PGA DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Primer: Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2023)

After watching Jon Rahm implode in the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open, California native Max Homa wound up logging a six-under-par round to climb into the lead and win his fourth outright event in his home state. It was the sixth win of Homa’s career and the first one since he became a father. Clutch ball striking, approach shots, and putting allowed Homa to pull ahead of Sam Ryder, who entered Sunday with a two-stroke lead ahead of Rahm but ultimately logged a +3 finishing round due to a double bogey on the 15th hole and three more bogeys to fall short of his first career win.

My recommended prospects were a mixed bag at Farmers, so let’s briefly recap how they performed. Obviously, Rahm was playing his typical brand of clutch golf for three rounds before tanking on Sunday, while Sahith Theegala (T4) and Xander Schauffele (T13) both logged finishes inside of the top 15 to do their part in DFS lineups. Taylor Montgomery (T31) and Adam Hadwin (T44) played well enough to make the cut, but neither did enough to deliver a ceiling performance. Only Hayden Buckley missed the cut, starting six-under-par but then failing miserably with a +8 round on the second day at Torrey Pines. The two-course layout created unique challenges for players to overcome, especially when playing in the windy conditions on the South course, which is the more difficult track of the two in San Diego, California.

The PGA Tour will stay on the coast of California but head up to the Monterey Peninsula at iconic Pebble Beach. It’s a Pro-Am, meaning amateurs and celebrities will be paired up with professionals in the first few rounds, while additional separate events for charity drives will be held separately during Sunday’s final round. There are three courses in rotation at Pebble Beach, with each presenting its own hazards and layouts to conquer. The cut line won’t be enforced until Saturday’s third round concludes, with players competing at Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course on different days with rain and wind expected to be a factor. It doesn’t make it any easier that these courses are going to feature coastal winds and sloping Poa Annua greens that are surrounded by over 100 sand bunkers. Here are six of my favorite prospects to target when constructing DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel ahead of Thursday’s opening tee times.

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Previous Winners

2022 – Tom Hoge (-19)
2021 – Daniel Berger (-18)
2020 – Nick Taylor (-19)
2019 – Phil Mickelson (-19)
2018 – Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
2017 – Jordan Spieth (-19)

Relevant Betting Stats

Greens in Regulation percentage
Strokes Gained: Approaching the Green
Sand save percentage
Driving Distance

Course Overview

Pebble Beach has three courses that every player will have to play once during the Pro-Am this weekend. Let’s start with Pebble Beach Golf Links, which is the premiere course that will be the only one played twice, assuming players advance past the cut line for Sunday’s final round. It’s a par 72 track that comes up just short of 7,000 yards in length, while featuring Poa Annua greens that run 12 feet via the Stimpmeter. The greens are tiered and slope, creating additional hazards, but they are among the smallest on the PGA Tour, measuring 3,500 square feet, compared to the default 8,000 square foot greens on other courses.

Monterey Peninsula Country Club, or the Shore Course, is the shortest track at 6,934 yards and is the only par 71 amongst the three courses. It averaged 70.1 as the round score in 2022 and has five par 3s and four par 5s scattered throughout, with the majority of the par 5s featured on its back-nine. Lastly, Spyglass Hill is another par 72 that ranks as the hardest course to score low, averaging 72.1 in 2022, while also sporting Poa Annua greens on the shortest track, measuring 6.858 yards. Players will open up with a birdie opportunity on a par 5, while dealing with two par 3s in a three-hole stretch on the third and fifth holes respectively. All three courses demand precision off the tee, sand saving ability, and strong approach shots from the doglegged fairways.

Recommended Plays: DraftKings

DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000

Viktor Hovland: $10,300
25-year-old Norwegian golfer Viktor Hovland hasn’t played since logging a T18 finish at Sentry back at the beginning of January. Hovland hasn’t competed at Pebble Beach since 2020, when he logged a T38 finish, but he averages over five birdies per round, hits over 71 percent of greens in regulation, and inside the top 50 for strokes gained off-the-tee and around-the-green. Due to Hovland averaging over five birdies per round, plus averaging 102.6 FPPG on DraftKings, Hovland is a great investment for a blue-chip prospect despite entering an event that he hasn’t competed at in three years. Has also made all six cuts this season, so the floor is intact and the upside is worth the elevated salary.

Matt Kuchar: $9,400
Matt Kuchar is a veteran of the PGA Tour but he still has a lot to like when it comes to DFS roster building. He’s going for just under $9,500 on DraftKings and averages 72.4 FPPG, including finishing with 90.5 fantasy points on DraftKings during his most recent T7 finish at the Sony Open three weeks ago. Kuchar is a beast at converting greens in regulation (72.5%), ranks 20th in total strokes gained, including 34th approaching the green, and averages over 4.1 birdies per round. He’s 35/1 for an outright winner, which is fairly high in this field of 156 professionals, so take the value and acquire an under-the-radar prospect who will look to bounce back from missing the cut at Pebble Beach in 2022.

Brendon Todd: $7,900
Here is the first massive value prospect on the DraftKings slate. Brendon Todd is a 37-year-old American searching for his third T10 finish in nine events this season on the PGA Tour. Todd is solid at converting greens, ranked 69th at over 70 percent, averages 4.6 birdies per round, and is ranked highly in strokes gained putting, around the green, and putting. Todd logged a T16 finish at Pebble Beach in 2022 but he’s been a bit volatile, missing three cuts in eight events this season. It’s a calculated risk but at under $8K on DraftKings, Todd has a great opportunity to flood your lineups with points this weekend.

Recommended Plays: FanDuel

FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000

Jordan Spieth: $11,900
Arguably the highest profile golfer associated with consistent success at Pebble Beach is Jordan Spieth. He hasn’t won here since 2017 but he lost to Tom Hoge by two strokes in 2022 and has several other T10 finishes in previous appearances. Spieth hasn’t cracked a T10 finish yet this season, so expect him to be plenty motivated after imploding at the Sony Open, which was his last event back in mid-January. Spieth averages 4.4 birdies per round, hits 71.6 percent of greens in regulation, and is ranked 72nd in strokes gained putting. He’s a fierce competitor and is well-rested entering one of his most dominant events historically, which is why he’s 11/1 to win outright, making him the betting favorite alongside Matt Fitzpatrick. Pay up to land Spieth as an expensive blue-chip anchor in your FanDuel lineups.

Kurt Kitayama: $9,400
30-year-old American Kurt Kitayama is an intriguing play on FanDuel at $9,400. He missed the cut at Pebble last season but logged a T18 finish during his only other appearance at the Pro-Am in 2020. Kitayama has had a volatile season, drawing a runner-up finish at The CJ Cup back in October, while going T73 at Sony and MC at Farmers last weekend. He has the requisite skillset to perform well at Pebble, ranking 38th in strokes gained approaching the green, 19th in strokes gained tee-t0-green, while converting over 71 percent of greens in regulation. The birdie average of 3.94 leaves a bit more to be desired considering the 6x value a birdie holds compared to a par on FanDuel, however, Kitayama is a pure ball striker who has had past success at Pebble, making him worth a flier at a discounted rate on FanDuel.

Troy Merritt: $8,800
Troy Merritt is my favorite salary-saving prospect on the Pebble Beach slate. The 37-year-old American is not good at converting greens in regulation this season but he is ranked ninth in proximity from the rough, which is a big piece toward succeeding at Pebble Beach. He has a T3 finish at Mayakoba, which happened back in November, while his more recent form at the two events in Hawaii were disappointing. Maybe a week of rest will serve Merritt properly, as he logged a T4 finish at the Pro-Am in 2022 after going nine-under-par in the first and final rounds. Previous finishes at Pebble include T16, T25, and T8. He’s rock solid at this event and should be inserted into as many lineups as possible ahead of Thursday morning.

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.