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Pat Fitzmaurice’s Must-Have Players for 2023 (Fantasy Baseball)

Fantasy baseball managers tend to be persnickety in their player preferences.

In fantasy football, drafters are all chasing the same thing, more or less: yardage and touchdowns. We all have different angles on players, of course, and some people have positional biases. There isn’t much variation in the way people approach drafts — at least not compared with fantasy baseball.

In fantasy baseball, drafters have not only positional biases but also a variety of stat-category biases. Maybe you’re the type of fantasy manager who’s always chasing power or the type who’s really into stolen bases or saves. Some drafters wouldn’t think of drafting a career .230 hitter for fear of tanking their team’s batting average. Some fantasy baseball managers are prospect hounds; others avoid rookies and prefer veterans. Some managers are Statcast devotees obsessed with exit velocities, launch angles and spin rates; others pay little attention to advanced stats and focus on traditional metrics like K/BB ratio.

Like other managers, I have my own set of quirks. I tend to be a batting-average snob. I think K/BB ratios for both pitchers and hitters provide more actionable information than any Statcast metric. There are probably some other biases I’m not even aware of.

Allow me to share my player preferences with you. These are the hitters and pitchers I’m chasing in my 2023 fantasy baseball drafts and auctions. I’m including players at various price points, from the first round to the reserve rounds.

Fantasy baseball managers tend to be persnickety in their player preferences.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s Must-Have Players for 2023

First Round

Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE)

In leagues where you can toggle Shohei Ohtani between hitter and pitcher, he should be the first player selected. In leagues that don’t give Ohtani’s managers that flexibility, Ramirez is a logical candidate to be the 1.01. Positional scarcity plays into it: Ramirez offers bankable five-category production at third base, where talent drops off quickly. Ramirez has produced at least $35 worth of roto value in four of the last five years, falling short of that level in 2019 only because he missed a month with a broken hand. Entering his age-29 season, Ramirez is at the height of his powers.

Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA)

As a 21-year-old rookie, J-Rod hit 28 home runs, stole 25 bases, and slashed .284/.345/.509 in 132 games. What if Rodriguez was just getting settled in and climbs to an even higher level in Year 2? He had 16 home runs and 21 stolen bases at the All-Star break but was limited to 41 games in the second half due to injuries. A 40/40 season is within the range of possible outcomes for this extraordinary young player.

Freddie Freeman (1B – LAD)

Freedman left a WBC game with a tight hamstring on March 14, but I still like him as a late-first-round pick. As mentioned earlier, I’m a batting average snob, so I’m drawn to a line-drive machine who’s batted .295 or better in each of the last six seasons, with a .325 average and an MLB-high 199 hits for the Dodgers in 2022. Freeman has led the NL in runs for three straight seasons. He’s strong in the power categories and even chipped in 13 stolen bases. Like Jose Ramirez, Freeman offers premium production at a scarce corner position. Sit back and enjoy the laser show.

Early Rounds

Bo Bichette (SS – TOR)

The Jays’ 25-year-old shortstop has led the AL in hits in each of his first two seasons. Bichette delivers in all five offensive categories, and we haven’t seen his ceiling yet.

Jose Altuve (2B – HOU)

Altuve turns 33 in May, but the Astros’ little powder keg is aging gracefully. He’s averaged 29.5 home runs and 110 runs over the last two seasons, and he batted .300 last year. Altuve even started running again last season, stealing 18 bases — his highest SB total since 2017. Altuve’s ceiling isn’t what it used to be, but he’s still a value at his FantasyPros Consensus ADP of 30th overall.

Max Scherzer (SP – NYM)

We can’t count on Scherzer to devour innings like he used to — he hasn’t logged 200 innings since 2018 — but he’s still delivering quality, if not quantity. Scherzer has posted ERAs of 2.46 and 2.29 in the last two years, with sub-1.00 WHIPs in both seasons. The new MLB rules designed to speed up play are catnip for Scherzer, who’s been working at breakneck speed in spring training games. Expect another strong season from this 38-year-old warhorse.

Shane Bieber (SP – CLE)

It’s baffling that Bieber has an ADP outside the top 40. I could understand the hesitation to draft him in 2022 when he was coming off a 2021 shoulder injury. But the Biebs made 31 starts last year, worked 200 innings and posted a 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bieber’s strikeouts were down last year, but he posted the lowest walk rate of his career.

Cristian Javier (SP – HOU)

Javier’s stuff is filthy. He was nearly untouchable in a pair of playoff starts last year, giving up one hit and zero runs in 11.1 innings with 14 strikeouts and five walks. His postseason success followed a regular season in which he recorded 11 wins and had a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 30 appearances and 25 starts, with 194 Ks in 148.2 innings. The young flamethrower has been used judiciously to this point in his career, so that thunderous right arm should be fresh.

Framber Valdez (SP – HOU)

Why stop at one Astros starter? Valdez is a good old-fashioned innings eater who, at one point last season, produced an MLB-record 25 straight quality starts. He keeps the ball down, gets a ton of groundball outs and rarely allows gopher balls. Valdez also ramped up his velocity last year and averaged just under a strikeout per inning. Pitching for the Astros and working deep into games, Valdez is a good bet to be among the league leaders in wins.

Early-Middle Rounds

Jose Abreu (1B – HOU)

He hit just five home runs in 341 plate appearances over the second half of last season, torpedoing his power with a career-high 48% groundball rate. Even if we have to lower our HR expectations for Abreu to 20 instead of 30, this career .292 hitter is going to rack up a ton of RBI while nestled in the middle of a loaded Astros lineup. The nine-year veteran has had six 100-RBI seasons. Bet on a seventh.

Wander Franco (SS – TB)

This young hitting savant has sprayed line drives all over the field in parts of two MLB seasons, but he hasn’t provided power or speed … yet. Franco, who just turned 22, was sidetracked by a quad injury and a broken hand last year. I can’t wait to see what he’ll do over a full season. Franco is a good enough hitter to compete for a batting title, and while he might never be a prolific home run hitter or base stealer, he’s capable of chipping in 20/15 in those categories.

Joe Musgrove (SP – SD)

Musgrove’s ADP fell after he dropped a kettlebell on his foot a couple of weeks ago, fracturing his big toe. He’ll probably miss the start of the season, but he’s already ahead of schedule in his recovery, throwing bullpen sessions. Better a toe than an elbow or shoulder. Take the injury discount on a steady starter who’s turned in 36 quality starts over the last two seasons and has 15-win potential for a potent Padres squad.

Middle Rounds

Nick Castellanos (OF – PHI)

He’s coming off a disappointing first season in Philadelphia and hasn’t been hitting well this spring. But Castellanos told NBC Sports Philadelphia that his focus in spring training games has been laying off the low-and-away pitches that vexed him in 2022, and he’s at least been drawing a lot of walks. I’m betting on this professional hitter to figure it out and be a premium run producer in the middle of the Phillies’ stacked lineup.

Alexis Diaz (RP – CIN)

My closer strategy is to avoid big expenditures on the top-tier guys and instead zero in on a couple of cheaper options. Diaz is inexpensive because he’s young (26) and hasn’t held the Reds’ closer gig for very long. But the flamethrowing Diaz racked up 10 saves and 83 strikeouts in 63.2 innings behind a fastball that ranked in the 100th percentile in spin rate, according to Statcast. His control isn’t always impeccable, but Diaz isn’t likely to lose the closer role.

Chris Sale (SP – BOS)

Yes, Sale has been hurt a lot over the last five years. But when he’s healthy, he’s always good. Sale’s career ERA and WHIP are 2.92 and 1.04, and he’s a strikeout machine. With an ADP of 155 overall, Sale isn’t a particularly risky investment. If he gets hurt, just replace him and move on. But if he stays healthy all year, you’re apt to turn a BIG profit.

Late-Middle Rounds

Tyler Stephenson (C – CIN)

My favorite catcher target. He isn’t Johnny Bench, but Stephenson is the best-hitting catcher Cincinnati had had since the days of the Big Red Machine. Stephenson is such a good hitter, in fact, that the Reds are planning to also use him at first base and designated hitter to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible. It will also help keep Stephenson healthy after a 2022 season in which a concussion, broken thumb and broken collarbone limited him to just 166 at-bats. Stephenson batted .319 last year and has a career .296 average in 605 plate appearances.

Luis Arraez (1B, 2B – MIA)

As mentioned earlier, I’m a batting-average snob. The 25-year-old Arraez batted .316 last year and has a career average of .314 over more than 1,400 at-bats. He provides no power or speed, but Arraez will singlehandedly move the needle on your team’s batting average.

Jose Berrios (SP – TOR)

Berrios was awful last season. He had a 5.23 ERA in 2022 and was especially bad in road games (6.36 ERA). Some of it was simply bad luck, as 34% of the batted balls against him fell in for hits (the norm is around 30%), and his HR/9 rate spiked to a career-high 1.5. Berrios might never attain the level of stardom that some of us envisioned for him during his days in Minnesota, but I’m confident he’s better than he showed last season. His ADP is just beyond the top 200, minimizing the risk of betting on a bounceback.

Late Rounds

Michael Conforto (OF – SF)

Out of sight, out of mind. Conforto has an endgame ADP because he missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He smacked 88 home runs over a three-year span from 2017 to 2019, and he only just turned 30, so it’s not as if Conforto is on the cusp of retirement. You’re getting a bargain price on a reliable power hitter who’s slated to bat in the middle of the Giants’ lineup. Conforto probably won’t hit 30 HRs with San Francisco’s park factors conspiring against him, but 20-25 homers with 80 RBI is plausible.

Alex Lange (RP – DET)

The Tigers’ probable ninth-inning guy is dirt cheap because he has no closer experience and plays for a bad team. He has wipeout stuff, though. Lange struck out 82 batters in 63.1 innings last season and induced swinging strikes on 19.3% of his pitches.

Bryson Stott (2B, SS – PHI)

The Phillies’ young second baseman batted .188 over the first half of the 2022 season and .276 over the second half. He also had nine SBs after the All-Star break. Stott was a .300 hitter in the minors and should be a nice, inexpensive asset in 2023.

Reserve Rounds

Kenta Maeda (SP – MIN)

His price is at rock bottom after Tommy John surgery put him on the shelf for all of 2022, but we’ve seen plenty of pitchers come back from TJS as good as new.

Nolan Gorman (2B – STL)

The Cardinals’ second baseman of the future provides power at a position where it’s scarce.

Tanner Houck (SP, RP – BOS)

A starter candidate for a Red Sox team with rotation vacancies, Houck is an intriguing young pitcher who keeps the ball down and gets strikeouts.

Brusdar Graterol (RP – LAD)

This former grade-A prospect could be the closer-in-waiting for one of the best teams in baseball.

Bo Naylor (C – CLE)

Cleveland’s offense-first catching prospect should be a regular soon, and he’s one of the few backstops capable of providing SB help.

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