PREMIUM

Late-Round QB Dynasty Startup Strategy (2023 Fantasy Football)

I caught a lot of flack last year for proposing a moratorium on QBs in dynasty startup drafts, even in Superflex formats. The need for one of the “elite” QBs is a demonstration in unrelenting thirst within the dynasty community, despite little to no evidence that having one ensures victory. In fact, if you drafted one or both of your starting QBs after grabbing a few elite skill players last season, you might have ended up with Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa. Those “surprises” of 2022 ended up as QB5 and QB10 in fantasy points per game (minimum 11 games). You can check out the whole article right here.

Although quite different, Single-QB and Superflex leagues favor the top-tier QBs like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Although there is certainly not much of an argument that those players hurt a fantasy team, the draft capital spent on them is disproportionate to their scoring over a later replacement. Using a first-round pick on Justin Jefferson or Travis Kelce in Superflex would have offered a massive positional advantage that QB would not have reflected. It’s risky, but the Late-Round QB strategy certainly has merit. With a fresh crop of talent in the 2023 draft class, there is even more edge to it in a startup draft this offseason.

Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles

Late-Round QB Dynasty Startup Strategy

Tips for finding quarterbacks in later rounds of your dynasty draft.

Slippery Slope

If you have the intestinal fortitude to employ this strategy, who are the targets? I suppose the tier of QB targets would depend on the draft order. Picking on either turn does not afford one the control over the board and starting a QB run is better than flailing at the back end of one. Once the top-4 QBs come off the board in a pretty condensed top tier, there is another clearly defined second tier that includes Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence. The top tier will be undoubtedly scooped right off the bat in Superflex, with the second tier still mostly occurring in the first round. By all means, don’t feel bad about picking any of the top-4 if given the opportunity. At the same time, the second tier is a better value in Single-QB leagues than in Superflex.

The third tier is my target in Superflex. Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott are seeing deflated dynasty values, which bodes well for their explosive upside and stable contract situations. I am also keen on Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa for 2023 and beyond. Detroit and Miami were both surprisingly good offensive teams in 2022, thanks to strong marriages between the QBs, elite weaponry, and offensive coaching. Goff has been given a clear vote of confidence in the Motor City, while Tua’s long-term health prospects are more hopeful the closer you listen to the man himself and his inner circle.

After the third tier comes some investments with lofty potential and treacherous risk. Both CJ Stroud and Bryce Young are currently undervalued in startups. They are immediately starter-quality assets in the NFL. Another QB who climbed the ranks in 2022, but is seeing temperate interest in dynasty this offseason is Daniel Jones. For some reason, few are investing in a player who put up seven QB1 performances in 2022 without a smidge of WR talent. New York will undoubtedly add a weapon or two to this receiving corps for 2023 and Brian Daboll absolutely deserved to be Coach of the Year for the work he did with 25-year-old Jones.

Break Glass in Case of Emergency

No, you don’t need a second QB on your roster right now in Single-QB dynasty (or a third in Superflex). Personally, I’d much prefer that roster spot be filled by another skill player. The risk-averse will preach that warm, fuzzy feeling they get from clogging their roster with an extra QB for bye weeks and injuries. Streaming is easy in Single-QB and Superflex allows for another position to inhabit the final starting spot should a QB not be available.

For those of you who can’t fathom taking that chance, I’d look to some young talents with a long way to go to fill that spot. Sam Howell is a QB that was easily my favorite from the 2022 class and the Commanders appear to be giving him a shot to win the job. Anthony Richardson is much preferred to Will Levis in my 2023 evaluations. He has immense talent and his supposed weaknesses have been disrespectfully exaggerated. Finally, I can’t quit my love for Fresno State rookie Jake Haener in deeper leagues. He will land on many of my taxi squads after I promote Howell.

Scoring Points

The Late-Round QB strategy for redraft has shaped the landscape for a long time now. JJ Zachariason’s work has inspired many fantasy managers to curate countless championship rosters. Dynasty leagues offer more nuance and room for optimism to blossom into glory. Elite skill players simply provide more replacement value than QBs, even in Superflex where that effect is mitigated. Good things come to those who wait and watch league-winning QBs fall right into their lap.

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.