The Impact of Recency Bias in Dynasty Fantasy Football (2023)

Recency bias is a phrase that’s becoming more prevalent in sports, specifically fantasy football.

Think about it. Fantasy football (and football in general) is a weekly game of chain reactions. Sure, we have long-standing beliefs that impact our decisions. But often, we make start/sit or trade decisions based on past performance, and that’s due to recency bias.

Our friends at Wikipedia define recency bias as “a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones.” In other words, our brains are wired to more fondly remember or overvalue things that just happened. I know a handful of times where I’ve described a meal I had that was “one of the best I’ve ever had.” But as time elapses, our opinion on that experience changes. We have other meals that are as good, if not better.

Believe it or not, this same principle applies to this game we play too. We make decisions based on recency bias, whether it’s in our drafts, our starting lineups or in trade conversations. And while it’s important to factor in recent performance, there are ways to leverage recency bias as a tool in dynasty leagues.

Let’s discuss how you can use recency bias to your advantage in your leagues.

The Impact of Recency Bias in Dynasty Fantasy Football

Recency Bias During the Offseason

The season’s over, the dust has settled, and it’s time for a long offseason. But as the NFL Draft and summer arrive, it’s time to dust off your fantasy app password and reassess your team. I’ll often conduct a broad exercise where I’ll look at my team and mentally jot down whether the player had a good or bad season. It’s that simple. Sure, this is a top-level exercise, and there’s so much context that I’ll later evaluate. But I usually begin preparing for the upcoming season by looking back at what just happened.

Naturally, we look fondly on guys like Tony Pollard, who outperformed consensus expectations. But, at the same time, we curse players like Jonathan Taylor, who sunk our seasons because of injuries and a crumbling offensive line. But funny enough, Taylor was the toast of the fantasy community and probably the fantasy MVP just a season ago.

Funny how quickly things change, right? I’m not saying Pollard will go higher in drafts next season than Taylor, but I bet the gap will be much closer than we ever imagined it would be a year ago at this time.

We remember Taylor’s struggles. We remember Pollard looking like the better tailback in Dallas. Everyone will want Pollard, and everyone will be scared of Taylor. And the same goes for dynasty.

Recency bias presents us with buy-low and sell-high opportunities. That’s not to say our biases are always wrong. But it’s important to acknowledge the possibility that our brains are convincing us to buy into what we just saw.

I’m not actively shopping him if I have Tony Pollard on my dynasty team. But I’d be willing to listen to offers. Because of recency bias, his dynasty value might have reached its peak. He’s currently the RB14 in our dynasty consensus rankings.

Taylor may not be a true sell-high candidate, as he’s still the RB1 in dynasty rankings. But I bet there are fantasy players more willing to listen to a trade offer than they were a year ago. And I bet you the asking price for Taylor will be less than it was in 2023.

Take a fine-toothed comb through your roster to see if any players who might be sell-high candidates are coming off surprisingly good years. Then, do the same exercise on other rosters to identify players who might be devalued because of recency bias.

The Week 1 Effect

The days between Week 1 and Week 2 of the NFL season are filled with overreactions. After months of offseason speculation, Week 1 is our chance to finally get some tangible data points. We get to see how that rookie QB really looks. We find out how that star receiver is doing with his new team. We get to see real scores, real stats, and real outcomes.

There aren’t many better feelings than starting your season 1-0. There aren’t many worse feelings than starting the year 0-1. And when players overperform in a win or underperform in a loss, we tend to remember the emotions associated with those performances.

For example, last year in Week 1, I lost a game by less than a point because both Javonte Williams and D.K. Metcalf lost fumbles on Monday night. I was incensed. And the fact that I’m writing about this unfortunate outcome in March shows just how much it stuck with me.

Now, I wasn’t putting Williams or Metcalf on the trade block. But some people in your leagues who think more emotionally might. And that’s where you can swoop in and capitalize on a buy-low opportunity.

The same goes for players who go off in the early weeks of the season. For example, does anyone remember who the No. 8 wide receiver in fantasy football was in Week 1? Devin Duvernay — the same guy who finished the year as the WR53. People will overreact to big early performances, and Duvernay is an example of a player you could part with at the highest price possible. And it’s all thanks to recency bias.

Recency bias also makes Week 1 results more prevalent as the season goes on, as we’ll link and compare future performances to what the player did in Week 1. Use this when analyzing players both in starting decisions and trade considerations.