Now that the dust of free agency has settled, let’s take a look at running backs whose stock has fallen over the last two weeks. Here are my fantasy football running back value fallers post free agency. And here are those that have risen in value.

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Running Backs That Decreased in Value

Here are my running back fallers.

Alvin Kamara (NO)

Alvin Kamara had a year to forget in 2022 with QB/TE Taysom Hill seeing an increased role as a backfield rusher in the Saints offense. Hill earned more touches inside the 10-yard line (8 vs. 12) which limited Kamara to just two rushing TDs. AK41’s receiving usage also fell off a cliff toward the end of the year. From Weeks 13-18, Kamara never caught more than two passes. His target share fell from 22% to 11%. The days of him being a game-breaker as a receiver seem to be long gone as he has seen his pass-catching numbers fall off drastically compared to his first four years in the NFL when he was averaging nearly 90 receptions per year. The overall lack of TDs and receiving was heightened more so when Kamara’s poor rushing efficiency failed to make up for his loss in other production. The Saints running back ended the year second-worst in the rushing EPA (-41). Before the schedule eased up over the last four games, Kamara had just two games with 65 rushing yards. He still managed to finish as the RB15 in points per game (12.8), which might need to be his new fantasy expectation when he plays in 2023. Because there are serious question marks about Kamara’s availability in regards to a potential suspension on events from last year’s Pro Bowl. The general ambiguity will make him very risky to draft in the early rounds.

Dameon Pierce (HOU)

The Houston Texans looked like they struck gold with Dameon Pierce early on during the season, as the rookie running back looked like the early favorite to take home offensive rookie of the year honors with a hot start. Pierce stepped in and immediately became the team’s bellcow in Week 2. From that time until Week 10, Pierce ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards (739), averaging north of 19 carries and 92 rushing yards per game. He was the fantasy RB12 overall and in points per game. Other Texans RBs combined for just 11 carries versus Pierce’s 154 over this stretch.

However, the Florida product seemed to have hit a wall in the middle of the year, totaling just 16 rushing yards against Washington and Miami through Weeks 11-12. However, these two defenses would turn out to be some of the tougher matchups for all RBs, so that’s likely the cause of Pierce’s fall-off in production. The tackle-breaking machine more than proved that he still had juice left in the tank with two strong outings to conclude his season versus Dallas and Cleveland. However, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury that would knock him out for the rest of the season – just 61 yards away from 1,000 rushing yards on the year.

Despite the missed games, he still finished 4th in missed tackles forced and 1st in missed tackles forced per attempt (28%) among RBs with at least 100 carries. Pierce should lead the Texans backfield in 2023, but an entirely new coaching staff and Pierce’s 4th-round draft capital suggest that his undisputed workhorse role could change. Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Texans, presumably to fill the role of Pierce’s primary backup. Singletary totaled just nine more carries than James Cook from Weeks 13-Week 20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce).

Overall, Singletary probably won’t unseat Pierce as the team’s No. 1 rusher, but he poses a much bigger threat to Pierce’s workload than JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone, and Dare Ogunbowale. His PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) might get him usage on passing downs as Pierce struggled in this capacity as a rookie (32.3, 52nd). Although it does work in Pierce’s favor that Singletary has never flourished as an actual receiver, giving Pierce the slight edge on attaining a full three-down workload if he can shore up his pass protection in Year 2.

Singletary’s addition shouldn’t completely change the way you view Pierce as it was highly unlikely the team would add zero running backs between now and the start of the season. He’s not the worst running back they could have added, but he’s hardly a reason to fully fade Pierce for fear that Singletary will carve out a massive role on offense.

Javonte Williams (DEN)

Javonte Williams was limited to just 4 games in his second year after tearing his ACL, LCL, and PCL in Week 4 against the Raiders. The injury may end up being a blessing in disguise, as Williams may have struggled mightily in the Denver Broncos’ atrocious offense. Even before his injury, Williams ranked as the RB35 in points per game (9.0) despite ranking as the fantasy RB12 in expected points per game. And Williams’ underlying metrics were still elite, as his 116.3 PFF elusive rating ranked first among all RBs with at least 45 carries. Considering the time frame of Williams’ injury, the expectation should be that he is back by the start of the year, but the severity/complexity of his knee injury is eerily similar to J.K. Dobbins from the past year. Williams could easily come out of the gates sluggish, and the moves that the Broncos have made this offseason reflect that narrative. They’ve added Samaje Perine and Tony Jones Jr. to the backfield.

D’Andre Swift (DET)

2022 was another year of ultimate teasing by D’Andre Swift. The Lions running back came out of the gates red hot but got hurt. And when he returned, the Lions refused to give him the featured role in the backfield, opting to use Jamaal Williams as their goal-line battering ram instead. Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis – fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game, and 19th in yards after contact per attempt – but the lack of touchdowns and overall touches was soul-crushing.

Swift seemed to never be 100% healthy at any point during the year, which likely influenced his reduced role. With a full bill of health heading into 2023, Swift can still be productive in a potential top-10 offense. But his true fantasy ceiling will be limited with him taking a backseat at the goal line to newly-acquired running back David Montgomery. The former Bear signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery, which will no doubt fuel another season of solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams’ 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game (higher than Swift’s 10.3), and his newly signed contract suggest the team will be featuring plenty of Montgomery at Swift’s expense. Swift is entering free agency in 2024, and it’s pretty clear up to this point that they don’t view him as a feature back or as a piece in their long-term plans. Wouldn’t be shocked to see him get traded. The Lions also re-signed Craig Reynolds.

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