Best ball season is here and in full force, bigger and better, earlier than ever. Since the start of March, these are the biggest risers and fallers in ADP, as the effects of the NFL Combine and Free Agency take full effect.
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Underdog Best Ball Strategy
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
RISERS
Rashaad Penny (RB – PHI) – ADP 123 – Up 58
As we come into the sixth year of Rashaad Penny’s NFL career it’s hard not to wonder what could have been if he’d managed to stay healthy more often. Penny is second all-time in yards per carry with 5.69 and in his last eight games averaged over seven yards per carry. Aiming to kick-start his career, Penny will have the opportunity behind one of the league’s best offensive lines in Philadelphia. The Eagles brought Penny in early during free agency and seem set to give him every opportunity to be the lead rusher, in best ball we can construct around him without the need for him to play every game.
Marvin Mims (WR – Oklahoma) – ADP 193 – Up 31
When talking about best ball as opposed to managed leagues we always want to be mindful of shooting for ceiling performances and Marvin Mims is the type of rookie who could deliver good spike weeks with the right landing spot. Mims can line up across any wide receiver formation and his 19.5 yards per catch in college screams out volatile fantasy scoring.
Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida) – ADP 147 – Up 38
The public refuses to miss out on the league-winning upside of dual-threat quarterbacks these days after too many people missed out on them in the past. Early on in the draft process Anthony Richardson seemed set to be a fringe First Round player but has now established himself inside the top ten of nearly all mock drafts, thanks in part to a lights-out combine performance. With the right landing spot, Richardson could be fantasy gold.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – FA) – ADP 137 – Up 24
After Odell Beckham Jr. failed to land a multi-year deal during the season, he elected to wait out the situation and now seems set to take advantage of a weak wide receiver free agency, along with a draft lacking some of the top-tier talents we’ve seen in recent years. Beckham recently held a workout for NFL teams and the drum beat seems to be getting louder that he’ll sign with a team soon.
Samaje Perine (RB – DEN) – ADP 151 – Up 23
The Denver Broncos need a solution at running back with Javonte Williams reportedly set to miss anywhere between a few games and the entirety of the 2023 season. Samaje Perine showed in 2022, while filling in for Joe Mixon, that he’s a more than capable running back, outproducing Mixon in forced missed tackles per game and yards per reception. Perine’s ADP will likely continue to fluctuate as we herd more news about Williams, but the upside case should keep drafters pursuing him until we have a reason not to.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – LV) ADP 174 – Up 19
Josh McDaniels was reunited with the one-time Patriots backup quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, bringing him to Las Vegas as McDaniels looks to stamp his mindset onto the Raiders in his second year. Garoppolo is not necessarily an upgrade upon Derek Carr, but he is cheaper and will stick to the script. Before now his ADP was suppressed due to landing spot concerns, now that we know he should start a good amount of games, even if the Raiders draft a rookie quarterback, he makes for a solid third quarterback on your best ball rosters.
David Montgomery (RB – DET) ADP 97 – Up 22
There weren’t too many teams that David Montgomery could have landed with to improve expectations around him, but the Detroit Lions will give him a great opportunity to be a more efficient running back in 2023. The Lions possess one of the better run-blocking offensive lines and have a Jamaal Williams-shaped hole in their roster, after letting him move on after scoring 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022. Montgomery has suffered with inefficiency at times in his career, but he’s an able pass-catcher and is still able to make defenders miss.
FALLERS
Zach Ertz (TE – ARI) ADP ADP 226 – Down 39
The Cardinals have plenty of issues to face as Jonathan Gannon takes on the task of reshaping them in his image for 2023. We have entered the part of the offseason where owners and general managers talk optimistically about recoveries from injuries and whatever they may say must be taken with a grain of salt. If Kyler Murray misses a sizable amount of the season then it will a big hit to all of the Cardinals pass-catchers and particularly Zach Ertz who is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, an injury that any player would struggle to come back from, let alone a 32-year old tight end who has often been beaten up.
Kayshon Boutte (RB – LSU) ADP 171 – Down 34
There is no doubting the electric upside of Kayshon Boutte but after off-the-field issues at LSU and a very poor combine performance, his stock is plummeting and unless Boutte finds an NFL team ready to invest a high draft pick into him, the fantasy world will likely remain skeptical of his outcomes. Boutte offers the kind of yards after the catch ability that could make him a great asset in best ball, but for now, drafters are okay missing out on him.
Daniel Bellinger (TE – NYG) ADP 226 – Down 26
The New York Giants traded for Darren Waller in an attempt to give Daniel Jones better options to throw to, after a difficult season in 2022 where their roster was frequently relying on depth players for large roles. Daniel Bellinger looked like a solid player in his rookie season but doesn’t offer the pass-catching upside that a healthy Waller could.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) ADP 99 – Down 14
The Saints didn’t seem to want to use Alvin Kamara near the goalline in 2022, often subbing in Taysom Hill once the ball got inside the 10-yard line. Now, they have added Jamaal Williams, fresh off a 17-touchdown season where many came from inside the ten, or even the 5-yard line. Kamara continues to face the prospect of suspension for legal issues, and his upside case continues to be harder and harder to find.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – FA) ADP 141 – Down 12
The Dallas Cowboys finally came to the decision that paying Ezekiel Elliott one of the top deals on the market simply wasn’t worth it as his play deteriorated and he was outplayed by Tony Pollard. With Elliott’s release, he’ll have the chance to find a new team, but very few teams will give Elliott 17.1 touches per game as he had in Dallas in 2022.
Devin Singletary (RB -FA) ADP 176 – Down 10
As the running backs finally started to get signed as free agency ticked on, it was perhaps surprising that we heard nothing about Devin Singletary. After four years in Buffalo, Singletary is looking for a new team and his lack of a market is concerning for his fantasy value. As the days tick on there are fewer and fewer good opportunities left for him to be a part of.
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) ADP 44 – Down 6
Five months ago Lamar Jackson was generating MVP talk, but after a dip in form and an injury ending his season for the second year running, there remains an air of skepticism around Jackson. With Jackson and the Ravens still deep in a contract stand-off, drafters seem wary of his current cost but if Lamar is to re-sign in Baltimore there’s a chance he could be a bargain compared to the likes of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes who all go two rounds earlier in drafts.
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