March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
In addition to projecting players this year, I’m also teaming up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game.
First Four Games Best Bets
Game Bets
Same Game Parlays
Player Prop Bets (Premium)
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2023 March Madness Player Prop Bets
Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh
Mississippi State
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Shakeel Moore Over 2.5 Assists | 120 | 1 | 1.2 | DK |
Pittsburgh
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Blake Hinson Over 4.5 Rebounds | -150 | 1.5 | 1 | UB |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. Southeast Missouri State
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Trey Tennyson Over 2.5 3Ps | 100 | 1 | 1 | UB |
| Isaac Mushila Over 26.5 PRAs | -110 | 1.1 | 1 | DK |
Southeast Missouri State
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Phillip Russell Over 4.5 Assists | -107 | 1.07 | 1 | UB |
Arizona State vs. Nevada
Arizona State
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Frankie Collins Over 15.5 PRAs | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | DK |
Nevada
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Darrion Williams Over 7.5 Rebounds | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | DK |
Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
Texas Southern
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Davon Barnes Over 12.5 Points | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | DK |
Fairleigh Dickinson
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Ansley Almonor Over 11.5 Points | -130 | 1.3 | 1 | DK |
Here’s what I expect to be my general flow for working and betting over the course of March Madness.
- Monitor our premium spread projections and total projections.
- Track any team-level bets I make in our BettingPros app. I don’t plan to go too heavy into this market since this is my first year with NCAA game projections.
- Do player projections (points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made and free throws made).
- Publish a premium article for every game with all of my player projections and prop bets. Since I don’t follow college basketball, I won’t provide any analysis with my picks, especially given the time crunch of March Madness. Just doesn’t seem worth it.
- Post some of my favorite player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord.
If there’s a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.
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Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
- #8 Maryland vs. #9 West Virginia
- #5 San Diego St. vs. #12 Charleston
- #4 Virginia vs. #13 Furman
- #6 Creighton vs. #11 NC State
- #3 Baylor vs. #14 UC Santa Barbara
- #7 Missouri vs. #10 Utah State
- #2 Arizona vs. #15 Princeton
East
- #8 Memphis vs. #9 Florida Atlantic
- #5 Duke vs. #12 Oral Roberts
- #4 Tennessee vs. #13 Louisiana
- #6 Kentucky vs. #11 Providence
- #3 Kansas State vs. #14 Montana State
- #7 Michigan State vs. #10 USC
- #2 Marquette vs. #15 Vermont
West
- #1 Kansas vs. #16 Howard
- #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Illinois
- #5 Saint Mary’s vs. #12 VCU
- #4 UConn vs. #13 Iona
- #3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Grand Canyon
- #7 Northwestern vs. #10 Boise State
- #2 UCLA vs. #15 UNC Asheville
Midwest
- #1 Houston vs. #16 Northern Kentucky
- #8 Iowa vs. #9 Auburn
- #5 Miami vs. #12 Drake
- #4 Indiana vs. #13 Kent State
- #3 Xavier vs. #14 Kennesaw State
- #7 Texas A&M vs. #10 Penn State
- #2 Texas vs. #15 Colgate
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