The regular season concluded with a bang as the Green Bay Packers flopped their way out of the playoffs allowing the Seahawks to waltz in. Seeding and player rest scenarios unfolded.
As I stated in last week’s Primer, if a player isn’t mentioned in this writeup, they aren’t part of my DFS player pool. If you have questions about why I left anyone out, hop into our Discord, and I’ll be happy to explain why.
Now the bright lights of playoff football beam down upon this slate. Will Cinderella seasons continue? Will the studs worth paying up for in DFS carry me to the top or leave me crying into my couch in Week 19? Let’s find out.
Good luck in DFS, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards.
SEA vs. SF | LAC vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | NYG vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | DAL vs. TB
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The Primer: Wild Card Round Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)
Saturday Games
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy: Purdy is the quarterback play if you want to make your lineup auto-different. He should easily be the fourth-highest rostered quarterback on the two-game Saturday slate. If you’re playing the full six-game slate, he’ll be buried even further. Purdy is 13th in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Seattle is a perfect matchup for Purdy to shred. They are ranked 20th in yards per attempt, 29th in YAC, and 25th in missed tackles allowed. Purdy can play point guard and let his receivers pile up the fantasy points.
Weeks 10, 11, & 18
Christian McCaffrey: I’ll let the field sway me on how much McCaffrey will be in my lineups this week. If he’s popular, I’ll match the field or be underweight. In the last three games that he’s played with Mitchell (when he didn’t leave due to injury), McCaffrey has averaged 16.3 touches and 87.3 total yards. Yes, there is some noise in this sample with Week 18 being included, but this is a hefty price tag to pay for a running back that’s split the red zone work down the middle with Mitchell. McCaffrey is a leverage play, so if the field is off of him this week, I’ll be overweight, and vice versa. McCaffrey ranks 14th in evaded tackles, seventh in breakaway runs, and third in yards created. Since Week 14, Seattle has been 26th in fantasy points per game, 23rd in rushing success rate, and 30th in EPA per rush.
Elijah Mitchell: In the same span, Mitchell has averaged 10.6 rushing attempts and 67.3 rushing yards with a sizable red zone role. Mitchell has been explosive when he’s been healthy and available. He ranks 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 26th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 40 rushing attempts). Mitchell is a better FanDuel play than DraftKings with his non-existent pass-game role, but he’s viable on both sites. Mitchell will go overlooked on DraftKings as he’s priced in a range with some other intriguing pass-catching options. With a smash matchup incoming and two-touchdown upside, Mitchell is a fine GPP play.
Tyler Lockett: Lockett’s snap rate bounced back last week to 79%. This week, he should be the primary means for Chef Geno’s aerial attack. Lockett handled a 21.3% target share and 29.3% air yard share this season. He should lead the way in attacking the 49ers’ zone-based coverage scheme. San Francisco’s top corners have operated in zone on 62-67% of their snaps since Week 16. Lockett ranks 12th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run against zone (minimum 15 zone coverage targets). Lockett will run about 56% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (59.7% catch rate, 88.2 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (71.6% catch rate, 96.8 passer rating). Still, he has also seen 45% of his target volume from the slot, which means plenty of Jimmie Ward (81.4% catch rate, 94.0 passer rating).
Deebo Samuel: Samuel returned to the lineup to play 68% of the snaps with a 15.7% target share. Samuel’s snap share can be taken with a grain of salt as the 49ers were beating the brakes off the Cardinals. In Weeks 1-13, Samuel had a 24.1% target share and 16.2% air yard share (4.8 aDOT). Over that stretch, Samuel ranked 27th in PFF receiving grade and third in YAC per reception (minimum 20 targets). He saw 25% of his target volume from the slot and 26.3% of his target on screens. The name of the game for Kyle Shanahan this week should be to put Samuel in space against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most YAC and 11th-most missed tackles.
George Kittle: If Samuel isn’t carrying the San Francisco passing attack this week, it’ll be Kittle. Since Purdy has been the starter, Kittle has had a 22.2% target share and 23.9% air yard share. He’s scored seven touchdowns over his last four games. Kittle ranks third in PFF receiving grade, tenth in YAC per reception, and sixth in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Seattle ranks 27th in DVOA, 31st in receiving yards per game, and 32nd in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
SEA vs. SF | LAC vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | NYG vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | DAL vs. TB
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Justin Herbert: Herbert hasn’t surpassed 20 fantasy points since Week 11. Does he still carry a huge weekly ceiling that can explode in any game? Sure. Herbert is eighth in PFF passing grade, ninth in big-time throws, and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). This game carries a high total, so we expect some scoring here. That doesn’t mean it’s a smash matchup for Herbert. Since Week 14, Jacksonville has been 13th in success rate per dropback, third in EPA per drop back, and sixth in yards per attempt allowed. I’ll get my Herbert exposure if playing the two gamer for Saturday or in a large field GPP for the full six-game slate. Another ding to Herbert’s prospects this week came with Mike Williams getting ruled out. In Weeks 1-17, in games where Williams played less than 10% of snaps, Herbert’s yards per attempt dropped from 6.8 to 6.6.
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has remained on a heater since Week 9. He’s second in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, ninth in passing touchdowns and fifth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 14, the Chargers have been shutting down opposing quarterbacks. They have been fourth in yards per attempt, first in fantasy points per game, second in EPA per drop back, and second in success rate per dropback. Lawrence has been playing at such a high level that he’s in play despite the horrendous matchup, but this does make going away from the popular route of starting your builds with Herbert or Lawrence more palatable in favor of Purdy.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler has been a beast all year. He ranks first in weighted opportunities, first in red zone touches, and 13th in opportunity share. He leads all running backs in receptions, touchdowns, and expected fantasy points per game. Ekeler is also sixth in evaded tackles, 15th in breakaway runs, and fifth in yards created per touch. Since Week 14, Jacksonville has been 11th in rushing success rate, fifth in EPA per rush, and eighth in yards per carry allowed. Whatever efficiency Ekeler loses on the ground, he can make up through the air against a defense that’s been 27th in receiving yards per game and 21st in yards per reception allowed to running backs since Week 14.
Travis Etienne: Etienne could break the slate this week. Before facing the Titans’ stonewall run defense in Week 18, Etienne had averaged 19.4 touches and 126.3 total yards over his three previous starts. He ranks 16th in weighted opportunities, third in red zone touches, 14th in yards created per touch, and fourth in breakaway runs. Since Week 14, the Chargers ranked 21st in rushing yards per game, 26th in rushing success rate, and 29th in EPA per rush.
Keenan Allen: Since Week 11, Allen has garnered a 26.7% target share and 34.6% air yard share. Allen has managed at least 80 receiving yards in six of his last eight games. Over that span, he’s been seventh in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Allen will run about 64% of his routes against Rayshawn Jenkins (78.8% catch rate, 88.4 passer rating).
Zay Jones: Jones has a 21.0% target share and 24.3% air yard share. He’s tied for 13th in red zone targets in the NFL with Russell Gage and T.J. Hockenson. Jones has hit a slump recently, having not surpassed 25 receiving yards in his last three games. Jones ranks 40th out of 89 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Jones will run about 66% of his routes against Michael Davis (52.0% catch rate, 77.3 passer rating) and Asante Samuel Jr. (59.6% catch rate, 97.6 passer rating).
Gerald Everett: Everett is ninth among 29 qualifying tight ends in open rate. Since Donald Parham‘s return, Everett has had a 9.9% target share and 52.8% route per dropback rate. He’s fifth among tight ends in red zone targets. Everett could be in line for a big day against a defense that’s 32nd in DVOA, 25th in fantasy points per game, and 30th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
Donald Parham: Parham is in play. Yes, he’s a thinner play, but we have to find ways to get different on these small slates. Does he likely make my single-entry or three-max builds? No. Is he absolutely in play for MME or large field tournaments? Yep. Since his Week 15 return, Parham has only amassed a 5.6% target share, a 28.2% route run rate, and an 11.1% end zone target share. The matchup is golden for Parham, and there are small silver linings in his limited usage. Parham has been uber-efficient with 1.75 yards per route run while seeing a 9.1 aDOT.
SEA vs. SF | LAC vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | NYG vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | DAL vs. TB
Sunday Games
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen: Since Week 9, Allen has been fifth in PFF passing grade, tenth in passing yards, 22nd in adjusted completion rate, and 21st in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). His rushing equity has been covering up for any shortcomings as a passer. Over his last nine games, he’s averaged 50.7 rushing yards per game with six rushing touchdowns. He has surpassed 20 fantasy points per game in five of his last six games with two massive games (29.9 and 35.8 fantasy points). Since Week 14, the Dolphins have been a middle-of-the-road pass defense. Over the last five weeks, they have been 24th in pass defense DVOA, 15th in success rate per drop back, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Weeks 16-18
Jeff Wilson: Since Wilson’s return in Week 16, he’s played 60-65% of snaps averaging 15.3 touches and 63.3 total yards. Wilson ranks 37th in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway rate, and 29th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). Since Week 14, the Bills have been 19th in rushing yards per game, 27th in yards per carry, and eighth in rushing success rate allowed. With Mostert out, Wilson could push north of 65% of the snaps, but don’t be surprised if his snaps stay the same, with Salvon Ahmed working in for 30-35% of the snaps. Wilson will be the clear lead, though.
Tyreek Hill: Hill in an interesting GPP play. The quarterback situation surrounding him will keep his roster percentage in check, but Hill has the talent to pop off any week even with a limited signal caller. He saw a 22.5% target share last week with 55 receiving yards. Hill has a 32.3% (second-best) target share and 39.8% air yard share (third-best) this season. He leads the NFL in deep targets while ranking fifth in open rate. Hill will run about 54% of his routes against Tre’Davious White (53.3% catch rate, 70.7 passer rating), Dane Jackson (61.3% catch rate, 86.1 passer rating), and Kaiir Elam (75.6% catch rate, 98.9 passer rating).
Stefon Diggs: Diggs has a 28.2% target share (tenth), a 32.6% air yard share (15th), and a 30.3% target per route run rate (seventh-best). He ranks fourth in red zone targets and 18th in deep targets. Diggs remains among the league’s elite sitting at seventh in open rate. Xavien Howard has only followed Diggs on 49-51% of his routes in their two meetings this season. Howard (since Week 12: 66.7% catch rate, 85.7 passer rating) did limit him to five receptions (eight targets) and 66 receiving yards total. When Diggs isn’t matched with Howard, he’ll see Keion Crossen (56.3% catch rate, 104.7 passer rating) for much of the day.
Khalil Shakir: Isaiah McKenzie looks doubtful to play this week despite being listed as questionable. McKenzie logged back-to-back DNPS to close the week (hamstring). Cole Beasley has been added to the active roster, and Jamison Crowder is back practicing, but if McKenzie is out, I expect Shakir to take over the bulk of the slot work for Buffalo. In Weeks 15-16, with McKenzie, Beasley, and Shakir all active, Shakir ran 20 routes versus Beasley’s ten. In Shakir’s only full game of action this year (Week 5), he played 70% of snaps with a 13.9% target share, 75 receiving yards (one touchdown), and 3.4 yards per route run. Shakir will be overlooked this week by the field. He’s the perfect differentiator for your Allen stacks. Shakir will run about 58% of his routes against Kader Kohou (65.1% catch rate, 80.7 passer rating). Since Week 14, Miami has been 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to slot receivers.
Dawson Knox: Knox has a 13.3% target share, ranking 30th in yards per route run and 19th in red zone targets. He smashed this soft matchup in Week 15, securing six of his eight targets with 98 receiving yards and a touchdown. Knox is primed for another big stat line this week. Miami is 30th in DVOA, 32nd in catch rate, and 24th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.
SEA vs. SF | LAC vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | NYG vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | DAL vs. TB
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Daniel Jones: Jones has been an efficient passer which has helped create a solid floor for his fantasy production. Jones is 20th in PFF passing grade and first in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). He has displayed a passing ceiling when he’s been pushed with two 300-yard outings and four weeks with multiple passing touchdowns. Jones tossed for 334 yards the last time he faced the Vikings. Jones’ 44.3 rushing yards per game, seven rushing touchdowns, and four weeks with at least 70 rushing yards have given him slate breaking upside. Jones is a fantastic GPP and cash-game quarterback. Since Week 14, the Vikings have been 19th in success rate per dropback, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins’ ripped this secondary apart during their last meeting with 299 yards, three passing scores, and a 70.8% completion rate. Cousins has balled out all season, ranking ninth in PFF passing grade, 13th in adjusted completion rate, and seventh in big-time throws (minimum 100 dropbacks). Cousins has three games with at least 357 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. Since Week 14, the Giants have been 12th in EPA per dropback, 23rd in fantasy points per game, and 17th in explosive pass rate allowed.
Saquon Barkley: Barkley is the straw that stirs the Giants’ drink averaging 22.0 touches and 103.1 total yards per game. Barkley is third in opportunity share, fourth in weighted opportunities, and 15th in red zone touches. He juked his way to sixth in evaded tackles, second in breakaway runs, and fifth in yards created. Since Week 14, the Vikings’ run defense has been 18th in rushing success rate, 20th in EPA per rush, and 20th in rushing yards per game allowed. In Week 16, Barkley rolled up 22 touches and 133 total yards against this defense.
Dalvin Cook: Cook should be a full-go this week. He was dinged up last week but hasn’t been on the injury report this week. He’s been practicing in full, so I expect him to handle his usual allotment of touches. Cook has averaged 18.7 touches and 92.4 total yards this season. He saw 17 opportunities turning them into only 77 total yards the last time out against this defense. Cook is 15th in evaded tackles, 15th in breakaway runs, and 14th in yards created. While Cook has seen as many as 26 touches in a game, the team has been hesitant to feed him monster volume as he only has five games this season with at least 20 carries. Cook remains in play for GPPs because of the state of the Giants’ run defense. Since Week 14, the Giants have been 28th in rushing yards per game, 32nd in EPA per rush, and 32nd in explosive run rate allowed.
Darius Slayton: Since Week 7, Slayton has had a 19.5% target share, 14.3% end zone target share, and a 36.6% air yard share. He’s performed quite well this season ranking 23rd in yards per route run and 18th in open rate. The issue for Slayton has been and remains his lack of high value usage. He ranks 48th in deep targets and 106th in red zone targets (three). Slayton secured four of his six targets for 79 scoreless receiving yards against this defense in Week 16. Slayton is a game stack or staking option with Jones. He’ll run about 71% of his routes against Duke Shelley (48.8% catch rate, 57.9 passer rating), Patrick Peterson (58.9% catch rate, 66.8 passer rating), and Kris Boyd (80% catch rate, 127.1 passer rating).
Richie James: In Weeks 14-17, James had a (team-leading) 25% target share, a 31.3% air yard share, and 2.05 yards per route run. He has at least 60 receiving yards in three of his last four games, with a pair of touchdowns. James is a priority play that will run about 92% of his routes against Chandon Sulivan (79.1% catch rate, 108.5 passer rating). The Vikings have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season.
Isaiah Hodgins: Since Week 13, Hodgins has had a 21.8% target share, a 75% end zone target share, a 33.5% air yard share, and 1.50 yards per route run. Yes, you read that correctly, a 75% end zone target share which Hodgins has made the most of with touchdowns in four of his last five games. Hodgins ran 41% of his routes from the slot in Week 17, so while he’s primarily a boundary receiver that will match up Shelley, Peterson, and Boyd, he will also see plenty of Sullivan.
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson lit this secondary on fire in Week 16 with 12 receptions, 133 receiving yards, and a score. Jefferson likely does it again this week. He is seventh in target share, eighth in air yard share, ninth in deep targets, and first in red zone targets. Jefferson will run about 64% of his routes against Cordale Flott (69.6% catch rate, 106.8 passer rating) and Rodarius Williams (62.5 catch rate, 59.6 passer rating). Adoree’ Jackson’s return is a wild card this week. Jackson could be on a snap count, but if he’s fully healthy, he could shadow Jefferson. Jackson (57.3% catch rate, 85.3 passer rating) has shadowed four times this season following Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, CeeDee Lamb, and Robbie Anderson on 65-91% of their routes. Only Lamb surpassed 50 receiving yards and scored against Jackson’s shadow treatment. Lamb is the closest example in talent level to Jefferson, so this isn’t a reason to fade Jefferson. It’s notable, though.
K.J. Osborn: Since Week 15, Osborn has been asserting himself in this passing attack with a 20.3% target share and 20.9% air yard share. Over his last four games, he has two scores and three games with at least 59 receiving yards (two 100-yard outings). Since Week 15, he has had five red zone targets. He will run about 54% of his routes against Nick McCloud (61.9% catch rate, 106.0 passer rating). Osborn is a fantastic pivot option on the six-game slate off of more popular wide receivers around him in pricing.
T.J. Hockenson: In Weeks 9-17 as a Viking, Hockenson has had a 23.4% target share, a 30.4% end zone target share (second to only Jefferson over this span), and a 20.7% air yard share. Hockenson has at least 77 receiving yards in two of the last four full games he has played. New York has been 31st in DVOA, 30th in catch rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
SEA vs. SF | LAC vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | NYG vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | DAL vs. TB
