NFL DFS Wild Card Advice & Picks: Sunday Slate (2023 Fantasy Football)

The regular season concluded with a bang as the Green Bay Packers flopped their way out of the playoffs allowing the Seahawks to waltz in. Seeding and player rest scenarios unfolded.

As I stated in last week’s Primer, if a player isn’t mentioned in this writeup, they aren’t part of my DFS player pool. If you have questions about why I left anyone out, hop into our Discord, and I’ll be happy to explain why.

Now the bright lights of playoff football beam down upon this slate. Will Cinderella seasons continue? Will the studs worth paying up for in DFS carry me to the top or leave me crying into my couch in Week 19? Let’s find out.

Good luck in DFS, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards.

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NFL DFS Wild Card Advice & Picks: Sunday Slate (2023 Fantasy Football)

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -9.5, O/U 46.5
• Dolphins vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Josh Allen: Since Week 9, Allen has been fifth in PFF passing grade, tenth in passing yards, 22nd in adjusted completion rate, and 21st in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). His rushing equity has been covering up for any shortcomings as a passer. Over his last nine games, he’s averaged 50.7 rushing yards per game with six rushing touchdowns. He has surpassed 20 fantasy points per game in five of his last six games with two massive games (29.9 and 35.8 fantasy points). Since Week 14, the Dolphins have been a middle-of-the-road pass defense. Over the last five weeks, they have been 24th in pass defense DVOA, 15th in success rate per drop back, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Weeks 16-18

Jeff Wilson: Since Wilson’s return in Week 16, he’s played 60-65% of snaps averaging 15.3 touches and 63.3 total yards. Wilson ranks 37th in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway rate, and 29th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). Since Week 14, the Bills have been 19th in rushing yards per game, 27th in yards per carry, and eighth in rushing success rate allowed.

Raheem Mostert: Over the last three weeks, Mostert has averaged 13.3 touches and 67.0 total yards while playing 37-52% snaps. Wilson has had the playing time edge, but Mostert has been outproducing him in yardage while seeing more red zone work. Mostert is a wild card play worth sprinkling in GPPs. Mostert is 26th in evaded tackles, 20th in breakaway runs, and 26th in yards created.

Tyreek Hill: Hill in an interesting GPP play. The quarterback situation surrounding him will keep his roster percentage in check, but Hill has the talent to pop off any week even with a limited signal caller. He saw a 22.5% target share last week with 55 receiving yards. Hill has a 32.3% (second-best) target share and 39.8% air yard share (third-best) this season. He leads the NFL in deep targets while ranking fifth in open rate. Hill will run about 54% of his routes against Tre’Davious White (53.3% catch rate, 70.7 passer rating), Dane Jackson (61.3% catch rate, 86.1 passer rating), and Kaiir Elam (75.6% catch rate, 98.9 passer rating).

Stefon Diggs: Diggs has a 28.2% target share (tenth), a 32.6% air yard share (15th), and a 30.3% target per route run rate (seventh-best). He ranks fourth in red zone targets and 18th in deep targets. Diggs remains among the league’s elite sitting at seventh in open rate. Xavien Howard has only followed Diggs on 49-51% of his routes in their two meetings this season. Howard (since Week 12: 66.7% catch rate, 85.7 passer rating) did limit him to five receptions (eight targets) and 66 receiving yards total. When Diggs isn’t matched with Howard, he’ll see Keion Crossen (56.3% catch rate, 104.7 passer rating) for much of the day.

Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie is a solid stacking partner with Allen. Last week, he only saw a 9.6% target share, but his route run rate jumped to 72.2%. McKenzie has displayed the ability to have big games out of the blue. He has two weeks this season with at least 76 receiving yards and a score. McKenzie will run about 86% of his routes against Kader Kohou (65.1% catch rate, 80.7 passer rating). Since Week 14, Miami has been 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to slot receivers.

Dawson Knox: Knox has a 13.3% target share, ranking 30th in yards per route run and 19th in red zone targets. He smashed this soft matchup in Week 15, securing six of his eight targets with 98 receiving yards and a touchdown. Knox is primed for another big stat line this week. Miami is 30th in DVOA, 32nd in catch rate, and 24th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

• MIN -3, O/U 48.5
• Giants vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Daniel Jones: Jones has been an efficient passer which has helped create a solid floor for his fantasy production. Jones is 20th in PFF passing grade and first in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). He has displayed a passing ceiling when he’s been pushed with two 300-yard outings and four weeks with multiple passing touchdowns. Jones tossed for 334 yards the last time he faced the Vikings. Jones’ 44.3 rushing yards per game, seven rushing touchdowns, and four weeks with at least 70 rushing yards have given him slate breaking upside. Jones is a fantastic GPP and cash-game quarterback. Since Week 14, the Vikings have been 19th in success rate per dropback, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Kirk Cousins: Cousins’ ripped this secondary apart during their last meeting with 299 yards, three passing scores, and a 70.8% completion rate. Cousins has balled out all season, ranking ninth in PFF passing grade, 13th in adjusted completion rate, and seventh in big-time throws (minimum 100 dropbacks). Cousins has three games with at least 357 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. Since Week 14, the Giants have been 12th in EPA per dropback, 23rd in fantasy points per game, and 17th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is the straw that stirs the Giants’ drink averaging 22.0 touches and 103.1 total yards per game. Barkley is third in opportunity share, fourth in weighted opportunities, and 15th in red zone touches. He juked his way to sixth in evaded tackles, second in breakaway runs, and fifth in yards created. Since Week 14, the Vikings’ run defense has been 18th in rushing success rate, 20th in EPA per rush, and 20th in rushing yards per game allowed. In Week 16, Barkley rolled up 22 touches and 133 total yards against this defense.

Dalvin Cook: I’ll update Cook’s status on Friday. He left last week’s game with a knee injury. If Cook can’t go, Alexander Mattison would be the plug-and-play bellcow.

Darius Slayton: Since Week 7, Slayton has had a 19.5% target share, 14.3% end zone target share, and a 36.6% air yard share. He’s performed quite well this season ranking 23rd in yards per route run and 18th in open rate. The issue for Slayton has been and remains his lack of high value usage. He ranks 48th in deep targets and 106th in red zone targets (three). Slayton secured four of his six targets for 79 scoreless receiving yards against this defense in Week 16. Slayton is a game stack or staking option with Jones. He’ll run about 71% of his routes against Duke Shelley (48.8% catch rate, 57.9 passer rating), Patrick Peterson (58.9% catch rate, 66.8 passer rating), and Kris Boyd (80% catch rate, 127.1 passer rating).

Richie James: In Weeks 14-17, James had a (team-leading) 25% target share, a 31.3% air yard share, and 2.05 yards per route run. He has at least 60 receiving yards in three of his last four games, with a pair of touchdowns. James is a priority play that will run about 92% of his routes against Chandon Sulivan (79.1% catch rate, 108.5 passer rating). The Vikings have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season.

Isaiah Hodgins: Since Week 13, Hodgins has had a 21.8% target share, a 75% end zone target share, a 33.5% air yard share, and 1.50 yards per route run. Yes, you read that correctly, a 75% end zone target share which Hodgins has made the most of with touchdowns in four of his last five games. Hodgins ran 41% of his routes from the slot in Week 17, so while he’s primarily a boundary receiver that will match up Shelley, Peterson, and Boyd, he will also see plenty of Sullivan.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson lit this secondary on fire in Week 16 with 12 receptions, 133 receiving yards, and a score. Jefferson likely does it again this week. He is seventh in target share, eighth in air yard share, ninth in deep targets, and first in red zone targets. Jefferson will run about 64% of his routes against Cordale Flott (69.6% catch rate, 106.8 passer rating) and Rodarius Williams (62.5 catch rate, 59.6 passer rating).

K.J. Osborn: Since Week 15, Osborn has been asserting himself in this passing attack with a 20.3% target share and 20.9% air yard share. Over his last four games, he has two scores and three games with at least 59 receiving yards (two 100-yard outings). Since Week 15, he has had five red zone targets. He will run about 54% of his routes against Nick McCloud (61.9% catch rate, 106.0 passer rating). Osborn is a fantastic pivot option on the six-game slate off of more popular wide receivers around him in pricing.

T.J. Hockenson: In Weeks 9-17 as a Viking, Hockenson has had a 23.4% target share, a 30.4% end zone target share (second to only Jefferson over this span), and a 20.7% air yard share. Hockenson has at least 77 receiving yards in two of the last four full games he has played. New York has been 31st in DVOA, 30th in catch rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -7.5, O/U 42
• Ravens vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Joe Burrow: Burrow is tops in PFF passing grade while also ranking tenth in adjusted completion rate and ninth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Burrow is coming off a disappointing performance against this defense in Week 18 with 215 passing yards (one touchdown) and 5.1 yards per attempt. He could not light the Ravens up in their earlier season meeting either, with only 217 passing yards (6.2 yards per attempt) and one touchdown. I’m still willing to toss my chips in with Burrow against a defense that, since Week 14, has been 18th in success rate per dropback and 18th in EPA per dropback. Burrow has a path to a ceiling if he is willing to chuck it deep. Baltimore is 32nd in deep completion rate allowed. Burrow ranks eighth in deep completion rate and second in deep ball accuracy rating.

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase has crushed the Ravens over the last two seasons. He’s seen at least ten targets in each of the last four games surpassing 86 receiving yards three contests with two receiving touchdowns. Chase has a 29.3% target share (sixth-best), a 36.6% air yard share (ninth-best), and a 27.9% target per route run rate (13th). Chase ranks third in red zone targets and 20th in yards per route run. Since his Week 13 return, he is tied with Higgins for the team lead in deep targets. Chase will run about 81% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (65.7% catch rate, 71.7 passer rating) and Daryl Worley (50% catch rate, 98.8 passer rating). Burrow’s ceiling is tied to his alpha receiver, Chase.

Tee Higgins: Higgins has been quieter against the Ravens, with below 70 receiving yards and zero touchdowns in two of his last three full games against this defense. That doesn’t mean that he can’t pop off for a big game this week. Higgins has an 18.6% target share and a 27.9% air yard share. He ranks 25th in yards per route run and 22nd in open rate among wideouts. Single stacking Burrow this week is an option with only Chase, but if you pair two receiver options with Burrow, it’s a premium Chase and Higgins double for me. Higgins will run about 85% of his routes against Humphrey and Worley.

Mark Andrews: Andrews has had an up-and-down season. Injuries and a quarterback carousel muted his second half. The last time we saw him in Week 17, he was back on the good foot securing all nine targets with 100 receiving yards. Andrews has a 29.0% target share (first) and 31.5% air yard share (second-best). He is also fifth in deep targets, and fourth in red zone looks among tight ends. Since Week 14, Cincinnati has been 25th in fantasy points per game and 27th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.