There are two games on Saturday in the final week of the NFL’s regular season. Both contests have playoff implications. The Chiefs are playing for the top seed in the AFC. Then, the Jaguars and Titans are fighting for the AFC South crown and a playoff berth. The favored clubs are well-represented below, but a few bargain options are viable from the underdogs.
Week 18 Matchups
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: KC -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 52.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs are heavily favored. In the first meeting this year, they won a shootout against the Raiders, and Patrick Mahomes lit up his AFC West foe, passing for 292 yards and four touchdowns while chipping in 28 rushing yards. Mahomes is marching toward another MVP, leading the NFL in passing yards per game (315.5) and touchdown passes (40). He's also added four rushing touchdowns and 20.6 rushing yards per game.
The matchup is desirable for him this week as well. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are 27th in pass defense DVOA. Thus, Mahomes is projected as the highest-scoring player on the Saturday main slate.
Travis Kelce is the optimal stacking partner with Mahomes and an outstanding one-off pick. The stud tight end had only 25 receiving yards in the first matchup against the Raiders. However, Kelce had seven receptions and four touchdowns. So, it was a blowup performance.
The veteran tight end is defying Father Time this year and dominating. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he's ninth in receptions per game (6.5), 10th in receiving yards per game (81.3) and second in touchdown receptions (12) this season. Kelce is a matchup-proof monster, easily the TE1 and projects as one of the highest scorers on Saturday's two-game main slate.
Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are intriguing ancillary options in Kansas City's high-powered passing attack. The Chiefs have rotated wide receivers, and Mecole Hardman might be back this week to further muddy the playing time. Yet, Toney has flashed his potential and made the most of his limited role for the Chiefs. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he had four targets, four receptions and 71 receiving yards on just 15 routes last week. The slick second-year wideout previously flashed his ability in Week 10, reeling in four receptions on five targets and 17 routes for 57 yards and a touchdown while gashing the Jaguars for 33 rushing yards on two attempts, too. The floor is low. Yet, Toney's big-play ability and attachment to Mahomes are grounds for investing in him as a value pick on this small slate.
MVS has primarily been the NFL's premier cardio king. The speedy veteran runs empty routes at an alarming rate. MVS was targeted on only 13.2% of his routes this season. Nevertheless, he was second on the Chiefs in routes (202) since Week 11, trailing only Kelce's 230. Finally, MVS had his second-most receiving yards (90) and most targets (eight) and receptions (six) in a game this year against the Raiders in Week 5. So, he's a nifty value pick.
Jerick McKinnon took the reins for Kansas City's backfield in the 2021 postseason and has been their most trusted running back lately. McKinnon has scored a touchdown in his previous five games, splashing paydirt eight times during his streak. Since Week 13, McKinnon had 31 rushes, 136 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 28 targets, 25 receptions, 274 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns. Additionally, he ran 106 routes versus only 57 for Isiah Pacheco.
McKinnon's receiving prowess makes him an excellent stacking option with Mahomes. Further, he has a superb matchup for his receiving ability. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), running backs have averaged 5.9 receptions and 50.3 receiving yards per game against the Raiders since Week 11. So, the veteran running back is a game-script-proof option with a desirable ceiling.
Raiders Analysis: Jarrett Stidham exceeded his expectations last week and passed for 365 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against San Francisco's elite defense. He has a softer matchup this week, awarding an opportunity for DFS success to his wideouts. Obviously, Davante Adams is the top dog in their passing attack. However, some difficult decisions must be made on this small slate and pivoting to value options, Mack Hollins and Hunter Renfrow are appealing to open up cap space for the Chiefs and some upcoming options.
Renfrow returned from the Injured Reserve in Week 16, and he's third on the Raiders in routes (48) since coming back, trailing Adams (70) and Hollins (65). The slot wideout had only four targets, three receptions and 19 scoreless starts paired with Stidham last week. Hollins was slightly more productive, turning four targets into three receptions for 40 scoreless yards. Hollins is the better pick between the duo for gamers with the cap space, but Renfrow is also a decent choice.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: JAC -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Titans Analysis: The Titans have lost six straight games and scored 16 points or fewer in five of those games. They rested Derrick Henry in Week 17 to ready him for this game, and they're starting Joshua Dobbs after taking a look at him last week. Starting Dobbs represents an upgrade for the offense, telling gamers all they need to know. The Titans' offense is in trouble. Henry will garner attention since he's a workhorse and steamrolled the Jaguars for 121 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 34 yards in Week 14. However, Henry's receiving production is inconsistent, and a negative game script would pose a problem for his rushing output. Thus, it's reasonable to fade him.
Jaguars Analysis: Trevor Lawrence has a mouthwatering matchup this week. The Titans are 31st in pass defense DVOA since Week 11, and they were tied for the fourth-most DraftKings and allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks in that period. Lawrence beat them like a drum to the tune of 368 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, seven rushing yards and one rushing touchdown in Week 14. The sophomore quarterback should pick them apart in the rematch and offers a ton of bang for your buck.
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones had their moments this year, but the former was slightly more productive overall. Kirk leads the Jags in targets (125), receiving yards per game (63.1) and touchdown receptions (seven), and he's second in receptions per game (4.9). The matchup is also slightly more favorable for Kirk than Jones. Kirk primarily aligns in the slot, and the Titans have allowed 25.8 DK and 18.8 FD points per game to slot wide receivers versus 18.2 and 14.6 to perimeter wide receivers since Week 11. Thus, it's enticing to spend the extra salary for Kirk instead of Jones, despite the latter outperforming the former in the first game against the Titans.
Evan Engram is also a sweet pick worthy of usage in the flex paired with Kelce at tight end. Engram got off to a slow start in his first campaign with the Jaguars, but he's been a force to be reckoned with lately, besting 100 yards twice in his last four games. He destroyed the Titans in Week 14, hauling in 11 receptions for 162 yards and two touchdowns on 15 targets. Engram followed that performance up with eight receptions and 62 receiving yards in Week 15 before ripping the Jets for 113 receiving yards on seven receptions in Week 16.
Engram will be a popular choice. Yet, he deserves to be a chalky pick in a great matchup. Tight ends have averaged the third-most DK points and the second-most FD points per game against the Titans since Week 11. As a result, Engram is one of the best values on the slate.
Travis Etienne will find the sledding tough on the ground. Still, the Jaguars are favored, and he's a home-run threat. The 2021 first-round pick showed off his wheels on a 61-yard touchdown run last week.
TRAVIS EATIN ? @swaggy_t1
?: #JAXvsHOU on CBS
?: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/MP9EUziAkY pic.twitter.com/FKEmdtJLaN— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2023
Etienne has averaged 69.3 rushing yards, 2.1 receptions and 18.7 receiving yards per game and scored five touchdowns. So, he's a well-rounded back and Jacksonville's featured runner. The matchup isn't ideal, but leaning into Etienne's talent is defensible on this slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
