Now that the dust of free agency has settled, let’s take a look at running backs whose stock has risen over the last two weeks. Here are my fantasy football running back value risers post free agency.
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
Running Backs That Increased in Value
Here are my running back risers.
Rashaad Penny (PHI – RB)
Rashaad Penny inked a one-year deal with the Eagles reportedly worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed and a max value of $2.1 million. It’s not much but it puts him in a position to be the team’s early-down lead back in full Miles Sanders fashion. In his five games played before his injury in 2022, Penny averaged over six yards per carry. His only game where he failed to surpass 54 yards on the ground was against the eventual number one run defensive unit: the San Francisco 49ers. The on-field production and talent have never been in question with Penny. It’s just been the availability due to health that has been the big issue. Quarterback Jalen Hurts‘ presence at the goal line will obviously hinder Penny’s TD potential to some extent, but make no mistake that Penny’s explosive game means he can score beyond just the 5-yard line. Of his 14 career touchdowns, 11 have come on 10-yard-plus plays. Seven (50%) have been 30-plus plays from scrimmage.
Although it should be noted that the Eagles also re-signed Boston Scott, and Penny’s deal is worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed – less than Scott’s $2 million with $1.08 guaranteed. Interesting.
Miles Sanders (CAR – RB)
Miles Sanders signed with the Carolina Panthers reuniting him with many familiar faces from his days with the Philadelphia Eagles. Duce Staley (former Eagles RB coach), Frank Reich (former Eagles coach) and Josh McCown (former Eagles QB) have all seen what Sanders can do, and that surely played a part in bringing him on as the team’s 1-for-1 replacement for new Chicago Bears running back D’Onta Foreman. At a minimum, Sanders will operate as the main back on early downs, while Chuba Hubbard (RB62) and Raheem Blackshear split work on third downs. But I say at a minimum because those guys still have to prove themselves to the new coaching staff to earn substantial roles. Sanders has already proven his worth with these coaches before. And last year he showed everyone what he was capable of when he finished as the RB10 in half-point scoring overall/RB13 in points per game from Weeks 1-17. He ended the year averaging just south of five yards per carry and scored 13 rushing TDs after scoring zero in 2021. His carries inside the 10-yard line ranked inside the top five among all RBs.
And when Sanders saw his best-receiving usage to date – 50 receptions for 509 yards as a rookie in 2019 – it was under Staley’s tenure.
With Sanders’ uber-efficient rushing running behind an offensive line that finished 9th in adjusted line yards in 2022, Carolina is a great landing spot for him. His rushing alone should earn him production similar to what we saw from Foreman after the team traded away Christian McCaffrey. From Week 7 onward, Foreman sat as the RB21 in total points and RB22 in points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in total rushing yards (852). But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for over 110 yards in half of the last ten games while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of his others. His inconsistency was due to a lack of pass-game work causing him to be completely phased out of games that Carolina was out-matched in. But, I don’t think that will necessarily be the case for Sanders. The former Eagle has the chance to be a full-blown workhorse with an expanded receiving role based on the four-year, $25 million ($13 million guaranteed) commitment from his new team.
Samaje Perine (RB – DEN)
Denver signed ex-Bengals running back Samaje Perine – 2 years, $7.5 million, $3 million guaranteed – after releasing Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers) and moving on from Mike Boone (Texans). With Javonte Williams potentially delayed in return from his knee injury, I’d suspect that Perine (RB 46 ADP) picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. The Broncos have zero other RBs of note currently under contract. Therefore, Perine has the chance to provide immediate fantasy value to start the year after carving out a role in the Bengals’ offense alongside Joe Mixon last season. He served as the primary third-down back for the entire season. And when Perine got the starting nod from Weeks 11-13, the 27-year-old went OFF averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game. Perine is a legitimate threat to Williams’ workload as he could easily earn the passing-down work after finishing last season 6th in PFF pass-blocking and 14th in RB targets.
David Montgomery (RB – DET)
David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery’s 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty’s rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert’s 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th.
Even so, it’s hard to envision Montgomery as anything less than a fantasy RB2, with the highly-coveted goal-line role likely his to lose on his new team. Keep in mind that last season, Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line. Williams would finish the year with a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns. The scoring production fueled an RB12 finish for Williams.
A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will no doubt supply another season of solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams’ 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game (higher than Swift’s 10.3) and his newly signed contract suggest the team will be featuring plenty of Montgomery (RB27 ADP) at Swift’s expense (RB19 ADP).
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Damien Harris is now with the Buffalo Bills (replaced by James Robinson) which suggests that Rhamondre Stevenson‘s role/production in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 (RB13 in points per game) when Harris was either not active or not 100% when playing. Even when Harris played alongside Stevenson, the Patriots RB finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) among running backs. And remember Stevenson’s strong 2022 campaign en route to an RB10 finish was not fueled by touchdowns. In fact, Stevenson was one of the worst RBs converting from inside the 10-yard line as he scored just thrice despite 19 goal-line carries. His teammate Harris scored thrice from inside the 10 – on just 6 carries. If Stevenson experiences positive TD regression, he undoubtedly will build off a strong sophomore season. Fantasy managers should be rejoiced by the swap from Harris to Robinson after the latter was unwanted by two different teams and was benched in favor of an undrafted free agent Zonovan Knight with the Jets. Stevenson will be fine. And J-Rob likely prevents the Patriots from adding anybody else better. In the worst case, from the Stevenson perspective, Robinson operates in a Harris role. But recall that Stevenson was hardly scoring TDs anyway last season and still finished as a fantasy RB1.
Damien Harris (RB – BUF)
The Buffalo Bills signed Damien Harris (RB42 ADP) to a one-year contract to fill the void left by Devin Singletary. Bills general manager Brandon Beane stated earlier this offseason that the team wanted to add another back with more “size” to compliment smaller running backs like James Cook and Nyheim Hines. Harris, at 216 pounds, fits the mold of the bigger back that Beane was after, so it’s not a shock to see this deal completed.
Last season, the former Patriots running back was plagued by injuries, playing in just 11 contests – two of which he left early. And in his nine healthy games, Harris averaged just 8.8 fantasy points, 11 carries, and 49 rushing yards per game. He took a major backseat to the surging Rhamondre Stevenson, who operated as the RB1 in the backfield for the majority of the season.
Now with Buffalo, Harris’ best fantasy prospects are for him to land the Bills’ red-zone back role. He scored just as many times as Stevenson from inside the ten-yard line last season (thrice) despite being out-carried in that area of the field 19 to six.
In 2022, former Bills RB Devin Singletary totaled just four rushing TDs inside the 10-yard on 16 carries. QB Josh Allen is frequently deployed as a goal-line rusher which might limit Harris’ touchdown totals in 2023. However, we have seen quarterbacks run less at the goal line as they get older, so there’s still a chance that Harris flirts with double-digit scores should his arrival mean the team leans on him more as their preferred rusher near the pylon to protect their franchise quarterback in the long term.
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
Alexander Mattison smashed in most games that Dalvin Cook missed from 2020-2021. The Vikings RB2 posted five games with at least 23 touches over that stretch, including two games with 32 touches when Cook was sidelined. He averaged 23.7 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game in those contests. The problem in 2022, was that Mattison never got the opportunity to carve out a bell cow role because Cook stayed healthy for the entire season. Aside from the occasional goal-line touch, Mattison operated strictly as RB2 for Minnesota. And that hurt Mattison’s chances of boosting his stock in free agency as he settled in on returning to his old team on a 2-year, $7MM contract with $6.35MM guaranteed.
The 25-year-old running back was at least efficient in 2022 when he carried the ball, finishing with a career-high 84.2 PFF rushing grade which ranked 15th among 61 running backs with at least 70 carries in 2022.
And although, he’s never been a featured back for an entire season — the glimpses of him in a full-time role as a Viking shed some light on his potential upside should he ascend to RB1 status. Dalvin Cook has been a hot trade candidate, suggesting his days at the Vikings RB1 could be numbered. The team can save close to $8 million if they release him.
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