NFL DFS Wild Card Advice & Picks: Saturday Slate (2023 Fantasy Football)

The regular season concluded with a bang as the Green Bay Packers flopped their way out of the playoffs allowing the Seahawks to waltz in. Seeding and player rest scenarios unfolded.

If a player isn’t mentioned in this writeup, they aren’t part of my DFS player pool. If you have questions about why I left anyone out, hop into our Discord, and I’ll be happy to explain why.

Now the bright lights of playoff football beam down upon this slate. Will Cinderella seasons continue? Will the studs worth paying up for in DFS carry me to the top or leave me crying into my couch in Week 19? Let’s find out.

Good luck in DFS, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards.

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NFL DFS Wild Card Advice & Picks: Saturday Slate (2023 Fantasy Football)

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -9.5, O/U 43
• Seahawks vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Brock Purdy: Purdy is the quarterback play if you want to make your lineup auto-different. He should easily be the fourth-highest rostered quarterback on the two-game Saturday slate. If you’re playing the full six-game slate, he’ll be buried even further. Purdy is 13th in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Seattle is a perfect matchup for Purdy to shred. They are ranked 20th in yards per attempt, 29th in YAC, and 25th in missed tackles allowed. Purdy can play point guard and let his receivers pile up the fantasy points.

Weeks 10, 11, & 18

Christian McCaffrey: I’ll let the field sway me on how much McCaffrey will be in my lineups this week. If he’s popular, I’ll match the field or underweight. In the last three games that he’s played with Mitchell (when he didn’t leave due to injury), McCaffrey has averaged 16.3 touches and 87.3 total yards. Yes, there is some noise in this sample with Week 18 being included, but this is a hefty price tag to pay for a running back that’s split the red zone work down the middle with Mitchell. McCaffrey is a leverage play, so if the field is off of him this week, I’ll be overweight, and vice versa. McCaffrey ranks 14th in evaded tackles, seventh in breakaway runs, and third in yards created. Since Week 14, Seattle has been 26th in fantasy points per game, 23rd in rushing success rate, and 30th in EPA per rush.

Elijah Mitchell: In the same span, Mitchell has averaged 10.6 rushing attempts and 67.3 rushing yards with a sizable red zone role. Mitchell has been explosive when he’s been healthy and available. He ranks 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 26th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 40 rushing attempts). Mitchell is a better FanDuel play than DraftKings with his non-existent pass-game role, but he’s viable on both sites. Mitchell will go overlooked on DraftKings as he’s priced in a range with some other intriguing pass-catching options. With a smash matchup incoming and two-touchdown upside, Mitchell is a fine GPP play.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett’s snap rate bounced back last week to 79%. This week, he should be the primary means for Chef Geno’s aerial attack. Lockett handled a 21.3% target share and 29.3% air yard share this season. He should lead the way in attacking the 49ers’ zone-based coverage scheme. San Francisco’s top corners have operated in zone on 62-67% of their snaps since Week 16. Lockett ranks 12th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run against zone (minimum 15 zone coverage targets). Lockett will run about 56% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (59.7% catch rate, 88.2 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (71.6% catch rate, 96.8 passer rating). Still, he has also seen 45% of his target volume from the slot, which means plenty of Jimmie Ward (81.4% catch rate, 94.0 passer rating).

Deebo Samuel: Samuel returned to the lineup to play 68% of the snaps with a 15.7% target share. Samuel’s snap share can be taken with a grain of salt as the 49ers were beating the brakes off the Cardinals. In Weeks 1-13, Samuel had a 24.1% target share and 16.2% air yard share (4.8 aDOT). Over that stretch, Samuel ranked 27th in PFF receiving grade and third in YAC per reception (minimum 20 targets). He saw 25% of his target volume from the slot and 26.3% of his target on screens. The name of the game for Kyle Shanahan this week should be to put Samuel in space against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most YAC and 11th-most missed tackles.

George Kittle: If Samuel isn’t carrying the San Francisco passing attack this week, it’ll be Kittle. Since Purdy has been the starter, Kittle has had a 22.2% target share and 23.9% air yard share. He’s scored seven touchdowns over his last four games. Kittle ranks third in PFF receiving grade, tenth in YAC per reception, and sixth in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Seattle ranks 27th in DVOA, 31st in receiving yards per game, and 32nd in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• LAC -0.5, O/U 47.5
• Chargers vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Justin Herbert: Herbert hasn’t surpassed 20 fantasy points since Week 11. Does he still carry a huge weekly ceiling that can explode in any game? Sure. Herbert is eighth in PFF passing grade, ninth in big-time throws, and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). This game carries a high total, so we expect some scoring here. That doesn’t mean it’s a smash matchup for Herbert. Since Week 14, Jacksonville has been 13th in success rate per dropback, third in EPA per drop back, and sixth in yards per attempt allowed. I’ll get my Herbert exposure if playing the two gamer for Saturday or in a large field GPP for the full six-game slate.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has remained on a heater since Week 9. He’s second in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, ninth in passing touchdowns and fifth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 14, the Chargers have been shutting down opposing quarterbacks. They have been fourth in yards per attempt, first in fantasy points per game, second in EPA per drop back, and second in success rate per dropback. Lawrence has been playing at such a high level that he’s in play despite the horrendous matchup, but this does make going away from the popular route of starting your builds with Herbert or Lawrence more palatable in favor of Purdy.

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler has been a beast all year. He ranks first in weighted opportunities, first in red zone touches, and 13th in opportunity share. He leads all running backs in receptions, touchdowns, and expected fantasy points per game. Ekeler is also sixth in evaded tackles, 15th in breakaway runs, and fifth in yards created per touch. Since Week 14, Jacksonville has been 11th in rushing success rate, fifth in EPA per rush, and eighth in yards per carry allowed. Whatever efficiency Ekeler loses on the ground, he can make up through the air against a defense that’s been 27th in receiving yards per game and 21st in yards per reception allowed to running backs since Week 14.

Travis Etienne: Etienne could break the slate this week. Before facing the Titans’ stonewall run defense in Week 18, Etienne had averaged 19.4 touches and 126.3 total yards over his three previous starts. He ranks 16th in weighted opportunities, third in red zone touches, 14th in yards created per touch, and fourth in breakaway runs. Since Week 14, the Chargers ranked 21st in rushing yards per game, 26th in rushing success rate, and 29th in EPA per rush.

Keenan Allen: Since Week 11, Allen has garnered a 26.7% target share and 34.6% air yard share. Allen has managed at least 80 receiving yards in six of his last eight games. Over that span, he’s been seventh in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Allen will run about 64% of his routes against Rayshawn Jenkins (78.8% catch rate, 88.4 passer rating).

Zay Jones: Jones has a 21.0% target share and 24.3% air yard share. He’s tied for 13th in red zone targets in the NFL with Russell Gage and T.J. Hockenson. Jones has hit a slump recently, having not surpassed 25 receiving yards in his last three games. Jones ranks 40th out of 89 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Jones will run about 66% of his routes against Michael Davis (52.0% catch rate, 77.3 passer rating) and Asante Samuel Jr. (59.6% catch rate, 97.6 passer rating).

Gerald Everett: Everett is ninth among 29 qualifying tight ends in open rate. Since Donald Parham‘s return, Everett has had a 9.9% target share and 52.8% route per dropback rate. He’s fifth among tight ends in red zone targets. Everett could be in line for a big day against a defense that’s 32nd in DVOA, 25th in fantasy points per game, and 30th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.