Andrew Erickson’s Must-Have Best-Ball Targets (2023 Fantasy Football)

There’s no offseason when it comes to fantasy football, especially with the increased popularity of the best-ball format. You can draft teams for the 2023 season right now in March/April. YLTSI. And with free agency in the books and the 2023 NFL Draft rapidly approaching, there’s no better time to start drafting with players transitioning to new teams and team-less rookies available in the player pool.

Whether you are a seasoned best-ball drafter or are just looking to get drafting reps in during the spring/summer, my following list of must-have best-ball targets will help you head in the right direction.

Let the best-ball mania commence!

• NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
• DBro’s Best Ball ADP Watch
• Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
• Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers

Must-Have Best-Ball Targets

Geno Smith (QB – SEA)

2022’s NFL Comeback Player of the Year will “come back” to the Seahawks for 2023 and beyond after inking a three-year deal worth $105 million with $40 million guaranteed.

The soon-to-be 32-year-old proved all his fantasy doubters wrong in his first year as Seattle’s fully-entrenched starter finishing as the fantasy QB6 while averaging 19 fantasy points per game (QB8). Chef Geno Smith was razor sharp from an accuracy standpoint, finishing first in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE). His 70% completion percentage led all QBs from Weeks 1-17. His accuracy was a trait I overlooked last season when Smith ranked fourth in that category (68.4%).

Consider me more bullish on Smith replicating his “unsustainable” passing numbers from a year ago because all we have seen from Smith in this offense is precision passing. Not to mention he offers a bit of rushing juice — over 21 rushing yards per game in 2022 — that fantasy managers covet. All in all, even if Smith regresses statistically to his expected output from last season, he would still be a backend fantasy QB1 averaging 17.6 expected fantasy points per game. His 32 passing touchdowns were hardly a major outlier amount, considering his 5.3% TD rate was eerily similar to his TD rate from 2021. It also only slightly trails Russell Wilson‘s career TD rate as a Seahawk (6.2%). With DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker at his disposal — plus many mock drafts have Seattle drafting a WR with one of their top draft picks (eye emoji) — Smith is far from short on weapons to repeat as a top-10 fantasy QB in 2023. I’d be buying the dip on his early best-ball ADP as QB17. He’s being drafted after Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Trey Lance, and Kirk Cousins. The only QBs that scored more points per game than Smith last season were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson.

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)

Nick Chubb just put together the quietest 1,525 rushing-yard season in recent memory. The Browns’ running back averaged 5.0 yards per carry (again) and posted a career-high 13 touchdowns. He finished the year as the RB6 overall with a top-10 backfield opportunity share (64%), but most of his fantasy production came before Deshaun Watson returned to the lineup. During Weeks 1-12, Chubb was the RB4 overall and in points per game. From Weeks 13-17 with Watson at quarterback, he was the RB23 overall and RB33 in points per game. These splits likely won’t carry over into 2023 based on Watson likely boosting the offense’s overall efficiency, making Chubb a near-bust-proof draft pick based on his track record of consistency. Chubb can also capture a more prominent role as a receiver with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson gone in free agency. 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford is pegged as the No. 2 RB.

In Week 18, Chubb played a season-high 75% snap share, ran a route on 71% of dropbacks, and caught 5-of-6 targets (22% target share) for 45 yards.

The NFL’s best pure rusher is being comically under-drafted in early best-ball formats as the RB9. He is my RB5.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

There’s no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets’ first-year running back was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game in just seven games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked fourth in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run.

The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for nine to 12 months. Although the latest reports suggest that Hall is progressing faster than expected and the team believes he could be ready for training camp. Just do whatever you can to get this guy on your fantasy team.

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

Christian Watson could experience a sophomore slump if Jordan Love can’t deliver in his first year as the full-time starter for the Packers. But I’d remain a buyer of Watson regardless, especially when his ADP dips after the Aaron Rodgers trade news to the New York Jets officially hits the draft streets.

And that’s because Watson was absolutely dynamite as a rookie. His 26% target rate per route run is nothing but impressive — 17th among all WRs with at least 400 snaps in Weeks 1-18. Watson’s 2.47 yards per route run ranked inside the top 10 — tied with superstar Davante Adams.

And in a must-win Week 18 contest vs. the Lions, he was once again the target leader (23% target share), going for 104 receiving yards on a team-high five catches. From Week 10 through Week 18, Watson ranked first in yards per route run (2.78). In Weeks 10-18, Watson was the WR9 in both total points and on a per-game basis in PPR.

If Watson takes over the downfield looks in 2023 that Allen Lazard saw the majority of in 2022 — seventh in the NFL in targets of 20-plus air yards (28) and 17th in red-zone targets — prepare for a massive second-year leap for Watson. On 21 Love pass attempts in 2022, Watson commanded four targets, catching three for 103 yards and one TD.

He’s the clear alpha in the passing game with the current depth chart listed out as Watson, Romeo Doubs, Samori Toure, and Josiah Deguara.

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)

Rookie quarterbacks are a bad bet for supporting viable fantasy WR production. That was my main argument against drafting Diontae Johnson in Rounds 4 and 5 in 2022 best-ball leagues last year, which turned out to be the correct approach. Johnson was disappointing with Kenny Pickett all season, failing to top more than 65 receiving yards or a weekly finish better than WR37. But in the case of Johnson for 2023, I’d expect a major bounce back for Johnson with Pickett entering Year 2.

Johnson’s ability to command targets — 28% target share and 137 targets (seventh) in 2022 — suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield targets and red-zone targets were the most of any player not to score in 2022. Those trends don’t tend to carry over from year to year. Buy low on Johnson. He was the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game. And per ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model, Johnson finished with the No. 1 open rate among all WRs in 2022.

Guys don’t post back-to-back seasons with 26% or higher target shares by accident. Johnson ranks sixth in target share since 2021. And yet he’s WR39 in ADP. He is currently my WR29.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)

What are we missing here, folks? Tyler Lockett faded into oblivion as a complete afterthought in fantasy football, being drafted outside the top 40 WRs in 2022 based on the Seahawks’ quarterback situation. Lockett would proceed to outscore his teammate, DK Metcalf, in 2022 as the WR12 overall and WR15 in points per game (22% target share). His current ADP is WR32 on Underdog Fantasy.

As noted in my WR recap and season advice article that I wrote after the season, you want to target top-tier WR2 talent despite a “lack of targets”, which is hardly even the case with Lockett. He’s proven he can earn his fair share of volume alongside Metcalf, and I can only envision his target share taking a massive hit if Seattle does indeed invest in a WR in Round 1.

I also believe Metcalf is a very strong target at the beginning of the third round (WR15 ADP) after he tied for second among all WRs in red-zone targets with Justin Jefferson from Weeks 1-17. The big-bodied WR also finished 18th in target share (25.5%) and 12th in air yards share (37%) in 2022.

Darren Waller (TE – NYG)

Being the No. 1 pass-catching option for a team as a tight end is a rare feat. There’s only a handful of teams that feature such a player, with the Giants being the newest to join the list after their acquisition of ex-Raiders tight end Darren Waller. The 6-foot-6 pass catcher came to Big Blue in exchange for a third-round pick, and he immediately should step in as the clear-cut No. 1 target for Daniel Jones. That was not the case for Waller last year, as he was fighting for targets with alpha Davante Adams. But Waller showed that when he was healthy that he could still deliver, ranking second in the NFL in yards per reception (13.9) and 10th in yards per route run. Waller “the baller” still has plenty left in the tank and should be viewed as a clear-cut winner post-trade. He has the chance to replicate his 2021 numbers when he was the No. 1 receiver in his offense, posting top-five fantasy tight-end numbers. And better yet, Daniel Bellinger‘s elite usage/route participation from last season in Brian Daboll’s offense as an every-snap player — 80%-plus snap share in six of the last seven games — suggests that Waller won’t leave the field. That will make it that much easier for the TE8 (laughs) in ADP to crest elite fantasy tight-end status.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio