There are undervalued wide receivers throughout the Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts presently. The average draft position (ADP) for players will fluctuate throughout the offseason after free agency and the NFL Draft. Thus, it’s advantageous to soak up value throughout the offseason, and the following four wide receivers are excellent targets right now.
- NFL Free Agency Primers
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Underdog Best Ball Strategy
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
Undervalued Wide Receivers in February 2023
Christian Watson – Green Bay Packers: 43.5 Underdog Fantasy ADP and WR21
Watson didn’t hit the ground running last year. However, he used his freakish combination of height, weight and speed to torch defenses by the end of the year. Watson shined in Yards per Route Run (Y/RR). According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), only 20 rookie wideouts since 2013 have had at least 30 targets and 2.00 Y/RR. Watson burned defenses for 2.26 Y/RR. The following table shows his place among a supremely talented list of wideouts as well as the point-per-reception (PPR) points per game (PPG) and ranking among wideouts in their second season.
Sure, there were some misses on the table. Yet, all five wide receivers ahead of Watson in Y/RR who weren't in last year's draft class were a WR12 in PPR PPG or better in their sophomore campaign.
Watson was also a standout in yards per target. According to StatHead, Watson was 16th in yards per target (9.3 Y/Tgt) out of 86 rookie wideouts targeted at least 60 times since 2013. It's difficult to fake Watson's efficiency as a rookie.
Gamers might be concerned about his deep-ball usage creating weekly volatility. Per PFF, Watson's 14.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) was the 15th-highest mark among wide receivers targeted at least 30 times in the regular season and postseason last season.
However, Watson isn't a one-trick weapon. Per PFF, Watson had seven receptions on eight targets behind the line of scrimmage, 16 on 21 between zero yards and nine downfield, and 13 on 18 from 10 yards to 19 downfield. Additionally, Watson was a weapon in the red zone. Watson was tied for 20th among wideouts in targets inside the 20-yard line.
Watson also carried the ball seven times for 80 yards and two touchdowns. So, while he's used as a field-stretcher, he can score points in a myriad of ways. Green Bay's quarterback situation is unresolved, but Watson's a burgeoning star and should be drafted toward the middle to end of the third round instead of the middle of the fourth.
Zay Flowers - Free Agent (Rookie): 94.3 Underdog Fantasy ADP and WR46
Jalin Hyatt - Free Agent (Rookie): 107.3 Underdog Fantasy ADP and WR49
One of the joys of drafting best ball teams before the NFL Draft is taking advantage of ADP inefficiencies. Projecting prospects from college to the NFL is an inexact science. Even the sharpest draft pundits have plenty of misses on their resumes.
As a result, using a wisdom-of-the-crowds approach for projecting where draft-eligible players are selected is smart, and draft capital is crucial for rookies getting opportunities, impacting their ADPs in fantasy leagues. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the earliest ADP (57.1) among rookie wideouts. In fact, it's significantly earlier than Jordan Addison's ADP (74.5) as the second rookie wideout off the board. The third wideout, Quentin Johnston, has an ADP of 81.7, reasonably in line with Addison's.
There's an ADP tier break after Johnston, and Zay Flowers and Jalin Hyatt are the next rookie wide receivers picked in Underdog Fantasy drafts. Rookies enter the NFL at different places in their development and readiness to contribute to their drafting teams. Still, the gap in ADP suggests JSN should be the slam dunk first wideout off the board in NFL Drafts or a shoo-in to hit the ground running. Instead, according to Grinding The Mocks, an aggregator for mock drafts, Johnston has the earliest expected draft position (16.7), Addison is second (19.4) and JSN is third (19.8).
Only two more wide receiver prospects are projected in the first round. Hyatt and Flowers are those wideouts, with expected draft positions of 24.1 and 28.2. If Hyatt and Flowers are drafted in the first round, their fantasy football ADPs will likely climb closer to JSN, Addison and Johnston, making now the time to snatch up Flowers and Hyatt.
Hunter Renfrow - Las Vegas Raiders: 152.0 Underdog Fantasy ADP and WR66
Is Renfrow old? No. Did he suffer a significant injury last season that will impact his play this year? Again, no. Yet, drafters treat him like he's a washed-up veteran or damaged goods one year after Renfrow was tied for a WR15 finish in PPR PPG among wideouts who played at least 10 games.
Obviously, the Raiders traded for target hog Davante Adams before last year. Adams dominated the looks for the Raiders last year. However, there's still room for secondary and tertiary options to have fantasy value.
The Raiders' shifty slot wideout doesn't have to repeat his career year to be a value where he's selected currently, either. Renfrow was tied for the WR61 in PPR PPG in 2020 and was the WR55 in 2019, both better finishes than his present ADP as WR66.
Finally, there's a perfect-world scenario where Renfrow's ADP shoots up. The Raiders could acquire Aaron Rodgers. In fact, they're the betting favorites for Rodgers' next team. Rodgers would elevate Renfrow's outlook. Yet, it could be even better. The Raiders could include high-paid stud tight end Darren Waller in a package to land Rodgers, eliminating target competition for Renfrow. As a result, Renfrow's ADP is at its floor. Buying a player at their floor is a recipe for success. So, scoop up Renfrow now.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.