Rookie fever is in full swing, and it’s easy to get swept up in the hype on every player you come across. As fantasy managers, it’s easy to buy into the upside for every prospect and only see the best possible outcomes for each player.

The reality is that players bust far more often than we’d like them to, even in the early portion of rookie drafts. Only a few years ago, N’Keal Harry was selected ahead of fellow wide receivers AJ Brown and DK Metcalf in nearly every rookie draft.

Evaluating the prospect’s college film and weighing their analytical profile can help point you toward who you should select in rookie drafts. Still, there are so many other factors that come into play.

Scheme fit, an opportunity for playing time, and draft capital investment all come into play, and that’s before mentioning that this is an imperfect science and sometimes things won’t go according to plan. In other instances, a player could be much more valuable to their respective NFL team than they ever are for fantasy football purposes. As we approach rookie drafts ahead of the 2023 season, these rookies are in line to disappoint fantasy managers.

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Dynasty Rookies That Are In Line to Disappoint 

Quentin Johnston (WR – TCU)

Quentin Johnston will be regularly selected in the first round of rookie drafts, but questions loom about his NFL future. The most prominent question fantasy managers will have to ask themselves is will be the type of player who is better for his NFL team than he is for their fantasy team. In a class littered with smaller wide receiver prospects, Johnston brings more to the table from a size profile, but inconsistencies are evident in his college film. He profiles as a boundary receiver that we should expect to be utilized as a deep threat early in his career. While he has the skills required to be that player, he relies on catching with his body rather than his hands too often and has struggled with drops. If his best utilization is as a size-speed deep threat, we need to hope for him to land with a team where he is paired with a quarterback that fits that skillset. He’s still worth the risk in the back end of the first round of rookie drafts, but temper expectations.

Devon Achane (RB – Texas A&M)

After being one of the most explosive players in college football for the past few seasons, Devon Achane heads to the NFL as a big-play threat who can score any time he gets the ball in his hands. The concerns here are based on his size. We know a player can be smaller in height and weight and remain a fantasy contributor, but the reality that they ever hit their ceiling is limited. Achane measured in at the NFL combine at 5’8″ and 1/2 ” and weighed 188 pounds. Since 2000, only one player who weighed less than 190 pounds has recorded a 1,000-yard rushing season: Warrick Dunn, who did it four times in 2000, 2004, 2005, and 2006. The likelihood that Achane reaches a Warrick Dunn level of production is unlikely. The player Achane got compared to most often this past season was Chris Johnson, who was taller, heavier, and faster than Achane. Achane can still be a solid NFL player, but it’s most likely he is part of a committee and could end up disappointing, depending on how early he is selected in rookie drafts.

Kayshon Boutte (WR – LSU)

Things have been on a downhill slope for Kayshon Boutte since he broke out with 45 receptions and 735 receiving yards as a true freshman back in 2020. He’s failed to live up to the potential we saw in that season, which remains his highest receiving yardage output of his college career. His inconsistency at the collegiate level is also combined with the fact that he’s already had two surgeries on his right ankle, tested worse than expected at the NFL Combine (4.5-second 40-yard dash, 29″ vertical jump, 9’10” broad jump), and has been the subject of whispers regarding potential off-field concerns. There are times when you see Boutte ranked inside the top-10 wide receivers in the 2023 draft class, but there are better options to gamble on. Boutte is likely a Day 3 pick in the NFL Draft who won’t realize the upside we thought possible from his 2020 freshman season.

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