Week 17 Sunday Night Football Showdown DFS Primer (Steelers at Ravens)

The Steelers and Ravens will meet for the second time in less than a month, and the game projects to be a low-scoring contest. There’s also a lack of superstars, making it reasonably easy to build rosters that fit under the salary cap. Nevertheless, the player pool creates different roster considerations than one featuring many high-salaried studs.

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: BAL -2.0 Points

Over/Under: 35.5 Points

Steelers Analysis: Unfortunately, Kenny Pickett was concussed and threw only one pass in the first meeting against the Ravens in Week 14. The rookie returned to action last week, passing for 244 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on Saturday night in cold and wet conditions.

Pickett hasn't thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game as a pro, but he's passed for one in three of his last four healthy contests and adds value with his legs, reaching double-digit rushing yards in all but one game in which he's played. Further, Pickett has an easier path to success than Najee Harris. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are first in rush defense DVOA and 13th in pass defense DVOA since Week 10. Therefore, per numberFire, teams have attempted 90 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 129 passes in neutral game scripts in that time frame. The Steelers also slightly leaned into the pass in the first meeting, attempting 23 passes and 16 rushes by non-quarterbacks when in a neutral game script. Pickett isn't an exciting option, but he's a stellar one.

Pickett's two favorite options in the passing attack on his 168 passes since Week 10 were Diontae Johnson (21.4% Target Share) and Pat Freiermuth (21.4% Target Share). Johnson had more Air Yards (349 versus 304) than Freiermuth, but the second-year tight end had more receptions (25 compared to 23) and receiving yards (296 versus 257). However, the matchup is better for Johnson than Freiermuth, making Johnson a bit more attractive for this game.

George Pickens had a 13.7% Target Share on Pickett's passes since Week 10. Still, he's arguably as compelling a selection as Johnson or Freiermuth. Pickens had 304 Air Yards and a penchant for making big plays downfield, hauling in 16 receptions for 231 receiving yards and two touchdowns during that stretch. In addition, Baltimore's permitted nine completions on 16 attempts (56.3%) that traveled at least 20 Air Yards for 284 yards in their previous six games, and Pickens hauled in both of his deep targets for 67 yards in the last meeting against the Ravens.

Ravens Analysis: J.K. Dobbins hasn't been a bell-cow running back. Instead, he had snap shares of 43%, 38% and 42% since rejoining the Ravens from arthroscopic knee surgery in Week 14. Fortunately, Dobbins doesn't have any restrictions on his snap count. So, he could see more opportunities as he gets stronger while tuning up for the playoffs.

Regardless, Dobbins can make the most of a committee role. The third-year pro torched the Steelers for 120 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts in Week 14, busted off 125 yards on 13 attempts in Week 15 and had 59 yards on 12 attempts last week. The efficiency for Dobbins has been breathtaking.

Baltimore's offense can support Gus Edwards, too. They've attempted 84 passes and 81 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 13 (the game when Lamar Jackson was injured). They also leaned heavily into the run against the Steelers in the first game, attempting just 17 passes and 30 rushes by non-quarterbacks when in a neutral game script. In his past three games, Edwards has had 66 (against Pittsburgh), 55 and 99 rushing yards on 13, seven, and 11 attempts. Pittsburgh's run defense is second in rush defense DVOA since Week 10, but they had no answers for Dobbins and Edwards in the first game.

Tyler Huntley has attempted 91 passes since Week 13, and Mark Andrews has been his go-to player. Andrews had a 25.3% Target Share. Sadly, he had only 11 receptions for 139 receiving yards on 190 Air Yards. Andrews' numbers have left much to be desired, but this is a get-right matchup. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), tight ends have averaged 4.7 receptions per game, 52.4 receiving yards per game and scored two receiving touchdowns against Pittsburgh since Week 10.

The other intriguing options in Baltimore's passing attack are cap-friendly picks. Rookie tight end Isaiah Likely has the same fantasy-friendly matchup as Andrews. He wasn't targeted against the Steelers last time, and he's had fewer than five receiving yards in three of his last five games. So, the risk is apparent for Likely. However, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Likely has run the fourth-most routes (55) for the Ravens in their last four games. Being on the field and running routes are enough reasons to roll the dice on Likely as a value choice on this showdown slate.

Sammy Watkins is also a cap-friendly choice. The veteran wide receiver was on the Packers for most of this year before they cut him loose. He made his 2022 debut for the Ravens last week and most likely had a minor learning curve for Baltimore's playbook since he was on the team last year. Watkins caught his only target for 40 yards against the Falcons. Moreover, Watkins' eight routes tied for the most by a wideout on the Ravens. Only Andrews (18) and Josh Oliver (10) ran more routes.

Final Thoughts: The Ravens are favored, but the spread is narrow. A balanced lineup is the most inviting lineup construction. However, firing a bullet or two on an unbalanced lineup that includes Pickett and his pass-catchers and only one or two players from the Ravens is intriguing. Gamers can use Pickett or Dobbins in the captain/MVP spot on the Pickett-and-pass-catchers lineup. Finally, Pickett, Johnson, Pickens and Dobbins are my favorite captain/MVP picks.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.