With the divisional round coming this weekend, we have a small slate involving an even smaller player pool for our DFS selections. At this point in the season, every team left is one of the best available and has players that we can make strong cases on using them. The issue is picking the correct people. Let’s discuss a few ways to attack this weekend and break this slate below.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) + Zay Jones (WR – JAX)
The first stack we are looking at is Trevor Lawrence and Zay Jones in the highest projected Over/Under on the slate this weekend. After the wild finish in Wild Card weekend, Lawrence is looking at a pass-happy game script against the Kansas City Chiefs. In three out of his last six games, he has thrown for over 40 passing attempts and his Over/Under sits at a high 30 at the time of this writing. Lawrence now faces the 20th-ranked passing DVOA that allows the eighth most passing yards, the fifth most rushing yards to the position, and the most passing touchdowns. As a result, Lawrence should have a low rostership percentage allowing us leverage over the field.
With the divisional round coming this weekend, we have a small slate involving an even smaller player pool for our DFS selections. At this point in the season, every team left is one of the best available and has players that we can make strong cases on using them. The issue is picking the correct people. Let’s discuss a few ways to attack this weekend and break this slate below.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) + Zay Jones (WR – JAX)
The first stack we are looking at is Trevor Lawrence and Zay Jones in the highest projected Over/Under on the slate this weekend. After the wild finish in Wild Card weekend, Lawrence is looking at a pass-happy game script against the Kansas City Chiefs. In three out of his last six games, he has thrown for over 40 passing attempts and his Over/Under sits at a high 30 at the time of this writing. Lawrence now faces the 20th-ranked passing DVOA that allows the eighth most passing yards, the fifth most rushing yards to the position, and the most passing touchdowns. As a result, Lawrence should have a low rostership percentage allowing us leverage over the field.
Zay Jones fits the size model I look for in my wide receivers. Jones stands at 6’2 and over 200 pounds. He also has higher than the average speed, which sits at 4.4(40 times). Jones faces a Chiefs defense that allows the eighth most receptions to wide receivers and the second most touchdowns. Last time out, he saw ten targets and hauled in eight for 68 yards. Since that game, the Chiefs’ defense has locked in on slowing down the slot but not the perimeter receiver, which is where Zay Jones plays. As the cheaper option between him and Christain Kirk, lean Jones this week.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) + Bengals D/ST
Ja’Marr Chase fits the size/talent model we discussed earlier with Zay Jones and he has been Joe Burrows’s right-hand man, especially in the last few weeks. In his previous six games, Chase has had seven or more receptions over 80 yards in every game but one(where he had 79) and four touchdowns. Chase is consistent and provides the ability of a safe floor with boom potential in a potential shootout.
The defense is a challenging play this week due to the small slate. Again we focus on sacks and pressures as they lead to turnovers which lead to more DFS points. This week the Bengals face Josh Allen, who, under the radar, has had the most turnovers of his career. Most people will play the Niners or even the Bills on the other side. Building leverage by playing this strong run defense with the potential for turnovers is critical for your potential income.
With the slate on the smaller side, we move on from our stacks and give you a few parting tidbits to end this article. So let’s break down a few more players to help you make the correct decisions.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
Did you know that three times this year, Miles Sanders has rushed for under 50 yards and then, in the next game, rushed for over 130+? This week he comes off a frustrating Week 18 and now faces the same Giants team that happened to allow the fourth most rushing yards in the NFL this season.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
At the time of this article, Barkley is showing a lower rostership percentage than Travis Etienne. When two players are close in salary with the same dual-threat skill set, you should always lean to the lower rostership percentage to build leverage against the field. Barkley does face an Eagles defense that has spent periods of the season struggling against a run. This game is also the third battle for a team, which usually leads to both teams knowing how to adapt, leaning the game back to a defensive running battle of the fittest between these two NFC East rivals.
Always read our FantasyPros articles to be up to date on research and never hesitate to reach out on Twitter @jpep20. Good luck and enjoy your weekend!
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