Late-Round Best Ball Targets: Zach Charbonnet (2023 Fantasy Football)

It’s game-changing for a fantasy squad’s outlook when they land an RB1 drafted significantly lower than a top-12 RB’s average draft position (ADP). But how can gamers identify an RB3 or lower capable of an RB1 finish? Looking at RB1s in the last three years can paint a picture of the boxes a potential RB1 needs to check. The following players can exceed the expectations for their Underdog Fantasy half-point point-per-reception (PPR) ADP and rank among running backs.

RB3 with RB1 Potential in 2023

Three running backs drafted outside the top-24 running backs in Underdog Fantasy’s best ball drafts have the profile befitting a potential RB1 in 2023.

Anatomy of an RB1 since 2020

Running back is a position frequently depleted by injuries. As a result, a survivor bias often allows a few running backs to sneak into the top 12 in total points every season by merely playing in all 16 games (15 in 2020) at a rock-solid level during the fantasy season. Yet, it doesn’t paint the most accurate picture. At the same time, using only points per game without accounting for games played is a flawed decision. So, I’ve split the difference.

The following tables show the half-point PPR point-per-game (PPG) running back leaders in the previous three years who played at least 10 games. Gamers can check out the full listing for fantasy leaders in 2022, 2021, and 2020 on our Fantasy Football Leaders page. There were 38 running backs who were top-12 PPG scorers during those three years because of a three-player tie for RB12 in 2022.

Touchdowns are a nifty path to an RB1 finish. In the last three years, 27 RB1s had at least 10 touchdowns. But touchdowns weren't the most common theme among RB1s. Most of the running backs had at least some role in the passing game, with 33 running backs averaging at least 2.1 receptions per game.

Understandably, the best fantasy backs churned out yardage. All 38 running backs averaged at least 72 scrimmage yards per game, and 32 had at least 80. Obviously, there's a sliding scale for receptions and scrimmage yards needed to offset a modest touchdown output. So, 10 of the 11 running backs who were RB1s and didn't score at least 10 touchdowns had at least 82 scrimmage yards, seven had more than 89 scrimmage yards, three had more than 100 scrimmage yards, 10 had at least 2.5 receptions per game, eight had at least 3.5 receptions per game and four had at least 4.1 receptions per game. Thus, there are a few paths to an RB1 finish.

Late-Round Best Ball Targets: Zach Charbonnet (2023 Fantasy Football)

Zach Charbonnet (RB - FA) (Rookie): 104.0 Underdog Fantasy ADP and RB34

The prospect evaluation period for the NFL Draft is in full swing, but prospects will see their stock rise and fall when they test at the NFL Draft Combine and their pro days. So, Charbonnet's fantasy outlook could change significantly, depending on his testing results.

Nevertheless, he has the requisite size and production to project as an every-down back in the NFL. He's 6'1" and 220 pounds. Charbonnet's weight puts him in good company for recent rookies who were RB1s. Since 2020, four running backs were RB1s in their first campaign. They were 219, 226, 228 and 232 pounds. The rookies who were RB1s were also selected in the first, second and third rounds, with one undrafted free agent, James Robinson, immediately ranking among the top running backs.

Charbonnet is projected as one of the top running back prospects at a couple of notable outlets. PFF ranks him as the second-best running back and 52nd on their Big Board. In addition, ESPN ranks him fourth among running backs and 96th overall. The Draft Network also had a glowing scouting report for Charbonnet.

And, again, Charbonnet was highly productive, culminating in an excellent final collegiate campaign at UCLA. According to PFF, Charbonnet had their fourth-highest rushing grade, 1,358 rushing yards, 7.3 yards per carry and 14 rushing touchdowns and was 17th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (4.15 YCO/A) and tied for 31st in missed tackles forced (53) out of 233 running backs at the FBS level who carried the ball at least 75 times in 2022.

Thankfully, Charbonnet isn't just an early-down banger. Out of 80 FBS running backs targeted at least 25 times in 2022, Charbonnet had PFF's 10th-highest receiving grade, tied for ninth in receptions (37), was eighth in receiving yards (320) and was 21st in Yards per Route Run (1.30 Y/RR) in 10 games. So as long as Charbonnet doesn't bomb his testing, he should have stellar draft capital. And if he lands in a favorable situation, he could be a bell-cow out of the gate. As a result, he's worthwhile dice roll with a top-100 pick and inside the top-30 running backs.