We’re less than a month away from free agency, and there are many question marks surrounding some of the league’s top free agents. Let’s make some predictions across the league. Who gets traded? Who stays put? Who takes a pay cut?

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• Quarterback Free Agency Primer
• Running Back Free Agency Primer
• Wide Receiver Free Agency Primer
• Tight End Free Agency Primer

NFL Free Agency Predictions

Here are my top predictions for 2023 NFL Free Agency.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens can’t come to an agreement

The situation between Lamar Jackson and the Ravens has pushed far beyond uncomfortable at this point. The two sides don’t appear to be close to an agreement, and the Ravens must determine whether they are truly ready to enter a rebuild. If Jackson is traded, there is no free agent or trade partner available that will be an upgrade from Jackson. If the Ravens choose to part ways, the team will need to start fresh. They also must decide if the relationship with Jackson can even be salvaged at this point. Ultimately, I believe the Ravens will tag Jackson and try to work through a deal that satisfies both sides. But if they can’t agree, tagging Jackson gives the Ravens flexibility and trade options. Realistic trade partners include the Raiders, Jets, Colts, and Falcons.

The Jets and Raiders fight for Aaron Rodgers, and the loser signs Jimmy Garoppolo

The Jets and Raiders are clearly in the market for a new quarterback and have the assets to be an instant contender with the right quarterback at the helm. One of those options is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been a potential trade candidate for several seasons, but after a disappointing 2022, the Packers and Rodgers could finally part ways. A trade to the Raiders would reunite Rodgers with Davante Adams and an excellent set of veteran weapons. The Jets have a young, talented team in need of a strong veteran presence at quarterback. There could be other suitors, but these are the two most ideal and realistic landing spots. The team that doesn’t get Rodgers will still need a quarterback. Unless an unhappy superstar – such as Lamar Jackson – enters the trade market, Jimmy Garoppolo will be the next best option.

Zeke takes a pay cut, and Pollard stays in Dallas

This prediction is fairly straightforward. The Cowboys clearly love and appreciate Ezekiel Elliott and the contributions he’s made to the team over the years. Zeke has been the epitome of a workhorse running back and an invaluable asset. But there’s been a visible decline in his performance, and he just doesn’t have the juice to operate as a three-down back. Despite Dallas’ run-heavy approach, Zeke had the lowest attempts of his career at 231 for a career-low of 876 yards and another career-low of 3.8 YPC. Tony Pollard had career highs of 193 attempts, 1007 yards, and nine touchdowns. Zeke’s one strength was his short-yardage work which resulted in 12 rushing touchdowns in the red zone – second to only Jamaal Williams. Zeke can still operate as the short yardage and goal line back, with Pollard operating as the lead back. But he’ll likely need to take a pay cut to stay with the team. Dallas will either franchise tag or sign Pollard to a long-term deal, and the two backs will split carries with favor leaning towards Pollard.

Several free agent running backs take team-friendly deals, and big names get tagged

As mentioned in my previous article – dynasty players to trade before free agency – this year’s draft class is extremely deep at running back with both early-down, power backs, and explosive receiving threats. Teams can supplement their current backfields, build committees, or bring in future lead backs without having to spend significant draft capital. To make matters worse, several big-name backs like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs could be franchise tagged. As a result, the free agent market and potential landing spots might be a bit underwhelming. Running backs that don’t command significant interest in the market could opt to take team-friendly deals to retain their current positions instead of hitting the market where they could end up in bad committee and be the 2023 version of Chase Edmonds.

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