Everyone knows that QB is the most crucial position in football, but it took the fantasy game quite a while to reflect that reality. Superflex may not yet be the dominant format for casual players, but it is for the hardcore among us, especially those who play dynasty.
Dynasty Superflex Startup Draft Strategy & Advice
So let’s talk dynasty SuperFlex startup strategy!
Two QBs At The Top
I’m not going to bother distinguishing between “two-quarterback leagues” and SuperFlex leagues for this article. In any SuperFlex league, you should be prepared to start two quarterbacks every week, barring an unforeseen roster emergency. Otherwise, you’re doing it wrong and putting yourself at a severe disadvantage.
With that in mind, signal callers should be the cornerstone of your dynasty franchise, just like they are in real life. Without that foundation, you’re on shaky ground.
That’s why I want to come out of every SuperFlex startup draft with the best pair of reasonably young QBs that I can get my hands on. So this is priority No. 1, with a bullet.
There are a few reasons for this. To begin with, QBs are scarce in SuperFlex leagues, just like running backs. More so, in fact, because two running backs from the same team can be viable fantasy options, whereas that never happens with QBs.
There are only 32 starting NFL QBs, which means not everyone in a 12-team dynasty league can have three of them – the amount of QB depth necessary to feel confident you’ll always have two starters available to you. The position gets even more barren when you factor in that the worst QBs tend to be only marginally better fantasy options than players at other positions. Ideally, in a 12-team dynasty league, you want to have two top-12 QBs and a third in the QB13-24 range.
However, it’s not just scarcity that makes QB the top priority in dynasty SuperFlex; it’s longevity. Unlike bell cow running backs, who only tend to be dominant for two to three seasons, the elite fantasy QBs can give you an edge over your competition for a decade or more. So, for example, if you drafted Tom Brady in a dynasty startup at the start of the millennium, you’d only now be in the market for a replacement.
The advantages of prioritizing QB don’t end there. Quarterbacks are also much less likely than players at other positions to suffer significant injuries or see their production rapidly decrease because of a sudden decline in opportunity. As a result, QBs are the most stable and durable fantasy assets, and it isn’t particularly close.
Build Out Your Roster With WRs Who Can Help Now – And Later
So what should you do after you’ve locked up two high-end quarterbacks? Let’s take a quick step back to look at the big picture.
The principle that dictates targeting two top-tier QBs is the same one that should also guide the rest of your draft: find as many players as possible who can help you win now and later. I want to put off choosing whether to prioritize the present or the future for as long as possible in a startup draft. I want to have my cake and eat it, too.
What that generally means in practice is that once you have two QBs, target early-round WRs over early-round RBs.
WRs have a much longer shelf life than RBs, and their value depends more on talent and less on their situation. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll always prefer a WR tied to a star QB than one tied to a bad one, but good WRs can thrive more than good RBs can in so-so conditions, and receiver careers can span long enough to see their team context change dramatically. Like QBs, they’re also much less injury-prone than running backs.
Wide receivers generally don’t decline until age 33 or 34, so even wideouts in their late 20s can provide you with a decent three or four-year window to contend.
Older receivers will typically have much less trade value in the marketplace, which can become an issue if you reach a point where you want to rebuild. The goal should always be to get proven WRs who are as far away from that age-33 cliff as possible. Just realize there’s no shame or error in drafting some older WRs in the middle rounds. They may end up being exceptional values.
RB: The Final Puzzle Piece
Running backs are undoubtedly also key to contending, but don’t fall for the trap of burning your first couple of picks on bell cow backs like you would in a single-QB redraft format. Instead, look at RB as the final piece to the puzzle. Once you have your QBs and WRs in place – your foundation – look for RBs in the mid-to-late rounds who have a chance to see a sudden increase in value, be it from getting more opportunity for touches as time goes by or from an injury on the depth chart above them.
This strategy is more appealing now that most fantasy leagues award points per reception. Even if your league only offers 0.5 points per catch, it still significantly boosts the value of WRs compared to RBs. It substantially expands the number of RBs who are viable fantasy options.
Worst-case scenario, you swing and miss on the RBs you end up drafting. Even then, you can eventually trade draft capital for RBs once you know for sure that you have a contending team. There will always be retooling managers in your league who will want to cash out on aging RBs to accelerate a rebuild.
What This Means For 2023 Drafts
At the beginning of a 2023 dynasty startup, I’d be looking to lock down at least one of these 11 QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson or Dak Prescott. All but Prescott are 27 years old or younger, and they all have finished as a top-7 QB at least once already. If you’re able to land two of this “Big 11” over the first two rounds, you’ll be set at the position for years to come.
There are only two non-QBs I’d consider before all the aforementioned QBs are off the board: Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, a pair of 23-year-olds who have already proven that they are perennial top-5 fantasy wideouts.
Given the substantial age, performance, and/or health concerns surrounding Prescott, Murray, and Watson, I’d be hard-pressed to pass on Jefferson or Chase for any of them. And since run-first QBs tend to have shorter shelf lives, I’d be willing to splurge for Jefferson or Chase ahead of Fields and Jackson, too. Hurts also derives a large share of his fantasy value from his legs. Still, he took enough steps forward as a passer last season to fully belong as a locked-in top-6 dynasty startup pick alongside Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, and Lawrence.
You’ve probably noticed one QB missing from my list: Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is well-positioned to put up QB1 numbers in 2023, but I still have my doubts about whether he’ll be a starting NFL quarterback 3-5 years from now. If you’re more bullish on Tua than I am, by all means, take him in the second round. If not, and he’s the only top-12 QB left on the board, maybe explore what it would cost to turn him into one of the other guys.
If you aren’t able to land two top-tier QBs over the first three rounds, don’t force the issue by over-drafting someone that isn’t worthy of the pick. Depending on combine results, draft capital, and landing spot, rookie QBs like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, or Hendon Hooker may warrant an early pick. Still, the rest of the non-rookie QBs probably aren’t worth considering until at least the fifth or sixth round.
At that point, I would look to pair a young, high-upside QB with an established veteran. Ideally, the young QB would be one of the 2023 rookie class, Trey Lance or Daniel Jones, with Kenny Pickett as a viable fallback. For the veteran QB, I’d target one of Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Derek Carr, or Russell Wilson, with guys like Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Jimmy Garoppolo also potentially adequate placeholders.
Aside from addressing QB, I’d aim to collect as many top wide receivers as I can get in the early rounds, starting with the ones who are furthest away from hitting the age curve. CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins, and Jaylen Waddle all make for fine consolation prizes if you aren’t able to land a top QB in the second round. I’d also be open to delving into the RB market, but not until at least round four.
Once you reach the middle rounds, you’ll likely need to choose between older “win-now” players and younger guys who will take longer to pay off, if they ever do. There’s no wrong answer here, but I generally prefer to try to compete for the playoffs in year one, so I wouldn’t shy away from collecting players here who can make a significant impact for you over the next one to three seasons.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
