While the 2022 NFL regular season ended, it’s never too early to look ahead to the 2023 campaign. That’s especially true when it comes to fantasy, which never sleeps! Here are a handful of second-year running backs on the verge of breaking out in 2023.
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Breakout Running Backs to Draft: Second-Year Player Targets
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Kenneth Walker III stood as the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny was placed on IR with a season-ending injury. The rookie was the RB9 in points per game. If you remove the two games he missed due to injury (Weeks 13/14) he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the RB8 in points per game. I was out on Walker early on during the draft process, but his early injuries throughout the preseason eventually made him a draft-day steal. We all knew that Rashaad Penny was never going to be “the guy” for the long run based on his injury track record and that Walker would likely take over RB1 duties as an uber-talented second-round pick. He did just that and got absolutely FED after returning from a late-season ankle injury. Walker was either consistently playing 70 percent-plus snaps or carrying the ball 23-plus times. And at times, we even saw Walker earn a large number of targets while leading the backfield in routes run. Needless to say, he’s got “the” fantasy RB1 overall upside in 2023.
There’s no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets’ first-year running back was the RB6 in half-point scoring points per game in just 7 games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked 4th in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run. The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for 9-to-12 months. Although the latest reports suggest that Hall is progressing faster than expected and believe he could be ready for training camp.
Tyler Allgeier enjoyed an extremely successful rookie season, finishing the year as PFF’s No.1-graded rookie running back (86.7) ahead of stars like Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall. That accomplishment puts Allgeier into an elite company with RBs such as Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, and Rhamondre Stevenson – all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons after taking home the crown as PFF’s highest-graded rookie RB in their first years. Allgeier’s strong finish was the driving force behind his final standing – 6th among all RBs in rushing EPA – as the team unleashed him from Week 13 onward. He was the RB11 in half-point PPR scoring points per game averaging 17.8 carries and 96 rushing yards per game. Allgeier out-touched 32-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson 95 to 57 over the last 5 games. Entering Year 2, Allgeier should be the favorite to lead the Falcons’ backfield.
Rachaad White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Leonard Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers’ backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26). He wasn’t great as a rusher – four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade – but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa’s patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was still better than Fournette on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13). And there was no better display of White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just 5 times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). White’s superior season and proficiency as a receiver (50 receptions, 11th among all RBs) could solidify him as the RB1 moving forward. Tampa Bay has a potential out in Fournette’s contract in 2023 should they choose to save money against the salary cap. They rank 31st in available salary cap space.
The Houston Texans looked like they struck gold with Dameon Pierce early on during the season, as the rookie running back looked like the early favorite to take home offensive rookie of the year honors with a hot start. Pierce stepped in and immediately became the team’s bell cow in Week 2. From that time until Week 10, Pierce ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards (739) averaging north of 19 carries and 92 rushing yards per game. He was the fantasy RB12 overall and in points per game. Other Texans RBs combined for just 11 carries versus Pierce’s 154 over this stretch. However, the Florida product seemed to have hit a wall in the middle of the year totaling just 16 rushing yards against Washington and Miami through Weeks 11-12. However, these two defenses would turn out to be some of the tougher matchups for all RBs, so that’s likely the cause of Pierce’s fall-off in production. The tackle-breaking machine more than proved that he still had juice left in the tank with two strong outings to conclude his season versus Dallas and Cleveland. However, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury that would knock him out for the rest of the season – just 61 yards away from 1,000 rushing yards on the year. Despite the missed games, he still finished 4th in missed tackles forced and 1st in missed tackles forced per attempt (28%) among RBs with at least 100 carries. Pierce should lead the Texans backfield in 2023, but an entirely new coaching staff and Pierce’s 4th-round draft capital suggest that his undisputed workhorse role could change if the team elects to add a free-agent rusher or draft another running back.
Brian Robinson Jr. took little time getting adjusted to NFL bell-cow duties after missing the first four games of his NFL career after suffering gunshot wounds in August. From Week 6 onward, B-Rob averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34). But the points per game hardly depict Robinson’s rookie campaign because he was getting fed with volume. He ranked fourth in carries (17.8 per game) and averaged over 70 rushing yards per game as PFF’s ninth-highest-graded running back (82.1). The Commanders running back’s lack of receiving usage – just 9 catches for 60 yards on a 6% target share – and lack of TDs was the reason for his underwhelming fantasy box scores. And although his receiving usage likely won’t change too dramatically with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic back under contract in 2023, I’d fully expect him to experience positive TD regression. Robinson finishes the fantasy regular season 13th in carries, but with just two rushing TDs. His 14 carries from inside the 10-yard line were the most of any player to score fewer than three rushing TDs.
James Cook was used in a limited fashion during his rookie season, topping out at just a 56% snap share in Week 18 versus the Patriots. However, it should be noted that Cook forced a 60-40 split from Week 13 onward with veteran Devin Singletary. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team’s final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season’s totality capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). He earned PFF’s No. 1 ranking in breakaway run rate (44%). The spurts of explosiveness and receiving ability will work in Cook’s favor as he enters Year 2 with the potential to emerge as Buffalo’s Day 1 starter, with Singletary slated to hit free agency. If Cook captures Singletary’s fourth-ranked route participation role (57%), the former Georgia product’s receiving numbers will skyrocket. Cook’s 27% target rate per route run from Weeks 1-17 ranked fifth among all RBs with at least 30 targets.
Isiah Pacheco‘s outstanding season as a 2022 7th-round pick should not be understated. From Week 10 through Week 17 (when Pacheco cemented himself as the team’s starter), the former Rutgers running back was the RB21 in points per game and ranked sixth in total rushing yards. Both he and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 scoring RBs over this stretch, but Pacheco kicked his performance into high gear as the Chiefs made their postseason run. He averaged 13 touches for 65 rushing yards to McKinnon’s seven touches per game. The aggressive runner capped off his rookie campaign with an impressive Super Bowl outing (15-76-1) that helped clinch victory for Kansas City. Even as a 7th-round pick, Pacheco should be viewed as the early-down starter for KC as he heads into Year 2, with room for his role to grow should he see his pass-game usage expanded. His six-catch game versus the Bengals in the conference championship suggests a boosted receiving role is firmly in his range of outcomes.
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