The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here weekly, giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.
No House Advantage is offering three options for their Pick’ Ems contest this Sunday for the early 1 PM EST Slate. Entry fees range from $5 to $15. The following prop bet picks apply to all three contests.
Andy Dalton (QB – NO) OVER 0.5 Interceptions
The New Orleans Saints have managed to win their last two contests despite the mediocre-at-best play of QB Andy Dalton. Last week, the journeyman veteran completed just eight of 15 passing attempts for 92 yards and an interception. While it was an unusually poor week for Dalton in lousy weather, this week doesn’t look much better against the feared Philadelphia Eagles defense.
Even with Gardner Minshew likely starting in place of the injured Jalen Hurts, the middling Saints will probably be playing from behind most of the game. That should have Dalton throwing more than the 15 times he did in Week 16. That’s terrible news up against a secondary averaging 1.07 interceptions per game. I expect Dalton to be flustered early and often, and I am playing the over on this interception prop as a high-priority bet in Week 17.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
This isn’t the Jacksonville Jaguars squad we got to know early in 2022. After a stagnant start, head coach Doug Pederson has QB Trevor Lawrence and company on a roll and in playoff contention. Lawrence is finally showing why he was the number-one overall pick in 2021. Since the Jaguars’ Week 11 bye, he has been outstanding, throwing 11 touchdown passes in his last five games.
Week 16 was his lone contest without a touchdown pass, which isn’t surprising considering he was up against the staunch Jets secondary. While their Week 17 opponent, the Houston Texans, have been decent facing the passing game, I expect Lawrence to continue the Jaguars’ march towards an unlikely playoff berth this week in style. Therefore, I’m playing the over on this touchdown pass prop for Lawrence as a mid-priority play for Week 17.
Nick Foles (QB – IND) UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Indianapolis Colts franchise continues to be an absolute mess in 2022. The team lost star RB Jonathan Taylor for the season in Week 15 and has benched QB Matt Ryan for a second time this season, this time in favor of veteran journeyman Nick Foles.
Foles made his 2022 debut last week, and it didn’t go well. He completed just 17 of his 28 passing attempts and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers. While their secondary is improved as of late, it was clear Foles was rusty and out of sorts all day. The Colts travel to New York this week for a Sunday date with the Giants. While the Gmen have been good against QBs this season, allowing an average of 1.33 touchdown passes per game. I don’t expect Foles to be above average this week, and I am quickly taking the under on this passing touchdown prop. I like it so much I’m playing it as a high-priority pick for Week 17.
Rachaad White (RB – TB) UNDER 42.5 Rushing Yards
In the middle of this season, it looked like rookie RB Rachaad White was primed to take over as the back in Tampa Bay. However, after a big Week 10 against Seattle, he has yet to eclipse 40 rushing yards but twice, in Weeks 12 and 14. The volume hasn’t been there since he had 22 carries in London, and last week he saw just seven rushing touches in an overtime win against Arizona.
Tampa Bay is in must-win territory this week against the Carolina Panthers. A playoff slot is at stake, and Carolina has improved much over the last few weeks. I expect White to be more involved in the passing attack, seeing an average of 5.6 targets over the previous five weeks, than in the rushing attack. Fellow RB Leonard Fournette should have the ground game on lockdown, and in a pivotal Week 17 match-up, I’m taking the under on this rushing prop for White. There is a chance he is more involved in running the ball than we expect, so take this as a low-priority play to hedge your bets for Week 17.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.
