PGA DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Primer: Farmers Insurance Open (2023)

The PGA Tour stays in southern California this week and begins a day earlier than standard procedure. That’s right, the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open will begin Wednesday and conclude Saturday, the only official PGA event built in this fashion. Torrey Pines Golf Courses are scenic but filled with difficulty, especially the South course, which players will compete on in three of the four rounds. Torrey Pines North is easier based on scorecards from a year ago, averaging 68.7 compared to 73.01 on the South course. Jon Rahm is once again a significant betting favorite at this event, which he hasn’t officially logged an outright win at, excluding the 2021 U.S. Open that was held at Torrey Pines South. Last year’s Farmers Insurance Open winner was PGA Tour veteran Luke List, who secured the first outright win of his career last season.

Rahm has won four of his past five events outright, including consecutive wins at Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express, mounting an impressive comeback in the former and dominating in the latter. Whether it’s his top-ranked greens in regulation conversion at 81 percent, a 6.67 birdie average, or ranking first in strokes gained off-the-tee, the 28-year-old Spaniard is flirting with superstardom the likes of which we haven’t seen since Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Rahm is +450 to win outright, while Tony Finau (10/1), Xander Schauffele (11/1), Will Zalatoris (16/1), and Justin Thomas (18/1) round out the top five projected outright winners on most sportsbooks. Zalatoris was outplayed by List during the first hole of the sudden playoff format at the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open, so he’ll be motivated to avenge the runner-up finish he produced at Torrey Pines a year ago.

Let’s quickly touch on last week’s recommended DFS prospects. Obviously, Jon Rahm was a massive boost in all lineups with his dominant -27-under-par finish. Taylor Montgomery had a fifth-place finish (-24), while Si Woo Kim (T22/-19), Patrick Cantlay (T26/-18), Andrew Putnam (T36/-16), and Russell Knox (T54/-13) all managed to make the cut but struggled to maintain enough consistency to deliver T10 finishes. Overall, it wasn’t a bad slate for the results, but we’ve got a great opportunity to cash some contests at Torrey Pines this week. Here are six of my favorite recommended prospects ahead of the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open from the sunny coasts of San Diego, California.

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Previous Winners

2022 – Luke List (-15)
2021 – Patrick Reed (-14)
2020 – Marc Leishman (-15)
2019 – Justin Rose (-21)
2018 – Jason Day (-10)

Relevant Betting Stats

Greens in Regulation percentage
Driving Distance
Sand save percentage
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green

Course Overview

Torrey Pines consists of a North and South course, which will be played by a jam-packed field on Wednesday and Thursday. A cut-line will be enforced after the first 36 holes have concluded, sending those who advanced back to the South course for the final two rounds. The South course is a par 72 track that stretches to 7,765 yards and is among the hardest courses to win at based on previous events. Initially designed by William P. and William F. Bell in 1957, renovations were made in 2001 and most recently in 2019 by Rees Jones. The North course runs shorter at 7,258 yards and averaged nearly five strokes lower than its companion South course did during the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open.

Four par 3s and four par 5s are distributed evenly throughout the South course, with sprawling sand bunkers flanking most of the Poa Bentgrass greens that will run fast, measuring roughly 13 feet via Stimpmeter. Coastal winds make up for the lack of trees and water hazards on the South course, but the fairways are long and arduous to navigate. The rough has also grown up to four inches to make errant tee shots and drivers pay the price. “Devlin’s Billabong” is a pond that sits directly in front of the 18th green, nicknamed after a player who hit numerous water shots years ago, so it’s a lurking presence that challenges even the best ball-strikers at the end of the South course. Only Justin Rose has managed to finish with a scorecard of -20-under-par or lower in the past five Farmers Insurance Open events, which occurred back in 2019. There will still be plenty of birdie opportunities for players on the four par 5s, but the distance each tee shot needs to carry is significant, so players with a blend of power and accuracy will benefit the most.

Recommended Plays: DraftKings

DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000

Jon Rahm: $11,600
This recommendation should come as no surprise. Whether it’s winning back-to-back events, boasting the top-ranked greens in regulation conversion at 81 percent, or averaging over 6.6 birdies per round, Jon Rahm is a must-add into DFS lineups of all shapes and sizes. Yes, the salary is outrageous on DraftKings since you only have $50,000 to work with when constructing lineups, but Rahm will cover up the lack of production if you wind up missing on a salary saver. He’s won at Torrey Pines South before during a high-stakes major at the 2021 U.S. Open, so expect the 28-year-old Spaniard to stay motivated to clinch his first Farmers Insurance Open title this weekend.

Taylor Montgomery: $9,200
Taylor Montgomery has played nine solo events this season, drawing four T10 finishes and making all nine of the cuts. Montgomery is averaging 91.7 FPPG on DraftKings and is available to roster at a massive value, going for only $9,200. He only played two events last season but one of them was at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he logged a T11 (-12) finish after going even par in his first round. The 27-year-old Las Vegas native also competed at the 2021 U.S. Open that Rahm won, which was held at Torrey Pines. Montgomery has a wicked putter, ranked seventh in strokes gained putting, and is also equipped with a powerful driver that will be useful to bypass the lengthy fairways.

Adam Hadwin: $8,200
35-year-old Canadian Adam Hadwin has been in good form lately. He has finishes of T7 and T18 in his last two events, taking a couple of months off during the holiday break before resuming the T18 finish at The American Express this past weekend, finishing with an impressive scorecard of -20-under-par. Hadwin is ranked 16th in strokes gained around the green, 31st in strokes gained putting, and averages 4.5 birdies per round. He missed the cut at Farmers in 2022 but has previous finishes of T18, T35, and T49, so he’s not a high-risk player in terms of salary-savers. Hadwin may reach a T25 finish but that’s all you need with studs like Rahm anchoring your DFS lineups, so go ahead and plug Hadwin in at a good value.

Recommended Plays: FanDuel

FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000

Xander Schauffele: $11,800
Xander Schauffele is essentially playing at his home course. The La Jolla native has a ton of strengths and very few weaknesses in his golf game. He’s ranked first in strokes gained around the green, 46th in strokes gained putting, and 14th in strokes gained tee-to-green. His accuracy with his irons is what makes Schauffele so special, but he also can get it done with the flat stick. Previous finishes of T34, T2, MC, T25, MC, MC, MC show just how far he’s developed his skillset throughout the years. He’s a top-three betting favorite to win outright and he delivered a ten-under-par finish in the final round at The American Express last weekend, showing us all that he’s ready to win now. You have to pay up but it’s well worth the price of admission.

Sahith Theegala: $10,100
Sahith Theegala burst onto the scene as a rookie last season and had some memorable moments. The 25-year-old native of southern California logged a T25 finish during his first Farmers Insurance Open event in 2022. While none of Theegala’s metrics pop off of the screen, he was in top form prior to the holiday break, logging three T10 finishes and nearly winning the RSM Classic back in November. I’m willing to invest in Theegala’s upside, which we haven’t seen at Sentry or The AmEX, but if he can unleash some of his best golf at Torrey Pines as he did a year ago, Theegala makes for a solid value in FanDuel lineups at $10.1K.

Hayden Buckley: $9,600
Hayden Buckley couldn’t hold his lead against Si Woo Kim during the 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii a couple of weeks ago but he took last weekend off and should be mentally and physically prepared to get back into the competition on Wednesday. The 26-year-old native of Mississippi has two T10 finishes this season, making the cut in six of seven events, while ranking 22nd in greens in regulation conversion at 74.3 percent. Buckley is a wizard with his irons, only struggling with strokes gained around the green, while ranking third in strokes gained off-the-tee and 32nd in strokes gained tee-to-green. He should be able to excel on the various par 3 and par 5 holes at Torrey Pines, where his only previous finish in 2022 was a missed cut. It’s a bit risky but I like Buckley’s form as of late, so let’s save a few bucks and insert him into FanDuel lineups at $9.6K.

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.