We’re about four weeks away from Day 1 of the NFL draft, so now feels like a good time to publish another mock.
Here are my previous 2023 mocks.
- Version 1 (May 2022): Way-Too-Early Lookahead
- Version 2 (January 2023): Pre-Super Bowl
- Version 3 (February 2023): Post-Super Bowl
- Version 4 (February 2023): Pre-Combine
- Version 5 (March 2022): Post-Free Agency
Over the past three years, I’m the No. 1 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. Over the past four years, I’m No. 2. For obvious and selfish reasons, I prefer the three-year window.
Historically, I’ve done well betting on the draft.
- 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
- 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
- 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
- 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
Check out my 2023 NFL draft prop card to see all the bets I’ve made to date. As I make more bets, I will post them first in the NFL draft channel in our FREE BettingPros Discord and then write up my bets for publication. To get my draft bets as quickly as possible, join Discord.
In determining team needs, I’ve consulted Andrew Erickson’s excellent free agency and draft breakdown. For player insight, I’ve perused Matthew Jones’ unrivaled scouting reports.
A note: My early mocks include lots of analysis, but I no longer have time to editorialize the way I’d want, so this piece is pretty much picks plus assorted notes. If you want something with more substance, check out all our other mock drafts.
Note: The Dolphins forfeited the No. 21 pick because of the team’s “impermissible contact” with QB Tom Brady and HC Sean Payton when they were respectively under contract with the Patriots and Saints. Rather than list that missing pick below, I have moved what would have been Picks 22-32 to Picks 21-31.
2023 NFL Mock Draft
1. Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud (QB – Ohio State)
Stroud is now -330 to go No. 1 overall (at DraftKings). I don’t think he’s that big of a favorite in reality, but he’s the clear frontrunner at this point in the process.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young (QB – Alabama)
Young is the -250 frontrunner to go No. 2 (at FanDuel). I’ve had Young slated to the Texans for months.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson (EDGE – Alabama)
I’m betting that the Cardinals ultimately trade this pick.
Will Anderson Over 3.5 (-140 at DraftKings).
This is basically a bet that the Cardinals trade the No. 3 pick.
-140 = 58.3% implied odds: I think the chances of the Cardinals trading out of No. 3 are higher than that.
Also, I just want to get down some action.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) March 29, 2023
But for now Anderson is the co-frontrunner (along with QB Anthony Richardson) to be selected No. 3 at +125 (at BetMGM).
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)
5. Seattle Seahawks: Tyree Wilson (EDGE – Texas Tech)
6. Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez (CB – Oregon)
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Johnson (OT – Ohio State)
8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas)
I increasingly believe that Robinson — universally regarded as one of the true top-tier talents in this class — will go higher than he’s commonly mocked. He’s comparable as a prospect to the running backs who have gone in the top 10 over the past decade, and Falcons HC Arthur Smith feels like the kind of guy who would prioritize the position given the success he had as the Titans offensive coordinator with RB Derrick Henry.
9. Chicago Bears: Jalen Carter (DT – Georgia)
The Bears get lucky.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Lukas Van Ness (EDGE – Iowa)
11. Tennessee Titans: Will Levis (QB – Kentucky)
I can see Levis sliding down the board. He’s not as polished as Stroud, accurate as Young or athletic as Richardson. And if he slides I can see the Titans taking him in the event that they don’t trade up to take someone else.
12. Houston Texans: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)
After his excellent combine, Smith-Njigba is rightly -200 to be the No. 1 wide receiver selected (at Caesars).
13. New York Jets: Broderick Jones (OT – Georgia)
The Jets might ultimately trade this pick to the Packers for QB Aaron Rodgers, but for now they still have the pick and need help on the offensive line.
14. New England Patriots: Peter Skoronski (OT – Northwestern)
It’s almost impossible to predict what the Patriots will do, but Skoronski feels like the kind of hard-nosed versatile player who would appeal to HC Bill Belichick.
15. Green Bay Packers: Nolan Smith (EDGE – Georgia)
16. Washington Commanders: Devon Witherspoon (CB – Illinois)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter Jr. (CB – Penn State)
Chalk.
18. Detroit Lions: Myles Murphy (EDGE – Clemson)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Darnell Wright (OT – Tennessee)
20. Seattle Seahawks: Calijah Kancey (DT – Pittsburgh)
The Seahawks like to draft physical marvels, and Kancey might be Aaron Donald 2.0.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston (WR – TCU)
22. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Addison (WR – USC)
23. Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks (CB – Maryland)
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Branch (S – Alabama)
The Jaguars are a hard team to project, but they could use help in the secondary, Branch has some positional versatility and he’s likely to go in Round 1.
25. New York Giants: Zay Flowers (WR – Boston College)
26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame)
27. Buffalo Bills: O’Cyrus Torrence (OL – Florida)
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton Kincaid (TE – Utah)
29. New Orleans: Adetomiwa Adebawore (EDGE – Northwestern)
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Bryan Bresee (DT – Clemson)
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison (OT – Oklahoma)
Players on the Borderline of Rounds 1-2
Here are players I considered for inclusion in my mock draft. I expect this list to get shorter the closer we get to the draft.
- Dawand Jones (OT – Ohio State)
- Kelee Ringo (CB – Georgia)
- Darnell Washington (TE – Georgia)
- Will McDonald (EDGE – Iowa State)
- Mazi Smith (DT – Michigan)
- Jalin Hyatt (WR – Tennessee)
- Hendon Hooker (QB – Tennessee)
- John Michael Schmitz (C – Minnesota)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – Alabama)
More NFL Mock Drafts
- Matthew Freedman’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- Kent Weyrauch’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.0)
- Matthew Jones’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.0)
- Andrew Erickson’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- Mike Fanelli’s Mock Drafts w/ Trades (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0)
- John Supowitz’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0)
- Russell Brown (1.0)
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