Continuing in Week 19 and throughout the NFL playoffs, I will be providing my top player props from Underdog Fantasy’s Pick’em contest.
From unders-or-overs to more-or-less, there’s really no better time to dive into player props with the fantasy football season concluded. Let the game sweats keep coming!
Note that lines may change from the time this is published, in which case I will update the numbers in accordance with what the lines are on the platform, along with any newer props that I think are worthy of targeting.
Let’s get it.
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NFL Wild Card Weekend Underdog Fantasy Player Prop Bet Picks (2023)
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX): UNDER 58.5 receiving yards
- Since Week 6 the Chargers have allowed the 8th-fewest fantasy points allowed per game (14.9) to QBs and the 4th-fewest passing yards allowed per game (202).
- No. 3 defense vs. slot WRs.
- No. 2 defense in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers.
- Since the Jaguars’ bye week in Week 11, Christian Kirk has gone over his projected line in just 3 of his 7 games played, averaging fewer targets per game than teammate Zay Jones.
- Consider parlaying Kirk’s under with an over for Jones’ receiving yards prop at 48.5 receiving yards. Zay leads the team in targets since Week 11 and had a monster game versus the Chargers back in Week 3.
- He hung a 29% target share (11 targets) and 10 catches for 89 yards.
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): UNDER 46.5 rushing yards
- Devin Singletary has totaled 22 carries for 55 yards in two games against the Dolphins this season
- Miami has allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs since Week 7.
- They have also faced the fewest rushing attempts faced per game since Week 11. Over the same time span, only two RBs have surpassed 45 rushing yards.
- James Cook played a season-high 56% snap share in Week 18 versus the Patriots and was the heavily favored back after Singletary lost a fumble.
- Considering we have seen Buffalo punish Singletary in the past for fumbling, Cook’s coming out party could be during the Bills’ playoff run.
Isaiah Hodgins (WR – NYG): OVER 43.5 receiving yards
- Daniel Jones‘ passing yards prop has been getting smashed towards the over. Opened at 205.5 passing yards in several spots and now it’s up to 238.5 passing yards (and climbing).
- The Vikings have allowed the most fantasy points overall to WRs and also the most passing yards allowed per game since Week 7.
- The Giants went +8% pass rate over expectation the last time they faced Minnesota. 70% pass rate on early downs. Jones threw for 334 passing yards.
- From Weeks 13-17, Darius Slayton has been more of a number 2 than true No. 1, actually trailing both Isaiah Hodgins (22%) and Richie James Jr. (23%) in target share, receptions, and fantasy points scored.
- That trend continued in Week 17 when Slayton caught just 2 passes for 14 yards on 3 targets. Hodgins commanded a 22% target share and caught 4 passes for 42 yards and one TD.
- James Jr. took advantage of the favorable matchup in the slot versus Indianapolis and caught all 7 of his targets (30%) for 76 yards and 1 touchdown.
- Hodgins went 8 for 89 and 1 on 12 targets the last time he played Minnesota.
- And since Week 13, Hodgins has averaged 5 catches for 50 yards (6.6 targets per game)
- Consider stacking the overs with Hodgins and/or Jones with James Jr. (O/U at 47.5 receiving yards)
- James went 8 for 90 on 11 targets versus the Vikings and he has averaged 5.5 catches for 54 yards (6.6 targets) since Week 13.
- The Vikings have allowed the most fantasy points to slot WRs since Week 7.
Check out our NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Guide
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