Jaguars vs. Chiefs: NFL DFS Lineup Advice (Saturday)

The Divisional Round is here as the DFS season marches on. This week presents a beautiful four-game slate with high-powered offenses and high total games. As I’ve mentioned previously, if a player isn’t mentioned in this write-up, they aren’t part of my player pool for the week. There are many ways to build lineups this week as we all look for ways to get different.

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NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Jaguars vs. Chiefs

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -8.5, O/U 52.5
• Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Trevor Lawrence: Despite tossing four picks last week, Lawrence was successful with his comeback efforts while tossing for 288 yards and four scores. Lawrence bounced back from three down weeks, which still doesn’t take away from the tear he has been on since Week 9. Over his last ten games, Lawrence has ranked second in PFF passing grade, fourth in adjusted completion rate, and second to only Josh Allen in big-time throws (minimum 150 dropbacks). Lawrence is a contrarian play on this slate, but if he becomes popular, I’m likely to fade him. Since Week 14, the Chiefs have been third in success rate per dropback, fifth in EPA per drop back, and second in yards per attempt allowed.

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is a fantasy point-scoring machine. Over his last 13 games played, he has ten outings with at least 23 DK points and six 30 DK point games. Mahomes is top-five in yards per attempt, fantasy points per dropback, passing touchdowns, and true passer rating. Jacksonville has been able to get after the quarterback this year, ranking fourth in pressure rate despite only sitting at 15th in blitz rate. Mahomes has been Superman against swarming rushers ranking fourth in pressured PFF passing grade, tenth in pressured yards per attempt, and seventh in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). Since Week 14, Jacksonville has ranked 14th in success rate per dropback, fourth in EPA per drop back, and 12th in explosive pass rate allowed. Despite the tough matchup, I’ll bet on Mahomes against any defense on the face of this planet.

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon is in play this week. One of the ways you attack this Jacksonville pass defense is with running backs in the passing game. Even last week, with his snaps dropping to 37%, he still retained a 41.2% route rate per dropback clip. Since Week 14, McKinnon has been an integral cog in the passing with a 17.1% target share, 48.2% route rate per drop back, and 2.74 yards per route run. He averaged 53 receiving yards with seven receiving touchdowns and a 32% target per route run mark. McKinnon can be played in a mini-stack with a Jacksonville player, stacked with Mahomes, or as a one-off if you’re looking to get exposure to this high total game around another game stack. Jacksonville has allowed the most receptions and fourth-highest receiving yards per game to running backs this season.

Christian Kirk: The attack point for passing attacks facing the Chiefs has been via the slot. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. They have recently changed their coverage assignments, but this remains one of Lawrence’s best avenues for moving the ball this week. Kirk had a 23.2% target share (24th) and 28.4% air yard share in the regular season. He was fifth in red zone targets and 12th in deep targets among wide receivers. Lawrence fed Kirk last week with 14 targets which he turned into eight grabs, 78 receiving yards, and a score in a tough assignment. Kirk torched this secondary in Week 10 with 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and he could easily do so again in Week 20. Kirk will run about 75% of his routes against Trent McDuffie, who has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 103.2 passer rating since transitioning to slot duties in Week 16.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Since his Week 13 return to full-time status, Smith-Schuster has had a 16.7% target share, a 20% end zone target share, and 12.4% air yard share. Smith-Schuster’s target share has been volatile with less than five targets in four of his last six games. Over that span, he also has two games with at least ten targets, so while the floor is low the weekly ceiling for work is still extremely high. Since Week 14, the Jaguars third in fantasy points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers, but they are only 18th in this metric against slot receivers. Since Week 16, Smith-Schuster has run about half of his routes from the slot. He has four games this season where he’s run at least 56% of his routes from the slot and this week could make for five. Andy Reid should load up Smith-Schuster with targets against Tre Herndon (69.2% catch rate, 119.5 passer rating).

Evan Engram: Evan Engram flipped a switch in Week 13. Since then, he has been an elite fantasy option with a 22.7% target share, 71.9 receiving yards per game, 15.6% air yard share, and 2.27 yards per route run. Engram has at least 90 receiving yards in three of his last seven games. Since Week 14, Kansas City has been 26th in fantasy points per game, 23rd in receiving yards per game, and tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Engram is one of the reasons that double tight-end lineups are viable this week.

Travis Kelce: Kelce ranked third in target share, third in air yard share, and eighth in deep targets. He leads the NFL in red zone targets. Kelce hasn’t managed to crest 50 receiving yards in his last two games, but this week will change the trend. Kelce had 81 receiving yards and a touchdown the last time he faced this defense. Jacksonville is one of the worst defenses in the NFL against tight ends. They rank 32nd in DVOA, 27th in catch rate, and 29th in receiving yards allowed to the position.

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.