Do you know who has the highest offensive rating over the last eight games, both in the full court and the half court? That’s right – it’s the New York freaking Knicks. Sorry – fandom couldn’t control itself for a minute there. To business – we have a five-game Saturday NBA slate starting tonight at 7:30 EST and a couple with pretty big playoff implications. Let’s get to the picks.
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet 
Do you know who has the highest offensive rating over the last eight games, both in the full court and the half court? That’s right – it’s the New York freaking Knicks. Sorry – fandom couldn’t control itself for a minute there. To business – we have a five-game Saturday NBA slate starting tonight at 7:30 EST and a couple with pretty big playoff implications. Let’s get to the picks.
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Top Play
The game of the night pits two top East teams against each other in the Bucks and the 76ers. On FanDuel, the choice between Joel Embiid and Giannis is brutal, where they’re priced similarly, but it’s a lot easier on DraftKings, where Embiid sports a $1,100 discount. Both matchups aren’t great, as each team features a tough interior defense, but Embiid is averaging an elite 1.64 fantasy points per minute, and his 57.2 DK PPG is higher than Giannis’. The last time these teams faced off, Embiid had no issue at all, going 32-11-8 for 65.75 DK points.
Cash Picks
I was expecting Jimmy Butler to sit yesterday against the Knicks in preparation for tonight’s game against Atlanta. The fact that he didn’t could bring up some maintenance issues today, but this game is so big for the playoffs that Miami should still need to go all out. Butler likely has Deandre Hunter guarding him, which isn’t the greatest matchup, but it’s better than Tyler Herro’s likely matchup with Dejounte Murray. Butler is the catalyst behind Miami’s offense when healthy, and Atlanta ranks 24th against athletic wings this season while also ranking 21st in overall team defensive efficiency.
Dejounte Murray (ATL) ($7800 DK/$8500 FD)
This is more a “game situation” play than matchup-based, as Miami ranks third against opposing guards and is fourth in overall team defense. However, they are on the second game of a b2b (so is Atlanta), and the defense could suffer as a result. Murray is also simply too cheap for someone who is averaging a career-best in shooting and over 40 DK points per game. Playing alongside Trae Young will make Murray’s ceiling volatile from day to day, but his floor is strong for cash at $7,800.
Value Plays
Despite all the big playoff-like games today, the best one for fantasy production could very well be the Spurs-Rockets contest. This game pits two tanking teams against each other, who are also the two bottom-ranked teams in defense. Devin Vassell is sitting, and Keldon Johnson is doubtful in this game, and we’ve seen Jeremy Sochan step up this year in the absence of one or both of those two. Sochan just put up 47.75 DK points against Indiana and has a 20.7% usage rate without Johnson and Vassell on the court.
This is more of a DK-specific play, as Tyrese Maxey’s price rose aggressively on FD. Maxey put up 46.75 DK points in 38 minutes against Miami when Embiid sat the other night, and all eyes were on him in the next game to see if his role would plummet when Embiid returned. In actuality, Maxey’s usage slightly rose the next game (even with Embiid), and he scored 38 DK points in 34 minutes while hoisting up 21 shots. Milwaukee is vulnerable to the handler role in PnR, and Maxey’s price simply hasn’t caught up to his role on DraftKings.
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