NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Divisional Round (Saturday)

The Divisional Round is here as the DFS season marches on. This week presents a beautiful four-game slate with high-powered offenses and high total games. As I’ve mentioned previously, if a player isn’t mentioned in this write-up, they aren’t part of my player pool for the week. There are many ways to build lineups this week as we all look for ways to get different.

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NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Divisional Round

Saturday Games

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -8.5, O/U 52.5
• Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Trevor Lawrence: Despite tossing four picks last week, Lawrence was successful with his comeback efforts while tossing for 288 yards and four scores. Lawrence bounced back from three down weeks, which still doesn’t take away from the tear he has been on since Week 9. Over his last ten games, Lawrence has ranked second in PFF passing grade, fourth in adjusted completion rate, and second to only Josh Allen in big-time throws (minimum 150 dropbacks). Lawrence is a contrarian play on this slate, but if he becomes popular, I’m likely to fade him. Since Week 14, the Chiefs have been third in success rate per dropback, fifth in EPA per drop back, and second in yards per attempt allowed.

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is a fantasy point-scoring machine. Over his last 13 games played, he has ten outings with at least 23 DK points and six 30 DK point games. Mahomes is top-five in yards per attempt, fantasy points per dropback, passing touchdowns, and true passer rating. Jacksonville has been able to get after the quarterback this year, ranking fourth in pressure rate despite only sitting at 15th in blitz rate. Mahomes has been Superman against swarming rushers ranking fourth in pressured PFF passing grade, tenth in pressured yards per attempt, and seventh in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). Since Week 14, Jacksonville has ranked 14th in success rate per dropback, fourth in EPA per drop back, and 12th in explosive pass rate allowed. Despite the tough matchup, I’ll bet on Mahomes against any defense on the face of this planet.

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon is in play this week. One of the ways you attack this Jacksonville pass defense is with running backs in the passing game. Even last week, with his snaps dropping to 37%, he still retained a 41.2% route rate per dropback clip. Since Week 14, McKinnon has been an integral cog in the passing with a 17.1% target share, 48.2% route rate per drop back, and 2.74 yards per route run. He averaged 53 receiving yards with seven receiving touchdowns and a 32% target per route run mark. McKinnon can be played in a mini-stack with a Jacksonville player, stacked with Mahomes, or as a one-off if you’re looking to get exposure to this high total game around another game stack. Jacksonville has allowed the most receptions and fourth-highest receiving yards per game to running backs this season.

Christian Kirk: The attack point for passing attacks facing the Chiefs has been via the slot. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. They have recently changed their coverage assignments, but this remains one of Lawrence’s best avenues for moving the ball this week. Kirk had a 23.2% target share (24th) and 28.4% air yard share in the regular season. He was fifth in red zone targets and 12th in deep targets among wide receivers. Lawrence fed Kirk last week with 14 targets which he turned into eight grabs, 78 receiving yards, and a score in a tough assignment. Kirk torched this secondary in Week 10 with 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and he could easily do so again in Week 20. Kirk will run about 75% of his routes against Trent McDuffie, who has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 103.2 passer rating since transitioning to slot duties in Week 16.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Since his Week 13 return to full-time status, Smith-Schuster has had a 16.7% target share, a 20% end zone target share, and 12.4% air yard share. Smith-Schuster’s target share has been volatile with less than five targets in four of his last six games. Over that span, he also has two games with at least ten targets, so while the floor is low the weekly ceiling for work is still extremely high. Since Week 14, the Jaguars third in fantasy points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers, but they are only 18th in this metric against slot receivers. Since Week 16, Smith-Schuster has run about half of his routes from the slot. He has four games this season where he’s run at least 56% of his routes from the slot and this week could make for five. Andy Reid should load up Smith-Schuster with targets against Tre Herndon (69.2% catch rate, 119.5 passer rating).

Evan Engram: Evan Engram flipped a switch in Week 13. Since then, he has been an elite fantasy option with a 22.7% target share, 71.9 receiving yards per game, 15.6% air yard share, and 2.27 yards per route run. Engram has at least 90 receiving yards in three of his last seven games. Since Week 14, Kansas City has been 26th in fantasy points per game, 23rd in receiving yards per game, and tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Engram is one of the reasons that double tight-end lineups are viable this week.

Travis Kelce: Kelce ranked third in target share, third in air yard share, and eighth in deep targets. He leads the NFL in red zone targets. Kelce hasn’t managed to crest 50 receiving yards in his last two games, but this week will change the trend. Kelce had 81 receiving yards and a touchdown the last time he faced this defense. Jacksonville is one of the worst defenses in the NFL against tight ends. They rank 32nd in DVOA, 27th in catch rate, and 29th in receiving yards allowed to the position.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -7.5, O/U 48
• Giants vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Daniel Jones: Jones is a perfect GPP target this week. He has four games with at least 26 fantasy points, so the tournament-winning ceiling is definitely here. Jones has been threading the needle all year as a uber-efficient game manager in the passing department. While Jones is 24th in yards per attempt and 31st in air yards per attempt, he’s also fifth in accuracy rating, first in true completion rate, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Jones also has three 300-yard passing days on the 2022 resume. He put up 19.4 fantasy points against this defense earlier this year. The Eagles’ pass defense has been a murderer’s row all year, but they have looked mortal over the last few weeks. Since Week 14, they have been 22nd in success rate per dropback, 15th in EPA per drop back, and 24 in yards per attempt allowed.

Jalen Hurts: The most recent memory of Hurts against this defense could cloud the judgment of DFS gamers. In Week 18 against New York, Hurts completed 57.1% of his passes, ran for only 13 yards, managed only 6.5 yards per attempt, and finished with 9.4 fantasy points. An audible wet fart, no matter how you frame it. Don’t let that one week let you forget that he posted 30.4 fantasy points while completing 67.7% of his passes with 77 yards on the ground against the Giants in Week 14. Hurts has balled out this season, ranking sixth in PFF passing grade, second in fantasy points per dropback, and fourth in adjusted yards per attempt. He closed out the regular season ranking fourth in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns, and first in red zone carries per game. Since Week 14, the Giants have been 12th in success rate per dropback, 16th in EPA per drop back, and 14th in explosive pass rate allowed. New York has had flashes as a strong defense this season, and the return of Adoree’ Jackson helps, but Hurts has been an elite player all year surrounded by studs.

Saquon Barkley: Since Week 14, Barkley has been running with similar vigor that he displayed earlier in the season with 5.0 yards per carry. In that span, he’s ranked 12th in breakaway run rate. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 18.2 touches and 103.7 total yards. Barkley is an every down bell cow facing a defense that since Week 14 has been 14th in fantasy points per game, 12th in rushing success rate, 19th in rushing yards per game, and 17th in explosive run rate allowed. Barkley is one of the best bets for snaps and volume on this slate.

Miles Sanders: Sanders has been an underrated source of upside at the running position this season. In Weeks 11-17, he averaged 16.3 touches and 80.2 total yards. Sanders ravaged this run defense in Week 14 gashing them for 155 total yards with 18 touches. Sanders has three games this season with 25 or more fantasy points and one of them was against this run defense. Sanders is dripping with upside this week against a run defense that ranks 28th in rushing success rate, 32nd in EPA per rush, and 30th in explosive run rate allowed since Week 14.

Isaiah Hodgins: Since Hodgins burst onto the scene in Week 13, he’s been producing solid numbers. Over his last five games, he has a 23% target share, a 36.6% air yard share, and 1.73 yards per route run. Hodgins has been Jones’ favorite target near paydirt with a 66.7% (team-leading) end zone target share since Week 13. Hodgins ranks 16th in open rate among qualifying wide receivers immediately behind Ja’Marr Chase and Christian Watson. Hodgins will run about 82% of his routes against James Bradberry (since Week 14: 53.3% catch rate, 107.1 passer rating) and Darius Slay (63.6% catch rate, 127.7 passer rating). Since Week 14, Slay and Bradberry have operated in zone on 62% of his their coverage snaps. Since Week 13, Hodgins ranks tenth in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run against zone (minimum seven zone targets) with 62.5% of his target volume coming against the coverage.

A.J. Brown: Brown ranks eighth in target share (29.0%), ninth in target per route run rate (29.4%), and sixth in air yard share (39.4%). He’s also seventh in deep targets and 12th in red zone looks among wide receivers. Brown posted 70 receiving yards and a score and 95 (scoreless) receiving yards in his last two meetings with this secondary. Last week with Adoree’ Jackson back, the Giants deployed their starting corners in zone on 66-70% of their snaps. Brown has seen 48.2% of his target volume against zone this season ranking 21st in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run against zone (minimum 15 zone coverage targets). Brown is a priority stacking partner with Hurts. Brown will run about 74% of his routes against Jackson (57.6% catch rate, 87.5 passer rating) and Fabian Moreau (62.3% catch rate, 106.0 passer rating).

DeVonta Smith: Smith’s numbers against zone coverage have dipped slightly over the last few weeks, but he still has seen 55.3% of his target volume against the coverage running 16th in PFF receiving grade and 25th in yards per route run (minimum 15 zone targets). Overall, Smith has a 27.0% target share (14th) and 29.9% air yard share. He’s 19th in deep targets among wide receivers, with five red zone targets over his last four games. Smith will run about 74% of his routes against Jackson and Moreau. Double stacking Hurts with Brown, and Smith is viable.

Daniel Bellinger: Since Bellinger’s return in Week 13, he has had a 10.6% target share, 77.2% route per dropback rate, and 0.72 yards per route run. Bellinger hasn’t had much high-value usage this year, with zero deep targets and only three red zone targets over his last six games. Bellinger is a large field GPP or MME play. He’s an easy way to get different with your Jones stacks. Since Week 14, the Eagles have been 28th in catch rate, 25th in receiving yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Dallas Goedert: Goedert has a 19.4% target share (seventh-best) and 14.6% air yard share (11th-best). Goedert finally saw a pair of red zone targets in Week 18, which were his first since his return. Goedert has been an efficiency monster this season when healthy, ranking third in yards per route run and seventh in fantasy points per route run. The Giants have been gashed by tight ends all season, ranking 30th in catch rate, 23rd in receiving yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed.

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.