ThriveFantasy Best Bets for Super Bowl LVII (2022 Fantasy Football)

ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.

Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to five props to win cash. Two correct selections pay a 3.2x times multiplier, three correct predictions pay a 5.2x multiplier, four correct picks pay a 10.2x times multiplier, and five correct picks pays an 20.2x multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.

The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NFL involves making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice (in case of emergency) picks.

Fantasy sports players, especially DFS players, have an edge when it comes to player prop betting. DFS players set lineups taking into account potential production when weighing competing options against each other. This is most pronounced with the NBA and the NFL DFS players. As such, diving into prop based DFS contests is a smart way to further monetize your knowledge. While the Contest Lobby requires you to select 10 different props, you can still make a return even if you do not get every over/under prediction right.

Instead of providing my full lineup, we will instead be shifting to highlighting the top plays to consider. These are Contest Lobby props that are good enough that they would be strong considerations if offered in the Prop Lobby.

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Top Plays

Travis Kelce (TE – KC): 78.5 receiving yards (100 More/100 Less)

78.5 market
79.9 projection
98 or more receiving yards in three of last six games
78 or fewer receiving yards in three of last four games
78.7 receiving yards per game on the season

Travis Kelce should have a big game in the Super Bowl, but the amount of yardage he may produce is extremely difficult to project. As we have all seen this season, Kelce has had multiple games with a yards per reception number under 10. It has happened four times this season, most notably back in Week 5 when he hauled in seven of eight targets for 25 yards and four touchdowns. However, he has also failed to top the 10 ypr mark in three of his last four games. It should also be noted that he has fallen between 10 and 11 yards per reception in four other contests. With that said, there is some appeal on the More, as our projection has Kelce pegged as 79.9 receiving yards for Super Bowl LVII, and the prop at ThriveFantasy sits equal with the market at 78.5. Kelce is one of the greatest receiving tight ends of all time, but with the Eagles defensive focus set to be on stopping him, this is a tough one to peg. Looking deeper into his numbers may reveal a tiny edge to act on. Kelce averaged 78.7 receiving yards per game on the season, but that number dropped to 73 yards per game in home games. With the Super Bowl played in a neutral site in Arizona, the fact that Kelce’s receiving yard numbers jumped to 83.8 on the road should be considered. As should the fact that Kelce averaged 92 receiving yards per game against the four NFC teams he squared off against this season. There is enough information for gamers to have a lean on either side, but the More is the direction we will be going this weekend. As mentioned before, our prop cheat sheet singled this out as one of the top values, and there is ample data that suggests that Kelce performs better when on the road and when facing the NFC. Tap the More if this is one of the props you choose to handicap for this weekend’s contest at ThriveFantasy.
Prediction: More

Travis Kelce (TE – KC): 6.5 receptions (75 More/125 Less)

7.5 market
6.6 projection
4.8 receptions per game allowed to TE’s by Eagles
Seven or more receptions in three of last four games
Eight or more targets in five of last six games
6.5 receptions per game on the season
7.47 receptions per game in playoff career

Kelce has been on fire for the Chiefs lately, racking up seven or more receptions in three of his last four games. As mentioned above, the yardage has not always been there, but the targets and receptions have. With that said, despite the trends that suggest the More is the play, it should be noted that Kelce has had to be incredibly efficient to manage those seven or more receptions. Those looking for a big point contrarian play may want to tap the Less on this prop. But for all others, Kelce hitting seven receptions may be one of the safer plays of the weekend, even if it only nets you 75 points for ThriveFantasy’s Super Bowl contest. While our projection is in line with the offered total, Kelce is offered at 7.5 on the market, which means that there is inherent value that fantasy gamers may want to attack. Kelce has averaged 7.4 receptions per game in the playoffs over his career and will be heavily leaned on regardless of coverage, especially with the Chiefs dealing with multiple injuries at the wide receiver position. Yes, the 75 points does not really reward the risk associated with the probability that Kelce is held under seven receptions, but this is also a number that Kelce can surpass in just one half of play. Follow your own lean or ignore this offering altogether, but we will be punching in the More for Super Bowl LVII.
Prediction: More

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – KC): 2.5 receptions (100 More/100 Less)

2.5 on market
3.1 projection
Key injuries to three different receivers
Six or more targets in three of last four games
Tied season high in targets (eight) in AFC Championship game
Tied season high in receptions (six) in AFC Championship game
2.5 receptions per game on the season

Marquez Valdes-Scantling seems all but certain to maintain his expanded role this weekend. Kansas City is dealing with multiple injuries at the position, with the most notable being Mecole Hardman, who has been placed on injured reserve. JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Kadarius Toney (ankle) both missed a complete week of practice, but with an extra week to recover, they should get questionable tags for the big game. It took a while for this total to hit the market, but it was eventually posted at a matching 2.5. We expected a number closer to 3.5 with Hardman out. However, the main issue with MVS, and the reason he was likely given such a low number, is his efficiency, or lack thereof. He has been held to a 50 percent or less catch rate in three of his last four games and will need a steady stream of targets to reach the six or seven he likely needs to record the three receptions needed. His 51.4 percent catch rate this season makes the More a risky proposition. With that said, MVS is slated to be the Chiefs’ only healthy starting wideout, and with the attention focused on Travis Kelce, and coming on the heels of tying his season high in targets, MVS should be able to have a big night. Tap the More for MVS for Super Bowl weekend.
Prediction: More

A.J. Brown (WR – PHI): 63.5 receiving yards (110 More/90 Less)

70.5 market
75.5 projection
88 receiving yards per game
70 or more receiving yards in six of last eight games
28 or fewer receiving yards in last two games

This was the most shocking number posted at TriveFantasy for Super Bowl LVII, especially when the 110 points on the More side is taken into account. A.J. Brown has been elite this season and should be in line for a massive game against a very young group of corners. Yes, gamescript could minimize his production potential, but even with the Eagles being the favorites, this is expected to be a competitive contest from wire to wire. 63.5 receiving yards is lower than we can find anywhere for this weekend, as Brown is listed at 70.5 on the market, while our prop cheat sheet has him pegged with a projection of 75.5 receiving yards. Brown has been virtually nonexistent in the Eagles’ road to the Super Bowl, but that’s what happens when you blow out your opponents and don’t have to pass the ball much beyond the mid-way point of the second quarter. While Brown has managed 28 or fewer receiving yards in each of his last two games, he has managed 70 or more receiving yards in six of his last eight games overall. A.J. Brown averaged 88 receiving yards per game on the season, and Jalen Hurts has played well enough this year that there should no longer be an unproven running QB discount on Brown’s prop numbers, especially with this game expected to be competitive. This is undoubtedly the best value of all of the available props to choose from for this weekend’s contest, so give the More strong consideration for your entries this weekend.
Prediction: More

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.