Best Ball Advance Rates (2023 Fantasy Football)

Before you can take home the grand prize in a best-ball tournament you first need to get to the Big Dance. Many of the highest-paying best-ball tournaments are formatted in such a way that is not cumulative scoring for the entire season. Weeks 1-14 represent Round 1, and Weeks 15, 16 and 17 are all their own separate playoff rounds. Therefore, you can’t just build a roster with the idea of winning the playoff rounds solely at the forefront. You might not make it. Instead, you need to draft teams that have a chance of advancing into the first round of the playoffs. After all, once your team(s) are in the playoffs anything can happen. The more shots you have, the better the odds.

I’ll break down all the 2022 best-ball advance rates from a few different sources with the goal to find actionable advice drafters can use heading into the 2023 best-ball season. Because with best ball, it’s never too early to start drafting.

Be also sure to check out my best ball primers for breakdowns on all four of the major draftable positions and how to approach the early, middle and late rounds of best-ball drafts.

• Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
• Underdog Best Ball Strategy
• Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
• Best Ball Roster Construction Strategy

Best Ball Advance Rates

We can leverage advance rates from Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III tournament to get a better understanding of which players (Weeks 1-14) helped teams advance at the highest rate into the playoffs (Weeks 15-17). Using advance rates is helpful because it’s already factoring in the draft day cost of the player compared to their raw points scored. As a friendly reminder, 16.67% is the baseline advance rate.

Quarterbacks

Highest Advance Rates From Round 1

The important takeaway here includes that just two of the five QBs drafted inside the top 5 (based on ADP) finished with a top-5 advance rate.

Half of the top-8 quarterbacks (albeit QBs 5-8) with the best advance rates were drafted from the QB16-QB25 range. Jalen Hurts narrowly missed top-5 draft status as the QB6 off the board. Investing in a top-five QB based on ADP was not a bad investment. Even Lamar Jackson (QB4) had an above-average advance rate despite missing the latter half of the season.

However, in the cases of Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray – both finished with sub-13% advance rates – not getting top-end production for a season’s entirety nuked teams with their expensive costs. A big part of those QBs failing was also due to injuries, whether to them or their pass-catchers. Ergo, stacking Chargers and Cardinals was not effective in the aggregate and made it tough for teams with those rosters to make it through the regular season. But the idea behind stacking was still the correct process, as there’s a strong correlation between the top QBs and their pass-catchers in regard to positive advance rates.

Case in point, Tyreek Hill owned the highest advance rate from Round 1 (36%) among WRs. And because a lot of teams that drafted Hill also rostered Tua Tagovailoa, it’s no surprise to see the Dolphins quarterback finish with a high advance rate even with his games missed.

Running down the list of WRs/TEs with best-advance rates – Travis Kelce, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Lockett, Jaylen Waddle – it’s easy to see the correlation with the optimal QBs.

Among the ten quarterbacks with the highest advance rates, nine out of 10 finished inside the top 10 in total points scored and points per game. Tagovailoa missed games but posted strong points per game averages (18.5). Goff ranked outside the top 12 in per-game production (17.8) but made up for it with longevity and availability.

By far, the worst advance rates at quarterback were those selected from QB8 to QB12. Those players included Trey Lance, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott.

For some additional context, I also looked back at the win rate percentage from the FFPC best ball drafts from 2021. The results were similar. Among the top-5 QBs in ADP, just one (Josh Allen) returned a top-5 win rate. The other QBs being drafted were selected from QB6-QB15 among the top seven.

As I put so eloquently in the quarterback best ball primer, you NEED to acquire top-10 fantasy quarterback production in some form on your roster. And last year’s results suggest this can be done in a multitude of ways. You can still happily draft a top-five quarterback by ADP but don’t necessarily be so gun-hoe on taking the first QB off the board. Again, Mahomes and Allen finished first and second, respectively, in points scored, and both finished inside the top-5 in advance rate (2nd and 5th, respectively). However, several of the other top advancing QBs were being drafted later but still early relative to the double-digit rounds.

I’d highly recommend a late-round “elite” quarterback approach for your first quarterback target. You want to be drafting the quarterbacks at the back end of the elite tier of fantasy QBs to capitalize on the value while also capturing a high ceiling.

And for your second quarterback – you should draft at least two good quarterbacks in best ball – follow a pseudo-late-round QB approach. It’s probably better described as a middle-round approach considering the best hits from this past season came from the QB15-21 range (Picks 115-165). But here you are looking for a steady body that can stay healthy/active for a full 18-game season. Looking for pocket passers with high projected passing volume (perfect for stacking) or guys with mobility are the ideal targets.

Among the QBs being drafted outside the top 100 picks (QB15-21), the ones with the highest advance rates played for teams that attempted at least 550 passes. And the ones that didn’t were the Daniel Jones/Justin Fields rushing fantasy quarterbacks. Among the top-10 quarterbacks last season in total points scored, eight rushed for at least 250 yards.

Call it the 55-25 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 550-plus times and/or rush for 250 yards? Those are your top targets.

Running Backs

Highest Advance Rates From Round 1

The highest RB advance rates came from Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, Jamaal Williams, and Nick Chubb. All running backs were discounted in some capacity, with none being selected inside the top-13 running backs. Chubb was drafted the highest at RB14.

Among the top-10 running backs in advance rate, only one was drafted as such (Christian McCaffrey). Sixteen of the top 20 running backs with the highest advance rates were drafted at RB24 and beyond (outside the top 70 overall picks, which is typically out of or at the tail-end of the dreaded RB dead zone).

You’ll also notice the timing variance of the RBs’ production. The slow starters – Tony Pollard, D’Onta Foreman, Jerick McKinnon, Samaje Perine, and Kenneth Walker – still ended up being useful with strong finishes. Just another reason to fade early-season opportunities in favor of late-season production when the weeks and points become that much more critical. Players get discounted substantially based on Week 1 projections, so savvy drafters should take full advantage.

One of the other major takeaways is that many of the RBs that hit played in an ambiguous backfield. That aligns with my research before the start of the 2022 season titled, “How to Identify Sleeper & Late-Round Running Backs to Target (2022 Fantasy Football).” You’ll also notice that the other major hitters were running backs that boasted pass-catching chops.

When compared to their WR counterparts, running backs also slightly fell flat. But not at the top. Among the top-5 combined advance rates for RBs and WRs, RBs owned four of the five highest. But among the top 25 hit rates, only eight were running backs. Six running backs finished inside the top 15. What this data suggests is that WRs are a better bet in the aggregate to return a positive advance rate, but hitting on the right running back late can be the true difference-maker.

The worst advance rates for RBs were drafted at slots RB12, RB1, RB6, RB23, RB5, RB8, and RB19. Stark difference from the hits going outside the top-2o running backs.

When analyzing points per game versus advance rates – only four of the top-ten scorers in points per game finished with top-ten advance rates. Five of the ten (and seven of the top 12) finished inside the top 10 in total points scored. The ADPs of these running backs were extremely front-loaded. Of the top-nine scoring RBs, six owned ADPs inside the top-10, with the others ranging from RB14-RB28.

Ergo, the top dogs at running back still tend to be drafted very early on (inside the top 10), and there’s credence to taking a stud early to lock in the production. Then you punt the position – the “hero” RB approach – with WR now at the forefront. And it’s not until your roster has been adequately filled with WRs, QBs, and/or an elite tight end that you dip your toes back into the RB pool. The goal should be to end drafts with five-to-six running backs, with most formats only requiring two starting RB slots. That’s why I like the hero RB approach so much. You’ve got one spot dialed in, and the other spot can be filled by the rotating carousel of remaining RBs on your roster.

For some additional context, I also looked back at the win rate percentages from the FFPC best ball drafts in 2021. Unlike the Underdog Drafts, four of the top-five advance rates belonged to WRs. Although it was more even in the top 12 overall, with six of each position being represented. But WR dominated yet again within the top 23, with a total of 16 WRs being part of that group.

Among the top 14 per ADP, just four RBs finished with win rates inside the top 10. It’s definitely an argument favoring at least one running back somewhere near the top because their ADP/win rates are slightly higher/less volatile than that of WRs. Among the top 24 per ADP, just two WRs finished with win rates inside the top 10. Three inside the top 20.

Addressing RB early aligns with my recommendations from Early Round Best Ball Strategies.

Wide Receivers

Highest Advance Rates From Round 1

The highest WR advance rates came from Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Lockett, Jaylen Waddle, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Christian Kirk, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Zay Jones, and Garrett Wilson.

The first takeaway is the amount of No. 2 WRs on their teams (based on ADP) drafted that delivered strong ROIs. This suggests that some great value picks can be made drafting No. 2s that are discounted solely because they are viewed as No.2s by the market. It’s not because they aren’t talented or are in bad situations. In fact, it’s the opposite in most cases, which is why they are the perfect targets in drafts. And their prices will almost always be kept in check to some extent due to the presence of the No. 1 wide receiver on their own team. Call it the “WR1 firewall.”

Among the top-10 WRs drafted, half finished with top-10 advance rates. Three were drafted inside the top 5, with the other two coming at WR9 and WR10 ADPs. The other five WRs were drafted outside the top-17 including three outside the top-40 wide receivers. There was also a severe plateau in advance rate after the top-11 WRs in ADP.

When analyzing points per game in regard to advance rates – six of the top-ten scorers in points per game finished with top-ten advance rates. The ones that didn’t either suffered an injury or had their quarterback miss time. Seven of the ten finished inside the top 10 in total points scored. Ergo, the name of the game with WR is still about scooping up value in the middle-to-later portions of drafts, with WRs counting for the biggest part of your best-ball roster.

But you can still lock in a bonafide stud early on. Eight of the top ten drafted WRs based on ADP finished inside the top eight in points per game. And the two misses – Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel – still finished inside the top 20. But to really get your edge at wide receiver, you need to hit on these discounted No. 2 WRs in the middle-to-late rounds as the actual difference-makers/level-jumpers. The RB Dead Zone and the WR Shred Zone are one and the same from Rounds 3-6.

Be aggressive drafting WRs in this range, and be sure to load up on the position with so many roster spots to fill. Eight to nine receivers should suffice. And stack WRs not just with their QBs, but with their WR/TE teammates as well. An underrated aspect of this is that if one of them goes down or misses time, the other likely benefits from a higher target share – especially in the case of No. 2s.

For some additional context, I also looked back at the win rate percentage from the FFPC best ball drafts from 2021. Among the top 24 per ADP, just two WRs finished with win rates inside the top 10. Three inside the top 20. Just goes to show how volatile the WR position can be in fantasy football and how you want to take as many shots as possible targeting the position in the middle-to-late rounds.

Tight Ends

Highest Advance Rates From Round 1

The highest TE advance rates came from Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Taysom Hill, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Mike Gesicki, David Njoku, Tyler Conklin, Pat Freiermuth, and Noah Fant.

The big takeaway is a lesson I preached from last season….stay out of the middle at tight end. Draft an elite guy, or just wait and wait. Among the top-4 in advance rate, zero were drafted between TE8 and TE21. There were some “hits” at TE8, TE11, TE12, TE15, and TE18 ADPs, but the advance rates were marginally better than tight ends going later in drafts.

When analyzing points per game versus advance rates – seven of the top-12 scorers in points per game finished with top-12 advance rates. Six of the ten finished inside the top 10 in total points scored.

The top-five scorers in tight end points per game returned a 60% top-5 advance rate. Ergo, if you draft a tight end that finishes inside the top five in total points scored, it’s an advantage in the best-ball format. And I’d argue that we would have seen a perfect five-for-five ranking here had the Lamar Jackson injury not derailed Mark Andrew’s end to the season or George Kittle missed time to start the season. Amid the hurdles those two had to overcome, they still posted very close-to-average advance rates.

And for the most part, these tight ends come as no surprise at the top of the position’s landscape. The top six tight ends in points per game were all selected within the top ten based on ADP (TE1, TE5, TE7, TE2, TE8, TE10).

Note that when you spend that high-end draft capital on that top-six tight end, do not overly invest elsewhere in the position. You have more work to do addressing the other holes on your roster created by taking a tight end early. When you follow an elite tight end build, you only need to draft two TEs (unless stacking opportunities present themselves). But when you are taking all late-round guys, go for a three-man approach.

For some additional context, I also looked back at the win rate percentages from the FFPC best ball drafts in 2021.

The highest win rates came at the top from guys like Mark Andrews (TE4) and Travis Kelce (TE1). And then there was a large gap in ADP between them in the next closest drafted tight end with a top-10 win rate (Rob Gronkowski, TE17).

Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio