This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
As we move through the playoffs, “cheap” value will be harder and harder to find as teams tend to tighten up their tendencies when featuring their younger, and often cheaper for our purposes, players. But, that’s not to say there is no value, because as we know, any given Sunday, or in this weekend’s case, Saturday or Sunday. Let’s jump in…
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This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
As we move through the playoffs, “cheap” value will be harder and harder to find as teams tend to tighten up their tendencies when featuring their younger, and often cheaper for our purposes, players. But, that’s not to say there is no value, because as we know, any given Sunday, or in this weekend’s case, Saturday or Sunday. Let’s jump in…
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
NFL DFS Divisional Round Value Plays
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) @ KC $6,000
The Chiefs are 20th in pass defense DVOA, and, let’s face it, the Jags will have to score points if they plan to keep up with them. I’m sure you’ve heard the narrative that Lawrence has never lost on Saturday in his life, but let’s just hope he doesn’t come out the way he did against the chargers.
FanDuel
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) @ PHI $7,400
Jones did not play particularly well in either of the two games against the Eagles this year, but he’s coming off one of the best games of his career, and hopefully, he can carry some of that with him to Philly. The one thing that was really lacking when he played them this season was the rushing side of things. He had a mere 30 rushing yards in the first matchup and only 26 in the second game — for comparison’s sake, he had 78 rushing yards last week. Jones will be the key for the Giants if they want to win this game, and his rushing ability will go a long way to upsetting the Eagles as the Eagles boast the No. 1 ranked pass defense DVOA.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC) vs. JAX $6,000
When you’re hot, you’re hot — and McKinnon is scorching. McKinnon has at least one touchdown in six straight games, scoring more than once in two of those games, for a total of eight touchdowns over that span. I do expect the Chiefs to come out passing and passing a ton. Andy Reid’s record following a bye week is 26-and-6 if you include post and the regular season, one of the best marks in the history of the NFL. In other words, this Chiefs team will come out hyper-focused and well-coached, meaning points will be scored. This game has the highest total on the slate at 52.5, and the Chiefs have the highest implied total at 30.5. Oh, and did I mention the Jags are 30th in pass defense DVOA? Maybe I should have led with that?
Others to Consider: Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) $5,700
FanDuel
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC) vs. JAX $6,400
Others to Consider: James Cook (RB – BUF) $5,800 | Boston Scott (RB – PHI) $4,800
It’s McKinnon if you’re on Draftkings with the PPR element and Pacheco on Fanduel for the short-yardage touchdowns. Not as impressive as McKinnon’s six straight, but Pacheco has a touchdown in each of his last two games and could very easily be called upon again in the red zone. The Jags are much better against the run than they are against the pass, but the Chiefs score so many points Pacheco could fall into the end zone multiple times, and no one would be surprised.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Gabe Davis (WR – BUF) vs. CIN $4,800
Big Game Gabe showed up again last week. It’s playoff time, and Davis seems to save his best for last, so despite the relatively bad matchup with the Bengals (12th pass defense DVOA), Davis is the type of player that can win you a tournament. His big-game ability definitely leaves some volatility as he is just as likely to give you 4 points as he is 25, but on a four-game slate, it’s hard to ignore his upside.
Others to Consider: Zay Jones (WR – JAC) $4,700 | Richie James (WR – NYG) $3,900
FanDuel
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) vs. DAL $6,500
The Cowboys will have their hands full with the 49ers’ skill players on Sunday. Among Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, it’s easy to forget that Aiyuk is the leading receiver on the team. He only had five targets last week, catching three of them, but the two he didn’t catch should have been touchdowns. The deep bomb that, at first glance, looked like Brock Purdy missed the wide-open Deebo Samuel underneath would have been a touchdown had Aiyuk not stopped running his route, as illustrated in this Tweet:
And the other missed target was when Purdy scrambled around for what seemed like forever and hit Aiyuk in the back of the end zone, where he promptly dropped it. He’ll be looking to bounce back in this game, as I’m sure they looked at those two plays on film this week.
Others to Consider: Zay Jones (WR – JAC) $6,500
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Dawson Knox (TE – BUF) vs. CIN $3,800
All this guy does is catch touchdowns. He now has five straight games with a receiving touchdown, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again. Josh Allen seemingly forgot about Knox for a good portion of the season, but he has finally come to his senses and looks for Knox in and around pay dirt consistently. In fact, Knox has seven end zone targets on the season, five of which have come over the last five games of the season (per FTNFantasy).
FanDuel
Hayden Hurst (TE – CIN) @ BUF) $5,000
Hurst’s touchdown that wasn’t a touchdown last week killed me. I had nearly 80 percent exposure to him in my lineups, and seeing those points come off the board hurt. But, on the bright side, he still had a healthy six targets. For his price tag, he’s worth taking a shot on in hopes he can find the end zone this week.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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