We only have three games on hand in the association this Sunday. Smaller slates like this require a different approach than your larger ones. The top-tier plays become easier to identify, lineup construction often changes, and it can be more challenging to differentiate your lineups. One strategy that has proven to be lucrative is stacking players from a fantasy-friendly game environment and then having a few one-offs. There is usually no way around having some chalk in your lineups on small slates. Therefore, identifying value and strong pivot plays is essential, even more so than usual.
That said, there’s always a ton of information to dissect, whether it’s three or eleven games. So, let’s go ahead and get this week’s NBA DFS Primer rolling.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
We only have three games on hand in the association this Sunday. Smaller slates like this require a different approach than your larger ones. The top-tier plays become easier to identify, lineup construction often changes, and it can be more challenging to differentiate your lineups. One strategy that has proven to be lucrative is stacking players from a fantasy-friendly game environment and then having a few one-offs. There is usually no way around having some chalk in your lineups on small slates. Therefore, identifying value and strong pivot plays is essential, even more so than usual.
That said, there’s always a ton of information to dissect, whether it’s three or eleven games. So, let’s go ahead and get this week’s NBA DFS Primer rolling.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Schedule & Odds
- IND (+9.5) @ MEM (-9.5) O/U: 239.5
- LAC (+5) @ CLE (-5) O/U: 222
- NO (+9.5) @ MIL (-9.5) O/U: 234
Injury Report
Top Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C-MIL): $11,600 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Anyone wondering if Giannis is fully healthy got their answer when he dropped 41 points on the Pacers Friday night. Coming off that monster performance, he’ll be the premier pay-up option on Sunday’s small slate. The Freak averages close to 60 fantasy points a game on the year, and he hasn’t scored less than 50 in his last three games. In his first meeting against New Orleans, the superstar dropped a double-double with 41 points and 10 rebounds. A similar performance could be in store once again. However, with it being a nine-point spread, there is some blowout risk, and you can save a good amount of salary by leaving him out of your lineups. The decision of how much exposure to have to Giannis on Sunday will undoubtedly be an important one when it comes to taking down contests, but I definitely won’t be fading him.
Ja Morant (PG-MEM): $10,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Ja will be the other go-to pay-up option, and depending on where his roster percentage ends up, he may be my favorite. Ja has scored 27 or more points in three consecutive games, and you would have to go back as far as 12 games to find where he’s scored less than 20. Morant and the Grizzlies are back at home Sunday, where his numbers improve across the board, and they play better as a team in general. I expect the Grizz to come out entirely focused and prepared to snap their four-game losing streak with Ja leading the way. We could be in store for a ceiling-type-of performance from the electrifying point guard tonight.
GPP Targets
CJ McCollum (PG/SG-NO): $8,200 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
There are better point-per-dollar options than McCollum, but I like targeting him in large-field tournaments on this short slate. The Pelicans will need a big night out of their veteran guard to keep the game within reach against the Bucks. In January, McCollum is averaging 25.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. He’s returned five times his value or better in his last two performances, and I think CJ has another one left in the tank against a Bucks team who have a middling OPRK against guards.
Myles Turner (C-IND): $7,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
I love Turner’s teammate TJ McConnell on Sunday’s slate, but I think the guards a much better cash-game option. Therefore, I’ll be targeting the big man in GPP’s. I think we’ll see most players shy away from Turner because of his tough matchup against the front-runner for defensive player of the year, Jaren Jackson Jr. However, as good as Jackson is on the defensive end, he tends to get overzealous, and often end up in foul trouble. Turner’s ability to stretch the floor and play at the rim can give JJJ some trouble early and often on Sunday. Turner has scored 20 or more points in three consecutive games, and the Pacers will need a similar offensive performance out of their big man if they want any chance of beating the Grizzlies on their home court.
Value Plays
Brandon Clarke (PF/C): $5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Clarke is significantly cheaper on DraftKings, so that’s where most of his value lies and where I’ll have more exposure. With Steven Adams (knee) out of the rotation, Clarke has been tasked with taking on a much larger role. He’s seen 25 or more minutes in the last two games while posting 15 or more raw points and 30 or more fantasy points in each. In his current role, Clarke should have no problem producing five times or more the return on investment.
Pat Connaughton (SF-MIL): $4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Connaughton has become an essential part of the Bucks’ rotation. The forward has scored 30 or more DKFP in three of his last four games and has consistently made his presence felt on the boards. In addition, he’s been red hot from behind the arc of late, knocking down 52.3% of his attempts over the last seven games. Going up against the Pelicans, who give up the sixth most three-point attempts in the NBA, I’ll bank on Connaughton staying hot and continuing to be one of the better value plays in fantasy hoops.
Thank you for reading another edition of the NBA DFS Primer by FantasyPros. If you enjoyed the content, please give me a follow on Twitter @ev_ritt3. All the love and support are greatly appreciated. Good luck in your contests tonight!
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