The quarterback landscape is different than it used to be. Pocket passers can win in real life and provide outlier top-five fantasy seasons. However, the emergence of dual-threat quarterbacks has changed the archetype gamers should hunt for surprising breakout players at the position. A glance back at the last three seasons can provide insight into the requisite benchmarks for being a top-five signal-caller in 2023.
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QB2 with Top-5 Potential in 2023
Three quarterbacks drafted outside the top 12 in Underdog Fantasy’s best ball drafts are enticing options to surge up the fantasy rankings this year if everything clicks.
Anatomy of a Top-5 Quarterback since 2020
First, look at the top-five quarterbacks in points per game (PPR) who played at least 10 games in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Kyler Murray (25.80 PPG), Josh Allen (25.65), Patrick Mahomes (25.36), Aaron Rodgers (24.08) and Russell Wilson (23.64) were the top five in 2020, Allen (24.61), Justin Herbert (22.96), Tom Brady (22.61), Murray (22.57) and Mahomes (21.75) slotted in the top five in 2021 and Jalen Hurts (26.76), Mahomes (25.84), Allen (24.34), Joe Burrow (22.34) and Justin Fields (20.47) were the top-five signal-callers in 2022.
The vast majority of the quarterbacks listed above had value as runners. According to StatHead, Murray was second among quarterbacks who played at least 10 games in rushing yards per game (51.6), Allen was eighth (26.3), Mahomes was 11th (20.5) and Wilson was fourth (32.1) in 2020. Rodgers was an outlier, ranking 23rd (9.3 rushing yards per game). It was more of the same in 2021. Allen was third (44.9 rushing yards per game), Herbert was 12th (17.8), Murray was sixth (30.2) and Mahomes was eighth (22.4). Again, there was only one outlier. Brady was 30th (4.8). In 2022, Hurts was third (50.7), Mahomes was ninth (21.1), Allen was fourth (47.6), Burrow was 13th (16.1) and Fields was first (76.2). Thus, 13 of the 15 top-five quarterbacks since 2020 were 13th or better in rushing yards per game.
The outliers, Rodgers and Brady, had an MVP and an MVP-caliber season. So, it takes an absurdly high-volume and high-efficiency season as a pocket passer to crack the top five without chipping in value on the ground. Moreover, neither was a top-two fantasy quarterback.
Passing yards can be helpful. However, they’re not the be-all and end-all. Only one of the top-five fantasy quarterbacks in 2020 was in the top five in passing yards per game, three were in the top five in passing yards per game in 2021 and two cracked the top five in passing yards per game in 2022.
Instead, passing touchdowns were far more impactful for fantasy value. Four of the top-five quarterbacks in passing touchdowns in 2020 landed inside the top-five fantasy signal-callers, four (there were six quarterbacks in the top five for touchdown passes) checked both boxes in 2021 and three were within both top-five rankings in 2022. Therefore, only six of the 15 top-five fantasy quarterbacks were in the top five in passing yards per game, but 11 were in the top five for passing touchdowns. Touchdowns can be volatile. Nevertheless, high-scoring offenses can create touchdown potential for their triggerman. Still, rushing prowess was the most prevalent recurring theme for top-five fantasy quarterbacks in the previous three seasons. So, QB2s who can run are the best investment when chasing a breakout.
Late-Round Quarterback Targets: Sam Howell
Sam Howell – Washington Commanders: 189.4 Underdog Fantasy ADP and QB29
Howell is more likely to slide down Washington’s depth chart than to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback in 2023. Still, last year’s fifth-round pick will open the offseason atop the depth chart. Howell also played adequately in his only NFL start. He got the nod in Week 18 against the Cowboys, and Dallas wasn’t mailing it in.
Howell completed 11 of 19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Yet, his five rushes for 35 yards and a touchdown were more encouraging. Howell also showed passing and rushing ability at various times in his collegiate career.
First, Howell had PFF’s fifth-highest passing grade, 33 big-time throws, 10 turnover-worthy plays, 3,555 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 68.0% completion rate in 12 games for North Carolina in 2020. He also added 343 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 30 rushes that year. Then, after losing most of his top weapons, Howell’s rushing ability surged in 2021 while his passing production took a hit. Howell rumbled for 1,106 rushing yards, 8.1 yards per carry, 11 touchdowns, 4.76 YCO/A and 65 missed tackles forced in 2021.
Unfortunately, Howell’s workout metrics were underwhelming. Still, he had 35 rushing yards, seven after contact, 27 when scrambling and two missed tackles forced in his only NFL action. Finally, Howell has some intriguing weapons to work with in the passing attack. Specifically, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel are rock-solid or better options who bring different skills to the table. He’s an outstanding dirt-cheap target in best ball drafts now and a sweet last-round dart in managed leagues if the Commanders add minimal competition during the offseason.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.