While the 2022 NFL season is over, fantasy football is a year-long thing. Therefore, it’s never too early to look ahead to next year.
Today, I look back at the 2022 season, highlighting some of the top average draft position (ADP) values, breakouts, and busts at the tight end position while also taking an early look at potential candidates in these areas for the 2023 season.
Tight End Preview: Values, Breakouts & Busts (2023 Fantasy Football)
2022 General Review
Congratulations to anyone who drafted Travis Kelce last year on winning your fantasy football championship. The superstar tight end averaged 15.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, the second-highest average of his career. Furthermore, Kelce scored 88.9 more fantasy points (5.2 per game) than any other tight end. His 261.3 total fantasy points scored would have made him the WR5 and the RB6. However, there were several other productive tight ends last season besides Kelce.
2022 Top ADP Values
Last year Hockenson was one of those mid-round tight ends no one liked to draft. However, he had a career year in 2022, with 86 receptions on 129 targets for 914 receiving yards and 172.4 half-point PPR fantasy points. Not only were all of those career highs, but the veteran tight end stepped up and averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game during the fantasy playoffs. More importantly, Hockenson became a fantasy star after he got traded to the Vikings. In the 10 games with Minnesota, the star tight end averaged 8.6 targets and 10 fantasy points per game. He should only improve after spending an offseason working with Kirk Cousins.
During his final two years with the New York Giants, Engram averaged only 6.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had only four receiving touchdowns in 31 games during that span. However, the veteran tight end had an excellent year in Jacksonville. Engram ended the year as the TE6, averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game. He had a career-high 73 receptions for 766 receiving yards. More importantly, the veteran was the TE1 over the final five weeks of the fantasy season, scoring double-digit fantasy points four times. Engram is a free agent this offseason, but many expect him to be back next year with the Jaguars.
2022 Top Breakouts
Njoku was a popular sleeper candidate heading into the 2022 season. The former first-round pick didn’t disappoint. He had a career-high 58 receptions on 80 targets for 628 receiving yards and four touchdowns. More importantly, Njoku ended the year as the TE13, averaging 8.1 half-point PPR fantasy points in 14 games. The former Miami Hurricane was the TE9 on a points-per-game basis last year. Unlike Amari Cooper, Njoku didn’t see his production drop when Deshaun Watson returned from suspension. The star tight end had three of his four receiving touchdowns in the six games he played with the franchise quarterback.
When streaming the tight end position, touchdown production is critical. Johnson had a career-high seven receiving touchdowns last season, leading the Saints. Furthermore, his seven scores were the third-most among tight ends. He had more receiving touchdowns than Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth, and Logan Thomas combined. More importantly, Johnson was the TE11 last year, averaging 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While his touchdown production made Johnson appealing to fantasy players, the New Orleans tight end was third on the team in targets and receptions last year. If the Saints can upgrade the quarterback position, Johnson should have his first career top-10 finish in 2023.
2022 Top Busts
While he wasn’t a bust in the traditional sense, Andrews failed to live up to his preseason ADP. The superstar tight end was a second-round draft pick in most leagues. He even got picked ahead of Kelce in some leagues last year. Andrews ended the year as the TE4, averaging 10.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran saw his touchdown production cut nearly in half from his TE1 finish in 2021. However, fantasy players shouldn’t worry. Andrews was the TE2 in the 11 games he played with Lamar Jackson, averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he would have been the TE2 over a 17-game pace with that fantasy points per game average.
A few years ago, Waller was one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Unfortunately, injuries have impacted his play over the past two years. Not only has the star tight end missed 41.2% of the games the past two years, but his production on the field has slipped. Waller averaged 12.5 half-point PPR fantasy points over his first two years as the starting tight end. However, he has averaged only 8.8 fantasy points per game over the past two years. Furthermore, the star tight end has only 1,053 receiving yards and five touchdowns over the past two seasons after totaling 1,196 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. At this point, Waller is a boom-or-bust low-end TE1 for fantasy players.
2023 General Preview
Will 2023 be the year Kelce finally starts to regress? At this point, you have to be a fool to bet on it. The future superstar has been the TE1 in six of the past seven years. So is he worth a first-round pick? Absolutely. Kelce averaged four more points per game than any other tight end last year.
Meanwhile, Dalton Schultz was the TE11 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest last season. Kelce averaged more than twice as many fantasy points per game. However, who is the TE2 behind the future Hall of Famer? That’s up for debate.
2023 Potential ADP Values
Despite placing the franchise tag on the veteran tight end, Miami barely used Gesicki’s skills in 2022. He ended the year as the TE22, averaging only 4.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the veteran averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Jordan Akins and Robert Tonyan last season. However, Gesicki averaged 6.1 targets and 8.2 fantasy points per game over the previous two years. More importantly, the veteran tight end is a free agent this offseason. Miami won’t bring him back, making Gesicki the top free agent tight end this year. Whichever team signs him will have plans on using the veteran. Unless he is in the top 10 tight ends, Gesicki will be a value at his ADP.
McBride was the first tight end selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. However, he played a limited role as a rookie, averaging only 2.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, there are reasons to be optimistic for next year. Zach Ertz will likely miss the start of the year as he recovers from a torn ACL. The star tight end might sit out the entire 2023 season, depending on the team’s record when he is healthy. With the veteran out of the lineup, McBride will step in as the starter. The rookie averaged five targets and six fantasy points per game in the seven games without Ertz. Furthermore, he averaged 5.5 targets and 8.4 fantasy points per contest over his last four games as a rookie.
2023 Potential Breakouts
Typically tight ends have a third-year breakout. However, fantasy players should be excited to draft Dulcich next year. While the former UCLA star was only the TE30 last year, averaging seven half-point PPR fantasy points per game, he flashed massive upside as a rookie. Over his first three NFL contests, Dulcich averaged 5.7 targets per game and 1.8 fantasy points per target. Furthermore, he scored double-digit fantasy points twice and eight or more fantasy points in every contest. More importantly, Dulcich scored a career-high 11.9 fantasy points in his final game last year. With Sean Payton on the sidelines, expect the Denver offense to be much more dangerous next season.
Despite being the 10th tight end picked in the 2022 NFL Draft, Okonkwo ended the year as the highest-scoring rookie tight end. The former Maryland star was the TE23 last year, averaging 4.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, Okonkwo averaged 3.8 targets and 6.8 fantasy points per game over the final 10 games of the year, making him the TE10 during that span. Furthermore, the former Maryland star ended his rookie season on fire. Over the final six games, Okonkwo averaged 1.9 fantasy points per target and 8.2 fantasy points per game, making him the TE8 during that span. With Austin Hooper being a free agent this offseason, Okonkwo will be the clear-cut start in 2023.
2023 Potential Busts
Pitts had a solid rookie season. Unfortunately, his 2022 season was a nightmare for fantasy players. He averaged only 6.2 fantasy points per game and missed the final seven contests with a knee injury. Despite his awful season, Pitts will get drafted as a top-five tight end next year because of the potential. However, the biggest question hanging over his head is the quarterback situation. He didn’t get to play with Desmond Ridder last year. Meanwhile, there are rumors that the Falcons could trade for Lamar Jackson. The young tight end could turn into a star, but he could also be a bust for the second straight season. Will I draft Pitts next year? Yes, but I’m also prepared to get hurt again.
Yes, Engram massively outperformed his ADP last year. However, he is currently getting drafted as the TE9 on average on Underdog Fantasy. While the veteran was the TE6 in 2022, averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game, Engram was a worthy start most weeks. He scored half his fantasy points for the year over a four-week window. In the other 13 games last year, the veteran tight end averaged 4.5 targets and only 5.4 fantasy points per game. Over a 17-game pace, Engram would have ended the year as the TE20 with that fantasy points per game average. More importantly, Calvin Ridley will join the Jaguars next year, cutting down on the available targets for Engram if he returns to Jacksonville.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.