The first week of the new XFL season is in the books. The league didn’t have a preseason. So, last week answered many questions. Still, it’s unwise to treat a single week of data as gospel. Things will change weekly, and chasing points isn’t often the way to the top of tournaments. The following picks weigh last week’s performances with the potential for changes in Week 2, creating a balance that factors in last week without overrating it.
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Quarterbacks
Seattle's offense was pass-happy in Week 1, staying true to offensive coordinator June Jones's previous tendencies. The Sea Dragons attempted 56 passes and only 14 rushes by non-quarterbacks. It was a mixed bag for Ben DiNucci. He passed for 282 yards, one touchdown and rushed for three yards. However, he also threw two game-changing interceptions. Further, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he was tied for the most big-time throws (three) and turnover-worthy plays (three) last week. The passing volume is dreamy for DFS.
However, will DiNucci be the one to lead the Sea Dragons this week? Seattle narrowly failed to win their opener after DiNucci had a head-scratching fumble on the goal line, effectively ending their comeback. During an in-game interview, head coach Jim Haslett said everyone would play for the Sea Dragons, and he was true to his word. But, of course, that meant backup quarterback Steven Montez played a series, completing one of two passes for six yards. The Sea Dragons have a quick turnaround, kicking off Week 2 on Thursday night. Presumably, DiNucci will start. However, it's not unusual for teams to change starting quarterbacks in spring leagues at the drop of a hat. DiNucci's screw-ups might have been grounds for awarding Montez a start, making Montez an intriguing contrarian pick in tournaments.
Brandon Silvers is a relatively safe and high-ceiling pick. The Roughnecks won a blowout last week. Nevertheless, they still attempted 42 passes and had only 14 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Backup quarterback Cole McDonald attempted four rushes for 14 yards and a touchdown. However, he didn't attempt any passes, leaving all the passing work for Silvers. The spring football veteran had the second-most passing yards (269) and tied for the second-most passing touchdowns (two) last week. Sure, Silvers also had two interceptions, but the good outweighed the bad. P.J. Walker previously thrived in offensive coordinator AJ Smith's offense in Houston in 2020, and Silvers might be the next quarterback to generate eye-popping numbers in the offense.
Brett Hundley joins Montez as a speculative tournament pick. The veteran NFL backup quarterback joined the Vipers late in the offseason, putting him behind the eight-ball to prepare for Week 1. After another week of assimilating the playbook, the XFL's highest-paid player might overtake Luis Perez on the depth chart. Perez had positive moments last week but threw two critical interceptions in a loss. Head coach Rod Woodson didn't mince words when discussing the interceptions in a snippet Cody Main from Establish The Run shared on Twitter.
Hundley might not be ready to start yet, creating a risk for using him. However, taking an educated leap of faith before things play out on the field can result in winning a tournament or finishing near the top of the heap. The risk isn't worth the reward in cash games but worth firing some bullets in GPPs.
Running Backs
Kalen Ballage (23 rushes) and De'Veon Smith (15 rushes) were first and second in rush attempts last week, and the former led the league in rushing yards (81). The Brahmas and Renegades had balanced offenses last week. The former had 36 passes and 35 rushes by non-quarterbacks, and the latter had 25 and 26. The rushing volume is the draw for Ballage and Smith this week.
However, both were involved in the passing attack, too. Per PFF, Smith ran the second-most routes (18) among running backs, hauling in two receptions for 15 yards on three targets. Ballage ran 12 routes versus 17 for teammate Jacques Patrick. However, Ballage had three receptions for 13 yards on three targets, and Patrick had only one reception for nine yards on one target.
Brian Hill didn't have the same volume as Ballage and Smith but was significantly more efficient. The former Falcon had 55 rushing yards on six attempts and 26 receiving yards on three receptions. Hill ripped off most of his rushing yardage on a 40-yard attempt. He was also elusive, though. According to PFF, he forced four missed tackles on his rushes and two on his receptions. Hill's ability to evade tacklers is promising for him to make the most of his chances.
Houston's pass-first offense wasn't a problem for Max Borghi last week. He rumbled for 42 yards and a touchdown on the ground and showed his pass-catching chops. Borghi ran only nine routes but commanded four targets, resulting in four receptions for 32 yards. Of course, Borghi isn't a bulletproof option since the Roughnecks are a pass-heavy team. Still, Borghi's receiving ability gives him a high ceiling, even with a modest rushing workload.
Nick Holley had a bagel in the scoring column last week. Yet, gamers shouldn't completely ignore him. Labeled a running back, Holley is essentially a slot receiver. He had one target but ran 33 routes and aligned in the slot for 34 passing snaps. Holley was also useful in the 2020 version of the XFL, reeling in 21 receptions for 267 yards and two touchdowns in five games. As a result, gamers should consider him in tournaments.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Six of the nine featured wideouts and tight ends on the table are Sea Dragons or Roughnecks. They're pass-heavy offenses that use many receivers, and Josh Gordon, Deontay Burnett, Jachour Pearson, Jontre Kirklin, Blake Jackson and Travell Harris were among Seattle's and Houston's most involved wideouts.
Pearson led the XFL in targets (13), receptions (12) and receiving yards (95) in the opening week. Meanwhile, Jackson ran the most routes (57). Gordon had six receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown on nine targets and 42 routes. Thus, they're all exciting picks in Thursday night's contest.
Burnett erupted for eight receptions, 87 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets for the Roughnecks last week. Kirklin and Harris were sharp, too. The former had five receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown on eight targets, and the latter reeled in six receptions for 53 yards on 11 targets. Moreover, Kirklin had vertical usage. Per PFF, he had a 15.5-yard aDOT. As a result, Kirklin's combination of targets and field-stretching usage makes him a blow-up candidate.
Martavis Bryant, Sal Cannella and Cody Latimer are the other players on the table. Bryant's teammate Jeff Badet stole the show last week. The speedy former Sooner had six receptions for 81 yards and two touchdowns. Sadly, his track record in spring football wasn't impressive before last week's eruption. So, gamers should tread carefully and not blindly point chase last week's effort.
Bryant had an underwhelming four receptions for 28 scoreless yards. However, Bryant's eight targets and 38 routes were encouraging. The field-stretching wideout could also potentially benefit from switching to the more mobile Hundley at quarterback. Hundley's ability to extend plays could mesh well with Bryant's ability to stress defenses deep.
Cannella efficiently hauled in seven receptions for 70 yards on eight targets. Additionally, he was targeted on an eye-catching 28.6% of his routes and, according to Justin Freeman, had a week-high Target Market Share.
Latimer's week was productive but strange. He ran only 14 routes but was force-fed six targets for five receptions, 68 yards and one touchdown on his limited route participation. The low number of routes is a concern. Further, it wasn't the only oddity in Week 1. Latimer's touchdown was also a questionable call, as it could have easily been ruled as an interception.
Latimer's data wasn't perfect last week. Still, he's grossly underpriced and the most attractive punt on the slate.
Defense and Special Teams
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Roughnecks are 4.0-point favorites, and the Vipers are 3.0-point favorites. Both teams are also at home this week. Those factors are already grounds for using them in DFS. However, it gets better. PFF graded the Roughnecks first in pressuring the quarterback and the Vipers second. The Roughnecks had seven sacks and forced four turnovers. The Vipers didn't have as fantasy-friendly of a showing. Nevertheless, they had three sacks and forced one turnover. Finally, Las Vegas's salary makes them the most affordable option gamers should consider.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
