The last several NFL Drafts have yielded a fair share of wide receivers who have made an immediate impact as a rookie. It began with the 2020 class that yielded stars like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman and Brandon Aiyuk. The 2021 class was even more loaded with studs like Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. And the 2022 class featured the eventual Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson, as well as budding stars like Chris Olave, Drake London, Christian Watson, Jahan Dotson and George Pickens.
Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles
2023 NFL Draft Prospects: Overvalued Wide Receivers
This run of breakout rookie receivers certainly hasn’t been the traditional norm. But as collegiate offenses transition more toward high-flying aerial attacks, more rookie pass catchers are coming into the pros with a smaller learning curve.
That being said, not all wide receiver classes will be as good as the last three. And the 2023 receiver class could represent a drop off in not only top-end talent but depth. For example, only three wideouts were ranked inside our Matthew Jones‘ top 32 in his most recent Big Board, and all of them sat outside of the top 20 prospects.
In a draft that’s thin on top-end talent, there are sure to be some overvalued players from a fantasy perspective. Here are some receivers I’m not as high on in this 2023 class.
Jordan Addison (USC)
It’s hard to doubt Jordan Addison after looking at his production. In 2021, Addison was the nation’s best receiver, with 100 balls for nearly 1,600 yards and 17 touchdowns. Then, he transferred to USC and caught 59 passes for 875 yards and eight touchdowns in only 11 games.
Addison was utilized both on the outside and in the slot in college, but I worry his 6-foot, 175-pound frame will force him more inside at the next level. His speed gave him an edge against less athletic college DBs, but he could struggle mightily against NFL corners that can stick with him in coverage. In addition, I worry about Addison’s ability to separate and win contested battles for the ball at the next level.
Our Matthew Freedman sent Addison to the Baltimore Ravens in his latest mock draft, a landing spot that offers plenty of intrigue. The Ravens have Rashod Bateman on the outside and Mark Andrews manning the middle. That would likely allow Addison to be a flexible option within the offense. But even with Lamar Jackson and complementary parts around him, I’m worried Addison’s fantasy ceiling is more as a steady WR2.
How far will Smith-Njigba’s incredible Rose Bowl performance carry his draft stock? Because that’s about all we have to evaluate entering April’s draft.
Smith-Njigba barely played in 2022 after early injuries prompted him to focus on preparing for the draft. He was electric at the end of the 2021 season, catching 60 balls for 958 yards and six touchdowns. But he caught just five passes in 2022.
The bigger problem for Smith-Njigba is that he profiles more as a slot receiver at the next level. Slot receiver has certainly evolved into a pivotal offensive role, but it doesn’t necessarily warrant a first-round pick. And that’s likely where Smith-Njigba will end up.
I’m more interested if Smith-Njigba winds up on a wide receiver-needy team like the Giants (as Freedman predicts in his Mock Draft 3.0). But for now, I’m unsure if Smith-Njigba has the goods to develop into a fantasy WR1.
I get the feeling an NFL team will bite on Boutte’s talent. But, like his tenure at LSU, I’m not sure he’ll ever meet those expectations.
Boutte was a highly-touted high school prospect, ranked as the No. 2 WR in the country and the No. 24 prospect in the class of 2020. But Boutte never really developed into the next Odell Beckham or Justin Jefferson at LSU. He caught just 48 balls for 538 yards and two touchdowns in LSU’s revitalized offense last season.
Boutte has the size-speed combo you’re looking for in draft prospects but cancels that out with inconsistent hands and shoddy ball skills. He also didn’t run a nuanced route tree with the Tigers. Oh, and Boutte has had two surgeries on his right ankle.
Boutte’s raw talent could make him the fourth receiver off the board after the big three of Addison, Smith-Njigba and TCU’s Quentin Johnston. But I’m not sure he should be. His talent is easy to fall in love with, but I’m probably avoiding him in fantasy drafts.
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