Why do we draft best ball teams this insanely early? The NFL Draft hasn’t been conducted. We don’t know bye weeks or schedules for these NFL teams.
Two reasons:
- Because we are degenerates.
- Because we love closing line value (CLV).
CLV is a beautiful thing. Every year a group of players are inappropriately priced by the market. Sometimes it’s because of a murky situation surrounding a player. In other instances, it’s because he burned fantasy managers in the previous season (or both).
In any instance, this creates opportunities to dive head first in early best ball drafts. There are soft ADPs in these drafts that you will not find as we move through the offseason. The cold sweat produced by FOMO should be creeping up your back.
Don’t let fear of the unknown allow you to miss out on this beautiful ADP smorgasbord on Underdog Fantasy.
*All ADP per Underdog Fantasy*
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)
(ADP: QB22 121.5 overall)
My Anthony Richardson comp:
Colin Kaepernick ??pic.twitter.com/kssZrEh2NW
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) February 23, 2023
Anthony Richardson is a steal in best ball drafts currently. While he’s unlikely to enter the top 12 at the position in ADP, he should easily be going in a similar range as high-end QB2s. The reason Richardson is being drafted as late as he is revolves around the uncertainty of his starting status in 2023.
As soon as Richardson is drafted, his ADP will climb, and if he’s named the starter coming out of camp, his ADP will be headed to the moon. Richardson’s passing numbers at Florida were stomachable when you marry them with his rushing upside. Last year at Florida, he logged 103 rushing attempts, 654 rushing yards, and nine rushing scores. With his 6’4″ chiseled frame, Richardson should retain a goal-line role in the NFL.
His rushing equity alone would give him an immensely high floor before we even add his possible ceiling outcomes for 2023. Over the last nine years, 21 quarterbacks have finished a season with at least 500 rushing yards while passing for less than 4,000 yards (minimum eight games started), and 85.7% of these signal-callers finished as a QB1 in fantasy points per game (38% were top-five in fantasy points per game).
If I knew Richardson was starting the entire 2023 season, I would have him ranked as a top-12 fantasy quarterback option because, as history shows, that’s close to his floor. Take advantage of his ADP in best ball drafts as a moonshot QB3.
(ADP: QB31 207.2 overall)
The Tennessee Titans could be heading toward a personality overhaul on offense under new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and Ryan Tannehill could be the primary beneficiary. In 2020-2021 Kelly directed a Houston attack that was 13th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate. While I’m not expecting Tennessee to become a high-flying attack, even bumping up to a league-average pace and passing rate will help Tannehill’s volume and fantasy outlook.
Tannehill is currently being left for dead in best ball drafts as a QB3. It’s easy to forget that he is only two seasons removed from back-to-back seasons as the QB9 in fantasy points per game. Tannehill’s deeper metrics last year scream that he can find this groove again. Last year he was 13th in true passer rating, ninth in red zone accuracy rating, fourth in under-pressure accuracy rating, and 12th in deep ball accuracy rating.
With Treylon Burks, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Kyle Philips playing full-time roles in their second seasons, Tannehill should have a decent supporting cast surrounding him before any further additions in the NFL Draft.
Running Backs
(ADP: RB25 82.0 overall)
Friendly PSA…
Cam Akers = League Winner
His ADP currently is RIDICULOUS.
(RB25 82.3 overall @UnderdogFantasy )Weeks 13-18:
72% of snaps or ^ in 5 of 6 games
19.1 touches & 101.8 total yds/gm
RB6 in Fantasy Points per Game??
11th (tied) in High pic.twitter.com/kndiCi0mIR…
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 26, 2023
Cam Akers’ ADP makes zero sense as I scream internally, “IT WILL RISE!” The Akers’ Achilles shade needs to be buried in the past where it belongs. Last year during a lost, late-season stretch run, Akers looked every bit the tackle-breaking workhorse back that the Rams thought they were drafting way back when.
In Weeks 10-18, Akers showed the world that his elusiveness had returned, ranking 21st in yards after contact per attempt, seventh in PFF’s elusive rating, and ninth in runs of 15 yards or more (minimum 50 rushing attempts per PFF, 44 RBs).
If we zoom in further, the numbers display an undervalued bell cow back for 2023 that’s being drafted at his floor. In Weeks 13-18, Akers failed to surpass 72% of snaps played only once, averaging 19.1 touches and 101.8 total yards. He was 11th (tied) in high-value touches among running backs while owning 100% of the carries inside the ten-yard line for Los Angeles. Akers was the RB6 in fantasy points per game during this span. Akers is a smash pick in drafts that fits any roster build.
(ADP: RB26 86.8 overall)
David Montgomery landed in an offense that was fifth in points per game, second in red zone scoring attempts per game, and fifth in yards per play last year. Montgomery should have plenty of opportunities to roll up touchdowns like Jamaal Williams did in 2022. Montgomery could easily return to his RB1 ways in fantasy this year (2020-2021: RB6, RB12 in fantasy points per game).
Detroit brought in Montgomery to play a workhorse role that he’s proved up to handling, which effectively buries D’Andre Swift, who has never proven up to the task. Montgomery has finished with at least a 60.3% opportunity share in three of his four NFL seasons, noting that he’s eclipsed 80% twice.
Swift’s best asset, which is as a receiver, is something that Montgomery has also exhibited skill with. Last year Montgomery was 12th in target share, eighth in route participation, and tenth in yards per route run among running backs. The remaining members of Swift’s hive don’t want to hear it, but Montgomery is proficient enough in the passing game that Swift likely remains parked on the bench for most passing downs.
All the elements are there for Montgomery to obliterate his current ADP in 2023. When the best ball community wakes up and realizes this, he will rise into the mid-RB2 range.
(ADP: RB31 99.2 overall)
My lord… a 9.42 RAS for the ??. OK. LFG.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 8, 2023
My beautiful buttery rhino looks like a possible second round pick in the NFL Draft. Round Two has become the new Round One in terms of draft capital, equating to early opportunity and tons of it for running backs.
Charbonnet showed the world that he could operate on passing downs, ranking 13th in PFF receiving grade and 31st in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets per PFF). While he might never be among the league’s best-receiving backs, he can be effective in this role, especially because it can help him seize a 70-75% snap share.
Add in his bulldozing ways on early downs, and we have the perfect combination of talent and upside that will rise once draft capital is known. Charbonnet ranked 14th in yards after contact per attempt and 22nd in PFF elusive rating last year at UCLA (minimum 100 carries per PFF). I can’t wait to watch the greased pachyderm pummel defenders at the next level.
(ADP: RB35 109.8 overall)
If rooting for Jamaal Williams is wrong…
I don’t want to be right. pic.twitter.com/SprUnKnSVz
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 26, 2023
The swaggiest interview in the NFL right now. Jamaal Williams has the hip gyrations and lovable personality that will make him a locker-room favorite in the Big Easy and a possible every-down back for at least a portion of the 2023 season.
Alvin Kamara‘s possible suspension still lingers in the air, which is why Williams was brought in. Williams is a dependable running back that can handle volume and pass block his butt off. Last year Wiliams ranked fifth in PFF pass-blocking grade (minimum 50 pass-blocking snaps), allowing zero QB hits.
Williams will never be an explosive rusher, but volume is king in fantasy, and Williams could get all of it for 6-8 games this season. New Orleans has only Eno Benjamin, Dwayne Washington, and Derrick Gore behind Williams on the depth chart. As soon as Kamara’s suspension length is announced (assuming it’s at least six games), Williams’ ADP will be a bump.
(ADP: RB42 137.4 overall)
Samaje Perine deserved more work last year in Cincinnati and is primed to see more in Mile High in 2023. Perine outplayed Joe Mixon at every turn last year, ranking 24th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 75 carries). He’s displayed an excellent three-down skill set over the last two years. In four games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps, he averaged 19.5 touches and 103.6 total yards with RB3, RB10, RB18, and RB2 finishes in weekly fantasy scoring.
Denver could need his three-down ability for an extended stretch in 2023, depending on Javonte Williams‘ health. Williams’ is still recovering from his devastating knee injury last season. With only Tony Jones Jr., Damarea Crockett, Tyler Badie, and Tyreik McAllister behind Perine on the depth chart, Perine should have no problem capturing a 70% snap share in any games Williams misses as well as having a stand-alone role when he’s active. Perine should be valued as an RB3 (high-end handcuff), and he’s not currently.
(ADP: RB55 183.0 overall)
Jaylen Warren is a MUST HAVE
In Dynasty & Best Ball
In 2022:
5th yds created per touch
16th breakaway run rate
18th YPRR (min 20 tgs)He’s THAT DAMN GOOD.
I know @jlarkytweets agrees.pic.twitter.com/cBHnOafuyr
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 7, 2023
Yes, Najee Harris will lead this backfield, but Warren made a fantastic case last year for more work in 2023. Warren was 16th in breakaway run rate, fifth in juke rate, and 18th in fantasy points per opportunity. Warren’s pass game prowess could easily force the Steelers’ hand next season into making this a full-blown committee backfield. Warren proved to be the better pass catcher of the two last seasons, ranking fourth in PFF receiving grade (Harris 32nd) and 18th in yards per route run (Warren 1.24, Harris 0.77).
In Weeks 5-18, Warren had six weeks as an RB3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring. The path to stand-alone production has already been laid, so he’s not a wasted pick, even as a low-end RB3 or RB4 in drafts. Currently, his floor and ceiling aren’t baked into his ADP at all. Warren also has high-end handcuff appeal as a three-down back if Harris misses any time.
Wide Receivers
(ADP: WR34 64.5 overall)
Marquise Brown is being drafted as a WR3 in Best Ball, and this is WRONG…as soon as Hopkins is traded.
Get ahead of the curve NOW!!!!!
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 27, 2023
DeAndre Hopkins remains a Cardinal for now, but I doubt that’s the case for 2023. As soon as Hopkins is gone, Brown’s ADP will float upwards.
Brown’s early 2022 usage is the easiest data point to his mispriced ADP. In Weeks 1-6, he was the WR7 in fantasy with a 26% target share, a 40.5% air yard share, and 2.00 yards per route run. Brown was Arizona’s alpha. He was 24th in open rate last year, immediately behind Jakobi Meyers (per ESPN analytics).
His ability to lead an NFL passing attack shouldn’t be questioned. Brown is a WR2 currently priced as a WR3 in early best-ball drafts.
(ADP: WR37 71.4 overall)
I already discussed Ryan Tannehill in this article, but I would be neglectful if I didn’t include his top receiver as well. Treylon Burks is staring down a sophomore season with tons of opportunities to put his disappointing rookie season in the past. Burks saw a 17.6% target share (45th) last season while ranking 35th in air-yard share and 32nd in yards per route run. With Robert Woods gone, Burks should be the clear number-one option for Tannehill.
While none of his 2022 box score numbers will inspire confidence in Burks entering year two, his 17th-ranked route win rate and 24th-ranked open rate (tied with Marquise Brown, per ESPN analytics) should. As soon as we reach the “best shape of their life” and training camp highlight portion of the offseason, Burks should bump up towards low-end WR2 territory in many drafts.
(ADP: WR46 90.0 overall)
Broncos HC Sean Payton "not trading" Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton: "We’re in the business of gathering talent"https://t.co/8WjIxp5VTh pic.twitter.com/Gsv2EIHWhA
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) March 26, 2023
Courtland Sutton was a big disappointment last year. Trust me. I get it, but it’s time to put those hurt feelings to rest. Sutton is dipping too far in drafts. He outproduced this ADP last year as the WR40 in fantasy points per game, so there’s a small bit of equity here, even if you think that his 2023 won’t look any better (it will) than his 2022 showing.
Sutton’s disastrous 2022 was not his fault. Sutton was 23rd in route win rate and tenth in win rate against man coverage (per Playerprofiler.com). He was also 12th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Whether we want to tie this to Russell Wilson or Nathaniel Hackett’s struggles as a head coach, I have faith that both Wilson and the scheme will improve in 2023 under Sean Payton. Sutton still has the talent to pay off on hope and hype of Wilson’s arrival. It will just come a year later than expected.
An encouraging quote from Payton or an offseason practice video clip is all it will take to jolt his ADP closer to his teammate Jerry Jeudy (WR22 43.9 overall).
Projected First-Round NFL Draft Wide Receivers
(ADP: WR42 82.9 overall)
(ADP: WR44 87.8 overall)
Zay Flowers (WR – Boston College)
(ADP: WR47 98.5 overall)
While I’m also a card-carrying member of the Jaxon Smith-Njigba fan club, Smith-Njigba’s ADP (WR28 51.1 overall) versus Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers is head-scratching. Each wide receiver is projected to carry top-24 pick capital per NFL Mock Draft Database. The closer we get to the NFL Draft, especially post-draft, these ADPs should even out more, with each of these three first-round wideouts creeping closer to WR3 status.
Quentin Johnston is a RAC specialist. His juice and his upper body strength make him a frustrating player for defenders to wrap up consistently. Johnston ranked ninth in yards per route run, 11th in missed tackles forced, and sixth in YAC per reception last season (minimum 50 targets per PFF). He could earn a 19-20% target share immediately in the NFL.
Jordan Addison has been a stud, ranking inside the top-22 FBS wide receivers (minimum 50 targets per PFF) in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run in each of the last two seasons. Addison is a fluid and silky-smooth route technician with versatility. He played from the slot in 2020-2021 (68.0-82.6%) before transitioning to the boundary (75.5% out wide) in 2022. Addison could lead his future team in target share in his rookie season.
Zay Flowers is an explosive player that plays bigger than his size. He should be a starter in two wide receiver sets in the NFL and an immediate WR2 in an offense. He played 65.8% of his collegiate snaps on the perimeter, which should push even higher than that at the next level. Flowers has route-running chops for days to get open as he sets up corners with nuanced routes, explosive speed, and multiple release packages.
Tight Ends
(ADP: TE7 84.8 overall)
Darren Waller is my TE2 for 2023.
The only TE I would draft over him is Travis Kelce.
Waller has displayed the ability to earn high-level alpha WR target shares and targets per route run in MULTIPLE seasons.
He could lead ALL TEs in Targets in 2023, and NO ONE…NO ONE…
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 26, 2023
The Giants’ passing offense has been built around their new elite tight end. Darren Waller could lead all tight ends in targets this season. He’s already displayed the ability to draw targets at this lofty rate in his career.
| Year | Targets (rank) | Target Share (rank) | Targets per Route Run (rank) |
| 2019 | 117 (3rd) | 23.8% (4th) | 29.3% (4th) |
| 2020 | 145 (1st) | 28.7% (1st) | 28.7% (2nd) |
| 2021* | 93 (8th) | 24.2% (3rd) | 26.7% (6th) |
*11 games*
When he was on the field last year, Waller showed no decline in efficiency, ranking 13th in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets per PFF). He was also first in yards per route run against man coverage (minimum ten man coverage targets per PFF). As long as Waller is being drafted outside the top-three tight ends in fantasy, he’s a huge value. This won’t last forever. This is why I’m gobbling up as much Waller exposure as I possibly can in best ball.
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