The NFL whets the appetite of fans, bettors and DFS gamers on Saturday with a two-game slate to jumpstart Super Wild Card Weekend. The Seahawks at the 49ers and the Chargers at the Jaguars are battling for a chance to advance, and this piece will sift through the players to provide a manageable pool of DFS options.
NFL DFS Saturday Wild Card Matchups
Game: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Seahawks Analysis: The Seahawks scored seven points in Week 2 and 13 points in Week 15 against the 49ers. They haven't had any answers for San Francisco's top-shelf defense. Seattle also struggled offensively down the stretch, scoring 10, 23 and 19 points in their final three regular season games. So, it's not unreasonable to wholly fade them, even on this tiny two-game slate.
Yet, Tyler Lockett and Cade Johnson are intriguing. This year, Lockett was the lone bright spot for the Seahawks against the 49ers. He had nine receptions for 107 receiving yards on 11 targets in the first meeting and seven for 68 on nine targets in the rematch.
The matchup is stellar for Lockett and Johnson, too. Slot wide receivers have been more successful against the 49ers than perimeter wideouts. According to The 33rd Team and stats from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), the 49ers have allowed the 10th-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 12. Meanwhile, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Johnson led the Seahawks in passing snaps aligned in the slot (14), and Lockett was second (12) in Week 18. Johnson also ran the third-most routes (20) among Seattle's wide receivers last week. The Seahawks will likely get steamrolled, leaving them in a negative game script in which they'll have to air it out often. As a result, Lockett and Johnson should be busy.
49ers Analysis: San Francisco's offense hasn't skipped a beat under the leadership of rookie Brock Purdy. Instead, they're white-hot. Since Mr. Irrelevant took the reins in Week 13, the 49ers have scored 33, 35, 21, 37, 37 and 38 points. Even though Purdy has played well, they're a run-first team at its core.
According to numberFire, they've attempted 136 passes and 145 rushes by non-quarterbacks when tied or leading since Week 13. Predictably, Christian McCaffrey was superb during that stretch. In his previous six games, he's had 101 rush attempts, 505 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 35 targets, 27 receptions, 262 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. He reached paydirt in each of those games, bested 100 rushing yards three times and had 148, 58 and 79 scrimmage yards in the outlier contests.
Elijah Mitchell made his return from the Injured Reserve last week and didn't miss a beat. He had 55 yards and two touchdowns on five rushes. The explosive second-year back averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 55.8 rushing yards per game this season. Further, Mitchell ran for just 41 yards in his only game played this year without CMC. In other words, Mitchell's numbers were accumulated while sharing the backfield with McCaffrey.
San Francisco's running backs have a mouthwatering matchup against the Seahawks. First, according to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks are 29th in rush defense DVOA since Week 12. Second, per The 33rd Team, Seattle's yielded the fourth-most DK and FD points per game to running backs since Week 12. Likely armed with a good game script, CMC and Mitchell can both aid DFS teams, and the former is projected as the RB1 on Saturday's main slate.
George Kittle is the most exciting option in San Francisco's passing attack. The stud tight end is addicted to splashing paydirt lately, scoring seven touchdowns during his four-game touchdown streak to conclude the regular season. Kittle also had at least four receptions in his previous five games and exploded for 93 and 120 receiving yards in Week 15 and Week 16.
The matchup is desirable as well. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th-most DK and tied for the ninth-most FD points per game allowed to tight ends since Week 12. Kittle is projected as the TE1 on this slate and could significantly outscore the other options on this small slate.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: LAC -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers have a pass-heavy offense. Since Week 12, they've attempted 249 passes and 109 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. In addition, the matchup is better for Los Angeles's passing attack than their ground game. The Jaguars are 12th in rush defense DVOA and 24th in pass defense DVOA since Week 12.
Thankfully, Justin Herbert can make the most of his good matchup. In his last seven games, he averaged 285 passing yards per game, completed 70.7% of his passes, tossed nine touchdowns and threw only three interceptions. Obviously, his touchdown output was a little light. Regardless, Herbert has been sharp as a tack.
Keenan Allen has been the apple of Herbert's eye, sporting a 25.8% Target Share on Herbert's passes in the previous seven games. Per numberFire, Allen's parlayed his target-hog role into 53 receptions, 574 receiving yards, 600 Air Yards and three touchdowns. He also played 64.2% of his passing snaps in the slot, which is preferable to aligning wide against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has held perimeter wideouts to the third-fewest DK and FD points per game since Week 12. However, they've tied for the 12th-most DK and FD points per game allowed to slot receivers during that time frame. Jordan Vanek also highlighted Allen's route and matchup-based merit for usage this week (check the whole Twitter thread for the embedded tweet).
Austin Ekeler is also an integral part of LA's passing attack and has a sweet matchup. The pass-catching running back was second on the Chargers in Target Share (15.5%) and receptions (38) on Herbert's 283 passes since Week 12. In addition, the Chargers' dynamic back had 652 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns in the last seven games of the regular season.
Ekeler can give the Jaguars fits through the air. Since Week 12, Jacksonville's coughed up the ninth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards per game to running backs. So, Ekeler should pile up valuable touches in the passing game. And, obviously, Ekeler's receptions are more valuable on DK's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) format than FD's half-point PPR format. Nonetheless, he's a high-upside pick on FD, too.
Donald Parham is a nifty bargain option at tight end or flex when paired with Kittle. The pass-catching tight end has run 47 routes since Week 15, reaching double-digit routes in each game and spiking for a season-high 17 in Week 18. Parham has also had multiple receptions and more than 30 receiving yards in three of his previous five games and scored a touchdown in one of the outlier contests. Finally, the matchup is good. The Jags have tied for the third-most DK points per game allowed and permitted the third-most FD points per game to tight ends since Week 12.
Jaguars Analysis: Trevor Lawrence destroyed the Chargers in Week 3, passing for 262 yards and three touchdowns. he had a multi-week lull after that performance before finding his stride down the stretch. The sophomore signal-caller had more than 300 passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns in three of his last seven games. Lawrence also rushed for two touchdowns since Week 12. Lawrence is an optimizer darling, projecting as the QB1 and for the highest value score at the position on Saturday's main slate.
Lawrence has spread the wealth and chosen various favorite options throughout the year. Yet, Christian Kirk was regularly involved, and he'll have the best matchup of Lawrence's primary weapons. Since Week 12, Kirk was second on the Jags in targets (51), receptions (32) and Air Yards (436) and first in receiving yards (429) on Lawrence's pass attempts. Zay Jones narrowly edged him out in targets (53) and receptions (33).
However, Kirk's matchup from the slot is better than Jones's on the perimeter. In Jacksonville's final seven games in the regular season, Kirk led the team in slot rate (73.0%), and Jones played only 32.2% of his snaps in the slot. Conversely, the Chargers allowed 13.7 DK points per game and 10.7 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts versus 16.0 and 12.6 to slots since Week 12.
Jamal Agnew is a low-floor punt. The offensive weapon and returner had under 10 scrimmage yards in his previous three games but had more than 40 scrimmage yards in Week 14 and Week 15 and scored touchdowns in Week 4 and Week 12. Jacksonville's also awarded him targets and touches in the scoring territory. In fact, Agnew's three touchdown receptions inside the 10-yard line were the second most on the team this season. Agnew also had two rushes inside the 20-yard line. The veteran also has a long-shot path to touchdowns on returns since he's scored four touchdowns on punt returns and two on kick returns in his career.
Travis Etienne has the best matchup for the Jaguars. The Chargers are 26th in rush defense DVOA and have been torched for 5.4 yards per carry by running backs since Week 12. As a result, Etienne can bounce back from a forgettable night against Tennessee's stout run defense last week. Before stumbling last week, Etienne had 127 scrimmage yards (103 rushing yards), 112 scrimmage yards (83 rushing yards) and 140 scrimmage yards (108 rushing yards) from Week 15 through Week 17. The speedy back should get back on track this week and has the RB1 value score at both DFS providers on Saturday's slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
