The NBA season is winding down, so we want to soak up every ounce of DFS we can (and then baseball comes!). Tonight is a neat little five-game dance card that starts at 8 PM EST, and we have some key injuries that will impact the slate. Good luck, and follow me on twitter @jac3600!
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
TOP PLAY
Joel Embiid (PF/C – PHI): $11,500 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Kawhi Leonard flexed his muscle without Paul George last game, but it’s still Embiid that takes the top spot today. James Harden is unlikely to play again, and Embiid has a 39.9% usage rate and 31% assist rate without Harden on the court. Embiid is on “maintenance” watch himself after playing 38 minutes last night against Golden State, but all indications so far is that he’ll go. He’s well worth the extra $1000 over some of the other top studs on this five-gamer.
NOTE: Deaaron Fox is questionable tonight. If he’s out, Damontas Sabonis would arguably challenge for the top overall per-dollar value.
CASH PICKS
Jonas Valanciunas (C – NOR): $7500 DraftKings, $8000 FanDuel
Valanciunas is one of the most polarizing players in the NBA. He goes on a scoring binge, then gets injured, then has his minutes cut WAY back, and THEN goes back to being a production machine. Over the past four games, Valanciunas has led the NBA in DK PPG with 48.3 and has an insane 49.6% rebound rate in that span. The Clippers’ defense has plummeted as their pace has increased (the Westbrook effect), so this is another smash spot for JV.
Tyrese Maxey (PG/SG – PHI): $7300 DraftKings, $7400 FanDuel
Maxey is playing big minutes right now at 39.75 MPG over the last four, and he is another direct beneficiary of any Harden absence. With Harden off the court, Maxey experiences the highest usage rate differential on the 76ers (a 5.4% usage increase) and also averages 5.3 more DK PPG. He and Embiid do not correlate negatively and can be played together in all formats, especially cash.
VALUE PLAYS
De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG – PHI): $5800 DraftKings, $6500 FanDuel
Melton is a better value on DK as his price is getting a little uncomfortable on FD. There’s still room to unlock value at that price tag, though, as Melton has also been a big beneficiary of Harden’s injury. His usage rate increases by 2.8% with Harden off the court, and he’s played 35.25 MPG over his last four. On a five-game slate, it’s a lot more acceptable to have condensed lineups, and we’re likely to see some Philly-rich ones in cash.
Kevin Huerter (SG/SF – SAC): $5400 DraftKings, $6200 FanDuel
Huerter’s value is tied to DeAaron Fox’s status, but my gut says the latter doesn’t play (hamstrings are tricky and they need Fox for the playoffs). When Fox went down last night, Huerter stepped up to the plate with his scoring and broke the slate with 54.75 DK points. The matchup can’t get much better for Huerter tonight, as Utah has allowed the most FPPG to opposing scoring guards and have also given up the highest % of wide-open threes.
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
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