The 2023 NFL head coaching carousel came to an end shortly after the Super Bowl, when Philadelphia Eagles coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon were hired by the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals, respectively.
In all, five head coaching vacancies were filled this winter, with three first-timers and three coming from offensive backgrounds. More interesting is that 10 offensive coordinator positions opened up this offseason, with almost all of them being filled.
Now that we have a better understanding of what most of the league’s coaching staffs will look like, let’s evaluate these coaching changes from a fantasy perspective.
New Head Coaches
Sean Payton (Denver Broncos)
How do we not start with the return of Sean Payton to the NFL? Payton arrives in Denver facing a daunting task: revive Russell Wilson‘s career and arguably the league’s most disappointing offense from a year ago.
Payton knows a thing or two about overcoming adversity, as his first year as New Orleans’ head coach occurred after Hurricane Katrina devastated the city. The Broncos probably couldn’t have asked for a better man for this job, as Payton’s track record speaks for itself.
Aside from his final season in New Orleans (which is also his only year without Drew Brees), Payton’s offense finished no worse than 12th in total offense and scoring during his 15-year tenure. While Payton’s offense is rooted in the West Coast scheme, it’s his play-calling ability and knack for exploiting matchups that makes him an elite coach.
What’s interesting is that Payton’s tendencies evolved as his New Orleans tenure progressed. From 2006 to 2016, New Orleans ranked top-5 in pass attempts in all but one season. On the flip side, New Orleans ranked inside the top 12 in rushing attempts two times during that span.
Things changed in 2017, which happened to be Alvin Kamara‘s rookie season. From 2017-2021, the Saints ranked in the top-5 in rushing attempts in three seasons, while ranking no higher than 13th in pass attempts during that same period.
This reflects Payton’s willingness to adjust his play calling to the strengths of his personnel. And that means we shouldn’t necessarily expect Payton to turn Denver’s offense into an air raid attack.
That’s probably a good thing too, as we saw how horrible Wilson was when everything was placed on his shoulders. If Denver can spruce up its offensive line and get Javonte Williams back to full strength, this could be one of the league’s most balanced attacks. And balance is just what Denver needs. The upgrade from Nathaniel Hackett to Payton can’t be underestimated.
Fantasy Impact: There’s no denying that Drew Brees was one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy during his run with Payton. We also saw that Payton’s offense can develop a WR1 when Michael Thomas broke out with the team. Payton’s hiring is good news for both Wilson and Courtland Sutton. While they might not recreate the Brees-to-Thomas connection, I’d expect these two to have better seasons in 2023. I also think Javonte Williams could be a buy-low candidate and a three-down option in this offense once he returns to full health. Javonte is no Kamara, but he showed his ability to catch passes before he got hurt last season.
Frank Reich (Carolina Panthers)
After being ousted from Indianapolis, Reich landed right back on his feet in Carolina. Reich’s Colts tenure is a tricky one to evaluate. He had a different starting quarterback in each of his five years at the helm, including Andrew Luck’s final season before his shocking retirement. From there, Reich cycled through veterans Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and finally Matt Ryan.
In Carolina, Reich will get the opportunity to develop and mold a young quarterback, similar to what he did with Wentz when they were both in Philadelphia. That could be a rookie, or it could be Sam Darnold, who showed strides toward the end of the 2022 campaign.
Reich’s offense ranked top 10 in rushing attempts in three of his five seasons, which makes sense. Not only did the Colts have a revolving door at quarterback, but they also struck gold in running back Jonathan Taylor in 2020. Reich also benefitted from having one of the league’s best offensive lines for most of his tenure. However, that unit regressed drastically in 2022.
Reich likely won’t rebuild this offense overnight, as there are obvious personnel issues. There aren’t many proven playmakers on this offense aside from receiver D.J. Moore. Reich does have an offensive line that ranked top 10 in run blocking at least.
Fantasy Impact: The Panthers could spark some intrigue from a fantasy perspective, specifically at running back. D’Onta Foreman is a free agent, and I’d expect Carolina to get involved in the bidding for someone like Josh Jacobs or Tony Pollard. A featured back has succeeded under Reich in the past, and Carolina has a good enough line to make a newcomer an RB1. What Reich failed to do was unleash Michael Pittman‘s potential, and that has me a bit concerned about D.J. Moore’s fantasy potential. Throw that in with an unsettled QB situation and lack of receiver depth, and I’ll probably avoid this passing game.
Shane Steichen (Indianapolis Colts)
The Colts replaced Reich with another offensive coordinator from the Eagles. Steichen joins Indy after four seasons serving as an offensive coordinator, two with the Chargers and his most recent two with Philly.
Steichen’s claim to fame is the role he played in developing Jalen Hurts. But he also helped create one of the league’s best rushing attacks over the last two seasons. Philadelphia ranked top 5 in rushing yards in both of Steichen’s seasons as the coordinator.
Steichen’s accolades are exactly what Indianapolis is looking for. The Colts have an elite running back in Jonathan Taylor. And Steichen could have the chance to develop his own rookie quarterback if Indy can land one in this upcoming draft. The Colts have a great shot of landing either Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or Will Levis in April.
The question is how much of a role did Steichen play in all of this? Head coach Nick Sirianni was the true mastermind, and he interestingly came from Reich’s coaching staff in Indy. The Colts are hoping they hired he next best thing.
Fantasy Impact: There’s plenty of reason for excitement in Indy. The Eagles prioritized the ground game during Steichen’s tenure as OC, and I’d expect Jonathan Taylor to once again be the focal point of the offense. What’ll be more interesting is if they can land a dual-threat QB in the draft to complement Taylor in the zone-read game that Hurts ran superbly. We also saw DeVonta Smith evolve into a strong WR2 with WR1 weekly upside in Philadelphia, and the hope is for Steichen to do the same for Michael Pittman.
DeMeco Ryans (Houston Texans)
Ryans arrives in Houston after serving as San Francisco’s defensive coordinator, and he took a San Francisco staffer with him to run his offense.
Ryans hired 35-year-old Bobby Slowik as his OC, and Slowik comes with an interesting career arc. He began his coaching career in 2017 as a defensive quality controls coach. He transitioned to the offensive side of the ball two years later and has served as San Francisco’s passing game coordinator for the last two seasons.
Slowik’s lack of experience in general is concerning. But he’s certainly learned from one of the league’s best offensive minds. The question is whether he can replicate that success in Houston.
Fantasy Impact: I’ll still be straying away from the Texans offense. Houston cost itself a shot at getting their choice of quarterback with a meaningless Week 18 win. And while Dameon Pierce will still be a strong RB2, there isn’t much else to get excited about. An offense with a rookie passer and an inexperienced OC will probably go through some growing pains in 2023. If I miss out on an unexpected explosion, so be it.
Jonathan Gannon (Arizona Cardinals)
The Cardinals became the final team to hire their new head coach. After the tumultuous Kliff Kingsbury era, Arizona opted to hire a defensive-minded coach in Gannon. The former Eagles DC brought in Cleveland Browns QB coach Dave Petzing to be his play caller.
Petzing, 35, just wrapped up his first season as Cleveland’s quarterbacks coach after spending the previous two years as the team’s tight ends coach. Before that he served for six seasons in Minnesota. Petzing’s performance in his new role is tough to judge. Cleveland began the year with Jacoby Brissett under center and finished it with a rusty Deshaun Watson, who came off a lengthy suspension.
Similar to Slowik, Petzing is practically a wild card as he takes Arizona’s play-calling duties. Under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns had one of the league’s strongest running games led by Nick Chubb. But after reaching the AFC title game two seasons ago, Cleveland’s passing game has struggled mightily. Hiring from the Stefanski coaching tree isn’t as exciting as it was just a couple of seasons ago.
Fantasy Impact: This all comes down to whether Petzing can get Murray’s development back on track. It doesn’t help that Murray is rehabbing a torn ACL suffered late in the season. But he’ll have some playmakers to work with in DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown and James Conner. Petzing will have to rework a porous offensive line that often failed to protect Murray. But Petzing likely won’t begin the year with Murray under center, making Arizona’s veteran weapons tougher to trust in drafts.
Some Quick Thoughts on Other Offensive Coordinator Hirings
Mike LaFleur (Los Angeles Rams)
LaFleur went from a disastrous situation in New York to perhaps becoming Sean McVay’s newest protege. He was far too pass happy in New York, and failed miserably in developing Zach Wilson. But Wilson will likely go down as one of the biggest busts in NFL Draft history. And LaFleur won’t have to worry about developing a QB in L.A. with Matt Stafford under center.
Dave Canales (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Bucs replaced Byron Leftwich with a far more experienced coach in Canales, who has spent the past 13 years in a variety of roles on Seattle’s staff. Canales played a significant role in Geno Smith‘s career resurgence last season. But after a two-year stint as the team’s passing game coordinator, Canales went back to being the team’s QB coach in 2022. Is Canales more of a great positional coach than a play caller? We’ll find out as Tampa picks up the pieces from Tom Brady’s retirement.
Eric Bieniemy (Washington Commanders)
This will perhaps be the most intriguing hire to monitor, as Bieniemy has left Andy Reid and the Chiefs to make a lateral move to Washington. He’ll go from coaching Patrick Mahomes to… Sam Howell? There’s no replicating what the Chiefs accomplished, but this is a great opportunity for Bieniemy to prove himself, as Washington has plenty of playmakers and a fine offensive line. If he can help develop a franchise QB in Washington, a head coaching job will be on the horizon.
Bill O’Brien (New England Patriots)
Anything is an upgrade for New England after the disastrous Matt Patricia / Joe Judge co-OC experiment. O’Brien built his coaching career under Bill Belichick in New England and was recently leading Alabama’s offense under Nick Saban. O’Brien has familiarity with Mac Jones, but doesn’t have much else to work with.
Nathaniel Hackett (New York Jets)
Only the Jets would hire the worst head coach in the NFL since Adam Gase, who coincidentally served with the Jets. This hiring is about two things: Robert Saleh’s connection to Hackett, and Hackett’s connection to Aaron Rodgers. If the Jets land Rodgers, this hiring could pay off. If they don’t… well it’s just another day in the Jets organization. Hackett will have some young talent to work with in Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore. But the Jets have to find a solution at QB and drastically improve their offensive line.
Kellen Moore (Los Angeles Chargers)
Moore didn’t really fail in Dallas. And now he goes from Dak Prescott to Justin Herbert. That’s an upgrade in my opinion, and I think Moore’s downfield tendencies could work better for Herbert, who has a far better arm than Dak. Anyone’s better than Joe Lombardi.
Tim Kelly (Tennessee Titans)
Kelly was promoted to offensive coordinator after the Titans parted ways with Todd Downing. Any offensive coordinator can hand the ball off to Derrick Henry. But Kelly’s mission will be to improve a lousy passing game.
Todd Monken (Baltimore Ravens)
Monken returns to the pros after helping the Georgia Bulldogs win back-to-back national championships. While Monken still may bring some college spread principles to Baltimore, I’d expect Monken to put more emphasis on growing Lamar Jackson as a passer. We could see a lot less of the pistol formation with Monken replacing Greg Roman.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.
