The Primer: Wild Card Round Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

• CIN -8.5, O/U 40.5
• Ravens vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Joe Burrow: Burrow is tops in PFF passing grade while also ranking tenth in adjusted completion rate and ninth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Burrow is coming off a disappointing performance against this defense in Week 18 with 215 passing yards (one touchdown) and 5.1 yards per attempt. He could not light the Ravens up in their earlier season meeting either, with only 217 passing yards (6.2 yards per attempt) and one touchdown. I’m still willing to toss my chips in with Burrow against a defense that, since Week 14, has been 18th in success rate per dropback and 18th in EPA per dropback. Burrow has a path to a ceiling if he is willing to chuck it deep. Baltimore is 32nd in deep completion rate allowed. Burrow ranks eighth in deep completion rate and second in deep ball accuracy rating.

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase has crushed the Ravens over the last two seasons. He’s seen at least ten targets in each of the last four games surpassing 86 receiving yards three contests with two receiving touchdowns. Chase has a 29.3% target share (sixth-best), a 36.6% air yard share (ninth-best), and a 27.9% target per route run rate (13th). Chase ranks third in red zone targets and 20th in yards per route run. Since his Week 13 return, he is tied with Higgins for the team lead in deep targets. Chase will run about 81% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (65.7% catch rate, 71.7 passer rating) and Daryl Worley (50% catch rate, 98.8 passer rating). Burrow’s ceiling is tied to his alpha receiver, Chase.

Tee Higgins: Higgins has been quieter against the Ravens, with below 70 receiving yards and zero touchdowns in two of his last three full games against this defense. That doesn’t mean that he can’t pop off for a big game this week. Higgins has an 18.6% target share and a 27.9% air yard share. He ranks 25th in yards per route run and 22nd in open rate among wideouts. Single stacking Burrow this week is an option with only Chase, but if you pair two receiver options with Burrow, it’s a premium Chase and Higgins double for me. Higgins will run about 85% of his routes against Humphrey and Worley.

Mark Andrews: Andrews has had an up-and-down season. Injuries and a quarterback carousel muted his second half. The last time we saw him in Week 17, he was back on the good foot securing all nine targets with 100 receiving yards. Andrews has a 29.0% target share (first) and 31.5% air yard share (second-best). He is also fifth in deep targets, and fourth in red zone looks among tight ends. Since Week 14, Cincinnati has been 25th in fantasy points per game and 27th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.

SEA vs. SF | LAC vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | NYG vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | DAL vs. TB

Monday Game

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• DAL -2.5, O/U 45.5
• Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Dak Prescott: Prescott has been struggling mightily. He has dipped to 23rd in PFF passing grade, 23rd in adjusted completion rate, and 13th in turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). With all of that said, this is a good bounce-back spot for Prescott. Since Week 14, the Buccaneers have been 22nd in success rate per dropback and 26th in EPA per dropback. Tampa Bay’s love for the blitz could be their undoing (tenth in blitz rate). Prescott still ranks tenth in PFF passing grade, eighth in blitz-adjusted completion rate and eighth in blitzed yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). Prescott will be low rostered on the six-game slate, so he’ll be near the top of my board for GPPs.

Tom Brady: Brady gets to face a Cowboys’ secondary that’s been reeling. Since Week 14, they are 29th in EPA per dropback, 28th in success rate per drop back, and 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. This comes at the perfect time, as Brady finally seems to be putting it all together. Since Week 15, he’s been ninth in PFF passing grade, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and fifth in passing touchdowns (minimum 50 dropbacks).

Weeks 15, 16, & 18

Ezekiel Elliott: Over the last three games with Elliott and Pollard on the field, Elliott has averaged 14.3 touches and 47.3 total yards. He’s held a slight edge in red zone work while barely losing the route battle with Pollard. Elliott’s nine-game touchdown streak finally came to an end in Week 18. He ranks 48th in juke rate, 41st in breakaway run rate, and 44th in yards created as Dallas’s touchdown-scoring slug. Elliott’s touchdown equity (13th in red zone touches) puts him in play weekly. He faces a Buccaneers’ run defense that, since Week 14, has been tenth in rushing success rate, 21st in rushing yards, and 22nd in yards per carry allowed. I’ll get most of my Elliott exposure by playing showdown DFS with this game.

Tony Pollard: Since Week 15, Pollard has averaged 15 touches and 68.4 total yards. He’s carved out a little over half of the routes from Elliott in this period. Pollard’s big play ability puts him on the GPP radar and in play for captain in showdown every week. He’s fourth in yards per route run, fourth in breakaway run rate, and fight in yards per touch.

Weeks 16-17

Leonard Fournette: In Weeks 16-17, Fournette averaged 21.5 touches and 104.5 total yards playing 46-60% of the snaps. His playing time has jumped around a bit in recent weeks, but with another week of rest I expect Fournette to be a 60% snap player in Week 19. Fournette over the last two meaningful games he’s played with White, he’s retained his lead role in the passing game and red zone. Fournette is 22nd in evaded tackles, 38th in juke rate, and 52nd in breakaway run rate. He’s a volume play with 25 touch upside. Since Week 14, Dallas has been fourth in rushing success rate, third in EPA per rush, and sixth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Fournette is a contrarian captain play.

CeeDee Lamb: Alpha. Alpha. Alpha. Lamb is an alpha receiver. He just shut the door on one of the quietest 107 catch and 1,359 receiving yard seasons in recent memory. Lamb ranks ninth in target share, 14th in air yard share, and seventh in target per route run rate among wide receivers. He’s ninth in deep targets, 18th in red zone targets, and sixth in yards per route run. Lamb will run about 78% of his routes against Antoine Winfield Jr. (68.3% catch rate, 103.0 passer rating).

Chris Godwin: Godwin has a 21.8% target share and 16.8% air yard share. He ranks 18th in deep targets, sixth in YAC, and 38th in yards per route run. Before Week 18, Godwin hadn’t seen less than eight targets in a game since Week 5. Godwin will again be the apple of Brady’s eye, running about 66% of his routes against DaRon Bland (73.8% catch rate, 76.0 passer rating).

Russell Gage: If you’re wondering why you don’t see Mike Evans‘ name here, I expect Trevon Diggs to shadow him. The last time that happened in 2021, Diggs followed him on 51% of his routes, limiting Evans to one grab for ten yards. If Diggs is on Evans, Gage will see plenty of Nahshon Wright (65.2% catch rate, 75.8 passer rating) and Trayvon Mullen (82.4% catch rate, 137.3 passer rating). Since Week 15, Gage has played at least 53% of the snaps weekly with a 16.3% target share and 13.5% air yard share. Over that span he leads the team with a 36.4% endzone target share. I love Gage on the six-game slate as an overlooked GPP play. In showdown, he’s a contrarian or large field captain play.

Dalton Schultz: Schultz has commanded an 18.7% target share (tenth-best), 23.9% target per route run rate (ninth), and 16.0% air yard share (tenth-best). He is seventh in red zone targets and 17th in yards per route run. Schultz should be Prescott’s second option in the passing game against a defense that’s 24th in DVOA against tight ends. Since Week 14, the Bucs have been 22nd in catch rate and 27th in fantasy points allowed to inline tight ends (Schultz, 45.8% inline).

SEA vs. SF | LAC vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | NYG vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | DAL vs. TB

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.