2023 NCAA Tournament First Four Games Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!

2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
2022: 243-210, +14.9 units

In addition to projecting players this year, I’m also teaming up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game.

First Four Games Best Bets

Game Bets

Same Game Parlays

Player Prop Bets (Premium)

PrizePicks Player Prop Bets

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2023 March Madness Player Prop Bets

Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh

All betting odds are from:

Mississippi State

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Shakeel Moore Over 2.5 Assists	120	1	1.2	DK

Pittsburgh

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Blake Hinson Over 4.5 Rebounds	-150	1.5	1	UB

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. Southeast Missouri State

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Trey Tennyson Over 2.5 3Ps	100	1	1	UB
Isaac Mushila Over 26.5 PRAs	-110	1.1	1	DK

Southeast Missouri State

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Phillip Russell Over 4.5 Assists	-107	1.07	1	UB

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game

Arizona State vs. Nevada

Arizona State

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Frankie Collins Over 15.5 PRAs	-115	1.15	1	DK

Nevada

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Darrion Williams Over 7.5 Rebounds	-115	1.15	1	DK

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game

Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

Texas Southern

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Davon Barnes Over 12.5 Points	-125	1.25	1	DK

Fairleigh Dickinson

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Ansley Almonor Over 11.5 Points	-130	1.3	1	DK

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game

Here’s what I expect to be my general flow for working and betting over the course of March Madness.

Monitor our premium spread projections and total projections.
Track any team-level bets I make in our BettingPros app. I don’t plan to go too heavy into this market since this is my first year with NCAA game projections.
Do player projections (points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made and free throws made).
Publish a premium article for every game with all of my player projections and prop bets. Since I don’t follow college basketball, I won’t provide any analysis with my picks, especially given the time crunch of March Madness. Just doesn’t seem worth it.
Post some of my favorite player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord.

If there’s a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.

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