Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

• NO -3.5, O/U 41.5
• Cowboys vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, but each team would most likely want to close out the season on a positive note with a win. Each should continue to run out their starters as they have been doing.

Week 17

D’Onta Foreman: Last week was a down week in the Foreman rollercoaster saga. That means the train is due for one more exhilarating ride before returning to the station, right? As I’ve outlined in previous Primers, Foreman has been an all-or-nothing play. Since Week 8 (nine games), he has had four games with at least 21 carries and 113 rushing yards, but in four other games in this sample, he didn’t reach 14 carries or 40 rushing yards. Foreman is 14th in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in breakaway rate, and 29th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 75 carries). Since Week 12, New Orleans has been 22nd in rushing success rate, 23rd in EPA per rush, and 19th in yards per carry allowed.

D.J. Moore: With Darnold under center, Moore has had a 29.9% target share, a 45.5% end zone target share, and a 57.3% air yard share. Since Week 12, Moore has been sixth in PFF receiving grade, fifth in yards per reception, and fourth in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). In that five-game span, he has four weeks with at least 73 receiving yards and six red zone targets (four touchdowns). Moore will run about 70% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (55.6% catch rate, 57.6 passer rating) and Alontae Taylor (46.0% catch rate, 59.2 passer rating).

Chris Olave: Olave returned from his one-game injury hiatus to earn a 21.7% target share, a 36.4% air yard share, and a 93.5% route run rate. Olave ranks tenth in open rate, fifth in deep targets and tenth in yards per route run among wide receivers. Olave will run about 66% of his routes against Keith Taylor (76.7% catch rate, 139.4 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (71.6% catch rate, 112.3 passer rating).

Rashid Shaheed: Since Week 13, Shaheed has had a 22.6% target share (leads the team), a 28.7% air yard share, and an 84.8% route run rate. Over his last four games, he ranks 11th in PFF receiving grade, sixth in YAC per reception, and second in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Shaheed was clocked at 20.0 MPH on a punt return in Week 13. The blazing speed is real. Shaheed will run about 73% of his routes against Taylor and Henderson.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• PIT -3, O/U 40
• Browns vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Browns have been eliminated from the playoffs. The Steelers can possibly sneak into the playoffs with a win and losses by Miami and New England. Investing in the Browns’ passing attack has been a losing proposition for much of the back half of the season, but the Steelers have some vulnerabilities that David Njoku can exploit. The same can be said for believing in the arm of Kenny Pickett, so I’m out on the Steelers’ aerial options.

Najee Harris: Harris has looked like a different back down the stretch. Since Week 10, he’s averaged 19.6 touches and 87.5 total yards. Over his last eight games, he ranks 20th in yards after contact per attempt, third in missed tackles forced, and eighth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 rushing attempts). Since Week 12, the Browns have been 17th in rushing success rate, 21st in rushing yards per game, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed.

David Njoku: With Watson under center, Njoku has had a 21.3% target share (5.8 targets per game), 80.3% route run rate, and 1.11 yards per route run. Njoku has nine red zone targets over his last four games. His touchdown equity in this offense has been massive even though, to this point, it’s only amounted to one score. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has been 27th in catch rate, 23rd in fantasy points per game, and 24th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

• LAC -3, O/U 40
• Chargers vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot, but they lock up the No. 5 seed with a win against Denver or a loss by Baltimore. Brandon Staley has stated, “There’s certainly an advantage to being the five seed from where I stand, so we’re going to try and get there.” If Baltimore loses their game, played earlier in the day, the Chargers may limit or sit their starters as they will have the fifth seed locked down. I’m expecting the Bengals to crush the Ravens, so I’m fading the Chargers on this slate. Denver has been an abysmal offense for much of the year. With Jerry Jeudy moving back into the slot last week (59% of snaps) and Russell Wilson remaining terrible, you can count me out on the Broncos’ offense this week.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -14, O/U 43
• Cowboys vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Eagles need a win to lock up the No. 1 seed and the NFC East title. I expect Jalen Hurts to return to lead his team. The Giants have no reason to push their starters here. They are locked into the No. 6 seed, no matter the outcome. I’m fading New York.

Jalen Hurts: The QB1 in fantasy returns for a motivated battle with the Giants. Hurts finished this season top-ten in yards per attempt, fantasy points per dropback, and accuracy rating. His rushing upside could be curtailed this week as he protects his healing shoulder, but that doesn’t mean Hurts can’t still produce sexy passing numbers through the air. Hurts has tossed for 300-plus yards four times this season, including in two of his last three starts. Hurts also has three games this season with three or more passing touchdowns. Since Week 12, the Giants have been 18th in EPA per dropback, 16th in passing yards per game, and 19th in explosive pass rate allowed. Hurts was limited in practice all week (shoulder) and has been listed as questionable.

Miles Sanders: Since Week 12, Sanders has averaged 16.6 touches and 85.6 total yards per game. Last week he played his lowest snap mark (40%) of the season, so there’s some risk here that the Eagles limit him. If they don’t, then Sanders can smash. He torched this run defense with 144 rushing yards and two scores in Week 14. Sanders ranks third in red zone touches, 12th in evaded tackles, and 12th in breakaway runs. Since Week 12, the Giants have ranked 27th in rushing success rate, 29th in rushing yards per game, and 32nd in explosive run rate allowed.

A.J. Brown: Brown is ninth in target share, eighth in air yard share, and tenth in target per route run rate among wide receivers. He’s also seventh in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets. The last time he played against the Giants, he secured four of his six targets with 70 receiving yards and a score. Brown will run about 74% of his routes against Fabian Moreau (62.7% catch rate, 107.0 passer rating), Nick McCloud (61.5% catch rate, 107.5 passer rating), and Cordale Flott (76.5% catch rate, 121.9 passer rating).

DeVonta Smith: Since Goedert’s return, Smith has maintained heavy usage in the offense. Over the last two games, he has had a 37.9% target share, a 66.7% end zone target share, and a 41.4% air yard share. Smith ranks 12th in yards per route run, 17th in open rate, and 13th in deep targets. He will run about 76% of his routes against Moreau, McCloud, and Flott.

Dallas Goedert: Since returning to the starting lineup, Goedert has filed in behind Brown and Smith for targets with a 13.5% target share (4.5 targets per game). The positive is that he has been playing every down with an 87.3% route run rate. It also has to be mentioned that the last two teams the Eagles have played have been strong against tight ends all season (DAL, NO). That’s definitely not the case with the Giants, who are 30th in catch rate, 24th in fantasy points per game, and 20th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Double stacking Hurts with Sanders, and Goedert is an easy way to be different with this slate and separate yourself from other Hurts stacks.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB