While the 2022 NFL season is over, fantasy football is a year-long thing. Therefore, it’s never too early to look ahead to next year.
Today, I look back at the 2022 season, highlighting some of the top average draft position (ADP) values, breakouts and busts at the wide receiver position while also taking an early look at potential candidates in these areas for the 2023 season.
- Running Back Preview: Values, Breakouts & Busts
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Underdog Best Ball Strategy
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
- Best Ball Roster Construction Strategy
Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles 
Fantasy Football WR: 2022 Review, 2023 Preview
2022 General Review
Davante Adams is the only player to end the season as a top-five wide receiver in half-point points per reception (PPR) scoring each of the past three years. Furthermore, Justin Jefferson has finished as a top-five wide receiver in the past two years, including the WR1 in 2022. Meanwhile, no wide receiver averaged more than 18.2 fantasy points per game last season. By comparison, Cooper Kupp averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game in 2021, while Adams averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game in 2020.
2022 Top ADP Values
Over the final six weeks of the 2021 season, St. Brown was the WR2, averaging 20.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Then he had the first top-10 finish of his career last year, averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game, making him the WR8. Furthermore, the former USC star averaged 1.5 fantasy points per target and 15 fantasy points per game, removing the two contests he played fewer than 33% of the snaps last year. Over a 17-game pace, St. Brown would have finished the year as the WR6 with that fantasy average. That’s pretty good production for a wide receiver you likely drafted in the fifth or sixth round.
Everyone was scared to draft Cooper after the Deshaun Watson suspension news broke. Playing 11 games with Jacoby Brissett was far from ideal for the star receiver, especially since the veteran quarterback had averaged only one passing touchdown per game during his two years as a full-time starter. However, Cooper was a better fantasy receiver with Brissett than Watson. Over the first 11 games, the veteran was the WR8, averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Cooper was the WR23, averaging only 9.9 fantasy points per game over the final six contests. Sometimes it’s best better to be lucky than good.
2022 Top Breakouts
When the Jaguars signed Christian Kirk last offseason to that massive deal, everyone called them crazy. However, the veteran receiver had a career year in 2022 with 84 receptions on 133 targets for 1,108 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He improved by at least 10% in every receiving category over his previous career highs. Furthermore, Kirk ended the year as the WR11, averaging 11.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While the addition of Calvin Ridley will impact his target share and fantasy production, Kirk should remain a trustworthy WR2 next year as long as Trevor Lawrence is healthy.
All the talk in Philadelphia heading into the regular season was about A.J. Brown‘s projected impact on Jalen Hurts. While Brown ended the year as the WR5, averaging 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, Smith was right behind him. The former Alabama star was the WR9 in 2023, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Smith saw a 23.5% increase in targets last year from his rookie season. Furthermore, the second-year receiver averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game last year if you remove his zero catch Week 1 performance. So it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Smith has a better fantasy finish than Brown in 2023.
2022 Top Busts
No wide receiver had worse luck than Johnson last year. Despite finishing sixth among wide receivers in targets (147) and 13th in receptions (86), the veteran didn’t have a touchdown in 2022. Furthermore, 135 wide receivers had a touchdown last season, including the rookie Jameson Williams. However, the rookie receiver played in only six games, catching only one of his nine targets. Meanwhile, Johnson had 107 receptions on 169 targets for 1,161 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in 2021, all career-highs. Over the first three years of his career, the veteran averaged 6.7 touchdowns per season. Had Johnson scored six receiving touchdowns in 2022, he would have ended the year as the WR20, averaging 10.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.
After a disappointing 2021 season with the Chicago Bears, Robinson was a popular bounce-back candidate after joining the Rams. However, things didn’t go as planned. The veteran receiver had only 33 receptions on 52 targets for 339 receiving yards and three touchdowns in 2022. Robinson ended the year as the WR86, averaging only 6.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he scored more than eight fantasy points in only 30% of the games last year. Maybe the veteran can bounce back in 2023. However, Robinson is unlikely to get drafted in most redraft leagues after totaling only four receiving touchdowns over the past two years.
2023 General Preview
The wide receiver landscape is changing in the NFL. While Adams and Tyreek Hill are still elite fantasy players, we saw a few new names in the top 10 wide receivers last season. CeeDee Lamb (sixth), Jaylen Waddle (seventh), St. Brown (eighth), and Smith (10th) have seven years of NFL experience combined. Furthermore, Ja’Marr Chase would have had his second straight top-five finish if not for a hip injury that cost him four games. So no one should be surprised if a few new young receivers finish in the top 10 next season.
2023 Potential ADP Values
Last year the star receiver averaged 9.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, the lowest average of Moore’s career since his rookie season. However, he had a career-high seven receiving touchdowns after totaling 14 over the first four years of his career. Despite all the talk about Baker Mayfield taking Moore’s game to the next level, the former Maryland star averaged only 8.5 fantasy points per game until Sam Darnold took over as the starter. Meanwhile, Moore averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game and scored four receiving touchdowns in the six games Darnold started last year. If Carolina can upgrade the quarterback position in the offseason, Moore might have the first top-10 finish of his career in 2023.
While Tom Brady has retired, that doesn’t mean Evans will struggle for fantasy players. The former Texas A&M star has never finished lower than a WR2 any year of his career. Furthermore, Evans has been a top-17 wide receiver in half-point PPR, scoring seven consecutive years, including four top-12 finishes. Furthermore, the star receiver has had at least 1,000 receiving yards every year of his career. Kyle Trask won’t be the starter next year. Whether the Buccaneers sign Jimmy Garoppolo or bring back Jameis Winston, Evans will be an ADP value next season. Currently, the Tampa Bay star is the WR35 drafted according to Underdog ADP.
2023 Potential Breakouts
The 2022 NFL Draft produced many exciting rookie wide receivers. Unfortunately, Burks ended his rookie year as the WR79, averaging only 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he ended the season playing well. Despite playing with three different quarterbacks last year, Burks scored 10.5 or more fantasy points in three of the final six games. Furthermore, he averaged 13.7 yards per target and 12.9 fantasy points per game in his last three games with Ryan Tannehill in 2022. More importantly, he scored 14.6 or more fantasy points in two of them. The third game was in Week 13, when the receiver left the game with a concussion after playing only 10 snaps.
As a rookie, Collins had 33 receptions on 61 targets for 446 receiving yards and a touchdown. By comparison, the former Michigan receiver had 37 receptions on 66 targets for 481 receiving yards and two touchdowns in 2022. However, Collins put up those numbers in four fewer games. Furthermore, the big receiver has produced when given enough targets. He averaged 9.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 1.2 fantasy points per target in the seven contests with five or more targets last season. The Texans will likely upgrade the quarterback spot in the offseason. With Collins entering his third year in the NFL, don’t be surprised when he turns into a consistent low-end WR2.
2023 Potential Busts
Samuel has had one good fantasy year in his career. In 2021, the receiver was the WR2, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He has never finished higher than the WR29 in any other year of his career, and that was his rookie season. Furthermore, Samuel was the WR37 in 2022. Before you blame the injuries, the veteran was the WR25 on a points-per-game basis. After a career-high six receiving touchdowns and eight rushing scores in 2021, Samuel had only five total touchdowns last year. Meanwhile, Brandon Aiyuk took over as the WR1 in San Francisco, leading the team in receptions (78) and receiving yards (1,015) last season. Samuel is a one-year wonder, not a top-12 receiver.
Over the first six games without DeAndre Hopkins, Brown averaged 14.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, his production was volume based. The former Oklahoma star averaged 10.7 targets per game and 1.4 fantasy points per target during that span. Unfortunately, he struggled without Kyler Murray. Brown averaged only 5.4 fantasy points per game in the four contests he played without Murray. Furthermore, he played all four of those games without Rondale Moore and two of them without Hopkins. Even if the Cardinals trade away Hopkins this offseason, Murray likely will miss a massive chunk of the 2023 season. As a result, Brown will likely struggle next year unless Arizona upgrades the backup quarterback spot.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
