Opening Day for the 2023 MLB season starts with a bang, featuring 11 games beginning at 1:05 pm ET. The sizable slate creates a vast player pool to pick from. However, the following options will allow gamers to narrow down their choices.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The most expensive hurler on FanDuel is an excellent choice and a better bargain on DraftKings. The other three pitchers above have favorable matchups and betting information.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Corbin Burnes (MIL) at CHC
Burnes built up to 5.0 innings in his final spring start and pitched 19.0 innings in spring training. He also says he is ready to go.
Sadly, Burnes couldn't duplicate his 2021 NL Cy Young Award-winning campaign. Still, per FanGraphs, he had a 2.93 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 6.4 BB%, 30.5 K% and 32.1 CSW% in 33 starts spanning 202.0 innings.
The Cubs are a non-threatening offense with a few high-strikeout hitters to bolster Burnes' floor and ceiling. In addition, the betting info is ideal. Per Betting Pros, the game's total is only 7.5 runs, and the Brewers are -145 favorites. As a result, Burnes is the most exciting DFS pitcher in all game types.
Shane McClanahan (TB) vs. DET
The Rays didn't unleash their starters in their first trip through the rotation last year. However, McClanahan was stretched to 67 pitches in a 5.0-inning start to wrap up his spring training. So, he could push 80-plus pitches today.
The young lefty was lights out last year. In 28 starts totaling 166.1 innings, McClanahan had a 2.54 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, 30.3 K% and 32.8 CSW%. The young lefty should get off to a good start this year since the Tigers are still rebuilding and trotting out an unserious lineup. Thus, the Rays are -240, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 6.5 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
Blake Snell (SD) vs. COL
Snell isn't a model of consistency. At his worst, he's an inefficient hurler who struggles to throw strikes. Yet, the lefty can pile up strikeouts and mow down lineups when he's at his best. Moreover, the Rockies are toothless on the road, giving Snell a golden opportunity to shine.
Snell has a decent foundation to open the year after throwing 16.0 innings in spring training. He was also sharp in his tuneup turn, spinning six scoreless innings to close his spring training. The outstanding spring was a follow-up to a fabulous finish to the 2022 season. In 78.0 innings in the second half, Snell had a 2.19 ERA, 2.73 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 6.4 BB% and 33.8 K%. So, Snell's ceiling is sky-high and befitting of tournament usage. Finally, manager Bob Melvin encouragingly allowed San Diego's traditional starters to throw an average of 84.25 pitches and a median of 85.5 pitches in their first start last year. Three of the four starters in the sample threw at least 83 pitches, with a high of 92. Therefore, Snell could be cut loose today.
Max Fried (ATL) at WSH
The most significant concern for Fried is how long he'll pitch today. He threw only 14.1 innings in four starts in spring training and tossed just 3.0 innings in his spring training finale. Nevertheless, the lefty's spring excellence was undeniable. He had a 0.00 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 19 strikeouts.
And, of course, Fried was stellar in 2022. In 30 starts spanning 185.1 innings, the southpaw had a 2.48 ERA, 2.85 xERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.4 BB%, 23.2 K% and 27.4 CSW%. Washington's unimposing lineup is a plus for Fried's outlook, and the betting info supports using him in DFS. The game's total of 8.0 runs doesn't stand out, but Atlanta's -260 line makes them the biggest betting favorite on today's main slate.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves should be the chalkiest stack on the slate. Nevertheless, their ceiling is tailor-made for tournaments, too. Frankly, it's comical Patrick Corbin gets the ball on Opening Day, let alone in Washington's rotation. The lefty is cooked. He had a 6.31 ERA, 6.41 xERA and allowed 1.59 HR/9 in 152.2 innings last year. So, the Braves should have a field day and light him up this afternoon.
- Road (Kauffman Stadium)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPPs
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/MIN -155
The Twins did anxious DFS gamers a solid by announcing their lineup last night. So, barring a late scratch, the lineup above is accurate. It's a bargain group, even when accounting for the sizable salaries of the two most desirable hitters in the lineup. Zack Greinke's 3.68 ERA last year was exceptionally lucky compared to all of his ERA estimators. In addition, he had only a 12.5 K%, leaving him at the mercy of the vagaries of batted balls. And with MLB eliminating shifts, Greinke and other pitch-to-contact pitchers might be punished the harshest by the defense restriction. As a result, a Twins stack is fun at hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium.
- Home (Great American Ball Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPPs
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/CIN -140
Admittedly, Cincinnati's lineup is lacking star power. However, they have a few intriguing hitters, and Great American Ball Park's high-scoring and homer-amplifying park factors are perfect for bringing the best out of hitters. Further, despite Mitch Keller's late-season breakout last year, he's below average relative to the aces getting the ball today. Thus, the Reds are a sweet stack in tournaments.
- Austin Riley has a cushy matchup and hammers lefties. Since 2021, the slugging third baseman has a .371 OBP, .254 ISO and 151 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
- Ozzie Albies is another piece of exposure to washed-up Corbin. The switch-hitting second baseman had a forgettable and injury-marred 2022 campaign. Still, since 2021, Albies has a .242 ISO and 127 wRC+ against southpaws.
- Carlos Correa thrives in same-handed matchups. Since 2021, he has a .351 OBP, .190 ISO and 130 wRC+. Meanwhile, Greinke ceded a .325 wOBA to righties in 2022.
- Jose Miranda can take advantage of Greinke's mediocre-to-worse performance against righties. The bat-first corner infielder had a 110 wRC+ in 344 plate appearances against righties in his debut in The Show last season.
- Jake Fraley rips righties and loved Great American "Small" Park last year. First, since 2021, Fraley has a .367 OBP, .218 ISO and 132 wRC+ against righties. Second, Fraley had five homers, a .362 OBP, .223 ISO and 130 wRC+ in 105 plate appearances in GABP last year.
- Marcell Ozuna's Statcast data was markedly better than his results last season. However, he's primarily in this section because Corbin has no business starting in the majors. Righties torched him last year for a .373 OBP, .526 SLG and .388 wOBA.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves are the cream of the crop for hitters on Opening Day. Mixing in a hitter or two from Atlanta is encouraged even on rosters where gamers don't stack them. The Twins and Reds are also inviting sources for hitters and salary cap relief.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
