With just 45 days until the NFL draft, dynasty players are itching to see how the Scouting Combine and Free Agency are going to shape the landscape when it comes to rookie drafts. It, therefore, seems fitting to conduct an updated rookie mock draft.
For this mock draft, I have stuck to the traditional 1QB, three-round mock draft and randomized my draft position (I ended up in the No. 4 spot). I used the FantasyPros Draft Wizard to conduct this draft.
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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft 1 QB (Fantasy Football 2023)
1.04 – Jordan Addison (WR – USC)
The former Biletnikoff Award winner looks to be the consensus No. 2 wide receiver in this class currently. For me, he is not much of a step down from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and I am very happy to take him here with the fourth pick. It would not shock me if he were taken in the top three in most 1QB rookie drafts.
There is an argument that Addison has the highest floor of anyone in this receiving class. He broke out in his freshman year, aged 18, and is coming into the NFL, aged only 21, with three years of excellent production in college. Addison also managed a respectable 23.7% target share in college and amassed an astonishing 30 touchdowns. There might be other prospects with a higher ceiling. However, Addison is as close to bust-proof as any receiver is likely to be in this class. Expect him to go no later than early on Day 2 of the NFL Draft and feel comfortable that Addison, with his versatility and technique, will fit into most pro concepts and adapt very quickly in the NFL. A very safe choice for me at the 1.04 and one I will scoop up in all rookie drafts if offered to me.
2.04 – Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame)
The Consensus All-American in 2022 is a hot name in the dynasty community right now because he is easily the best tight end in his class. Voted the Notre Dame offensive player of the year and team MVP, Mayer hauled in 180 catches in his college career. He also managed to bring in 18 touchdowns.
Mayer is likely to go in the first round of the NFL Draft. This will represent enormous value to any dynasty player picking him at the 2.04 like I am here. Typically, I see Mayer being taken at the back end of the first round of a rookie draft. Regardless of whether you need Mayer right now on your team, taking him in this range, with his likely draft capital and range of outcomes, is a great value. You have to take him here. There are not many great separators at the position in fantasy football, and Mayer has all the tools and talent to achieve this. He also is pro-ready and will contribute in his rookie year.
Mayer will need to improve his blocking. However, he can line up out wide, he can line up over the middle, and he makes a man miss. However, he will need to improve his size and break a few tackles to become truly elite. This won’t be a problem when he gets drafted and put on a strength plan. He is still 21 and can develop his frame to put on more muscle.
While I don’t expect Mayer to return a top-six TE finish in 2023, I would expect him to be a top-12 TE. And I would expect him to elevate himself higher up in his second and third years, especially if he can get on the same page with his new quarterback.
3.04 – Eric Gray (RB – Oklahoma)
This just felt like a nice safe pick for this stage of the draft. While Gray is not the quickest back and is unlikely to make it as a lead back for an NFL team, the fact he continued to put on strength and muscle, improve his yardage, and is an excellent pass catcher, means he will have a role in the NFL.
It will be hard to find many third-round picks who will be on your dynasty roster a year or two from now. However, if Gray can land in the right spot as a productive third down, change of pace back, like Jerrick McKinnon was last year for the Kansas City Chiefs, you might find him hanging around for a while.
The fact that Gray is a late declaration and heading into the NFL Draft aged 23 is not a great start. However, for someone who can contribute to your roster for a couple of years, from 3.04 onwards, there aren’t many better choices for the position. Therefore, the only pivot you could make moves for a QB like Hendon Hooker, which I wouldn’t recommend, or for a wide receiver. However, for a good rotational running back body with upside, Gray looks like a good shot here in this spot.
Draft Steals:
2.11 – Marvin Mims (WR – Oklahoma)
I think this is a great pick for this late in the draft. There will be a team that falls in love with Mims’ profile. The fact that Mims is not even 21 yet, and continued to improve in each of his three years in college is huge. We have seen undersized receivers do really well in recent years, and I expect Mims to continue this trend of “undersized” receivers who could exceed expectations.
3.03 – Cedric Tillman (WR – Tennessee)
Tillman is one of the most athletic wide receivers in this draft class. His upside potential is huge. Not to mention, he managed a 26.9% target share and 14.1 yards per reception at Tennessee. To get a receiver with this high a ceiling in the third round is a gift from the gods. I am just sad he didn’t last one more pick. Otherwise, I would have rushed to select him to join my dynasty roster.
Draft Bust:
1.06 – Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)
The post-Scouting Combine hype after posting his workout metrics has caused all the value of Richardson to disappear and over-inflate his value. Richardson was a below-average quarterback who led the Florida Gators to a 6-7 season with a meager 53.8% completion rating and just 17 passing touchdowns. Yes, he did run in nine touchdowns to boost those numbers. However, Richardson’s decision-making made me feel like I was watching Jameis Winston all over again during the final flurries as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. He can control a game and then air a ball out into triple coverage without a receiver in sight.
There is no doubt with the right coaching, Richardson possesses the most fantasy upside. However, his mechanics and decision-making need a ton of work before he is ready to step onto an NFL field as a starter. To be drafting him at the 1.06 in a 1QB where it is unlikely he will start in 2023 is mind-boggling. Personally, I feel all the quarterbacks have been overvalued in this mock draft. I would expect one or maybe two to go late in the round. However, I would be shocked to see four quarterbacks go in the first round of a 1 QB rookie draft.
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.