The 2023 NFL Draft is still several weeks away. However, the No. 1 overall pick has been a hot topic for the past two months. Following the Houston Texan’s Week 18 win over the Indianapolis Colts, the Chicago Bears secured the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Alabama’s Bryce Young is considered the top quarterback and overall prospect in this year’s draft class. Therefore, it’s no surprise that multiple teams have contacted the Bears about the top draft pick. While several teams need a quarterback this year, there are three prime trade partners for the Bears: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Las Vegas Raiders.
Today, I look at what it would cost the Raiders to acquire the No. 1 overall pick.
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Expert Consensus 2023 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Draft Rankings: Top-50 
What It Would Cost the Raiders to Move Up to the No. 1 Overall Pick
Current Quarterback Situation
Following nine years with the franchise, the Raiders released Derek Carr a few weeks ago after unsuccessfully making a trade. They benched their former franchise quarterback late last season, giving Jarrett Stidham the start over the final two weeks of the year. While he had a couple of solid moments, the former Auburn quarterback is a free agent this offseason. If Stidham returns, it won’t be as the starting quarterback.
Las Vegas has been the center point of the quarterback offseason market. Reportedly they were the favorites to land Tom Brady before he retired. Meanwhile, there are conflicting reports about how interested the Raiders are in trading for Aaron Rodgers. Furthermore, Jimmy Garoppolo is a free agent this offseason and has a history with head coach Josh McDaniels. Las Vegas likely will be aggressive and trade up for a rookie quarterback during the draft if they don’t acquire a veteran.
Draft Capital
While is no hard and fast rule with trading draft capital, there are two trade charts. Jimmy Johnson created the original trade chart in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, Rich Hill made an updated trade chart several years later. I prefer the Johnson trade chart, but both are useful tools.
The Raiders have 11 picks in the 2023 NFL draft, including three in the top 70. Below, I break down the total trade value of the team’s 11 picks for both trade charts.
|
The Team’s Draft Picks |
Johnson Trade Chart Value |
Hill Trade Chart Value |
|
Round 1, Pick 7 |
1500 |
426 |
|
Round 2, Pick 38 |
520 |
157 |
|
Round 3, Pick 70 |
240 |
70 |
|
Round 4, Pick 108 |
78 |
30 |
|
Round 5, Pick 141 |
36 |
14 |
|
Round 5, Pick 144 |
34.5 |
13 |
|
Round 5, Pick 173 |
20.6 |
7 |
|
Round 6, Pick 202 |
9 |
4 |
|
Round 6, Pick 218 |
2.3 |
3 |
|
Round 7, Pick 221 |
1.4 |
2 |
|
Round 7, Pick 232 |
1 |
2 |
|
Total Number of Picks: 11 |
Total Value: 2,442.8 Points |
Total Value: 728 Points |
Potential Trade Package
According to the Johnson trade chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points. Meanwhile, it’s worth 1,000 points according to the Hill trade chart.
Even if the Raiders traded all 11 of their draft picks, it wouldn’t equal the value of the No. 1 overall pick. That means Las Vegas will have to include future draft picks or players to get a deal done.
One potential trade package for the Raiders would be to send their first and second-round picks this year (7th and 38th overall) plus their first-round pick in 2024 and 2025 to the Bears for the No. 1 overall pick.
While that seems like Las Vegas is overpaying for Bryce Young, it’s a similar deal to the one between the St. Louis Rams and Washington Redskins in 2012. The Rams traded the No. 2 overall pick to the Redskins so they could draft Robert Griffin. In return, Washington sent the No. 6 overall pick, the 39th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, plus two future first-round picks to St. Louis.
Furthermore, the Raiders are at a disadvantage compared to the Texans and Colts. If the Bears trade back to the seventh overall pick, they won’t be able to draft Will Anderson or Jalen Carter. However, Chicago could trade back with Houston or Indianapolis and still get one of those elite defensive players.
Fantasy Impact
Last year the Raiders had two elite fantasy players: Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. Meanwhile, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller have been fantasy stars in the past. However, one of them could get traded to Chicago in a deal for the No. 1 overall pick.
Young was an excellent player at Alabama despite not having the best-receiving core. In his two years as the starter, the star quarterback had 8,200 passing yards and 79 touchdowns. He also added seven rushing touchdowns during his time at Alabama.
Figuring out the Raiders from a fantasy perspective won’t be easy. The team added Adams last offseason. Unfortunately, Las Vegas didn’t get many games with Adams, Waller and Renfrow on the field. However, the addition of Young should make fantasy players excited to draft all three pass catchers next season.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
