Every offseason is filled with hits and misses in fantasy football and some are more palatable than others. Drafting Josh Jacobs at what in hindsight was a big discount carried teams to the playoffs, but who else did the expert consensus rankings get wrong, and how badly were the wrongs, it’s time to reflect on the misses and celebrate the hits of 2022’s rankings.

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Fantasy Football Hits, Misses & 2023 Takeaways

Hits

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) (4th overall ECR+2 vs. ADP)

Small margins make big differences in the first round of fantasy drafts and the ECR had Justin Jefferson ranked two spots above his ADP. Wherever you took Jefferson you got the WR1 and a true league winner. The enthusiasm from the ECR paid off.

Josh Allen (QB – BUF) (34th overall ECR-13 vs. ADP)

Drafting the first quarterback off the board always feels like a risk and the ECR had Josh Allen 13 spots lower than his ADP was. Both the ADP and ECR agreed that Allen was the QB1, but the difference in drafting him where the ECR was would have allowed you another shot at a top-tier skill player. Allen’s QB3 finish in points per game might not have killed your fantasy team, but waiting and taking Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts would have been a better move for your roster. This one is a win for the ECR because it knew that Allen going 34th overall was too early.

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) (163rd overall ECR +82 vs. ADP)

The ECR had Daniel Jones at 163rd overall, still down as the QB22 but 82 spots ahead of his ADP and even that wasn’t high enough as Daniel Jones finished as the QB11 in fantasy points per game. With an upgraded coaching staff it always felt possible that Jones could have a better fantasy season and the ECR nailed it.

Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE) (122nd overall ECR +76 vs. ADP)

In 2021 Jakobi Meyers suffered from a severe lack of touchdowns and the ECR was confident that he could return value ahead of ADP if he positively regressed. Meyer’s had almost as many yards as he did in 2021 and added four more touchdowns than the two he scored in 2021. Meyers finished as the WR34 in half PPR formats.

Evan Engram (TE – JAX) (156th overall ECR +72 vs. ADP)

The wider public was skeptical on Evan Engram this offseason but the ECR had Engram having a resurgence with him finally being free of the bad coaching that had hung over him in New York. Engram finished as the TE8 in points per game, 14 spots above where he sat positionally in ADP.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – CLE) (201st overall +57 vs. ADP)

Last offseason Donovan Peoples-Jones was barely drafted but the ECR saw that he could be the WR2 and have some value, which he certainly did, finishing as the WR36 thanks to a run of games between Weeks 4 and 14 where he scored single-digit points on only two occasions.

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) (125th overall +38 vs. ADP)

During Herbert’s rookie season, he flashed enough that the signs were visible that he could take a bigger role in year two. Herbert showed that he’s a more explosive and dynamic running back than David Montgomery, who is now a free agent and Herbert could be a star in 2023.

Justin Fields (QB – CHI) (129th overall +30 vs. ADP)

The ECR was ready for the Justin Fields breakout, ranking him nearly three rounds ahead of ADP, and in hindsight, perhaps even that wasn’t high enough. Fields will be one of the biggest climbers in 2023 ADP after nine top-twelve performances in a team depleted of weapons.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA) (142nd overall -15 vs. ADP)

The writing appeared to be on the wall for Mike Gesicki when the offense changed hands this offseason. Gesicki is a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end and with improvements at WR he was always going to be surplus to requirements, finishing with 28 receptions and as the TE32 in points per game, the only thing the ECR got wrong was not being low enough on him.

Misses

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) (55th overall -5 vs. ADP)

There is nobody that the collective fantasy football community missed on harder than Josh Jacobs. The warning signs last offseason were plentiful, but perhaps we should have had more faith in a player entering a contract year. Jacobs was the 55th player off the board, and the ECR had him five spots lower than that. Will the ECR get Jacobs right in 2023?

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND) (27th overall +2 vs. ADP)

Things could have worked out differently for Pittman if he had Matt Ryan under center all season. In those games, he was on pace for a top-fifteen finish at the position, but the dysfunction in Indianapolis saw him drop to the WR25 in points per game. This a significant drop for someone drafted in the third round, who the ECR was two spots ahead of ADP on.

Tyreek Hill (WR -MIA) (25th overall -5 vs. ADP)

Tyreek Hill has always created extra points for himself through the dynamic way he plays and ADP and the ECR got him wrong this season, but the ECR in particular whiffed with Hill five spots behind ADP. Hill finished as the WR2 with the second-most targets while leading the league in deep targets.

Robbie Anderson (WR – ARI) (166th overall +72 vs. ADP)

In 2022 Robbie Anderson scored an average of 3.3 PPR points in the 16 games he played. There are very few players who underperformed to the extent Anderson did. The ECR was bullish on Anderson, ranking him a huge 72 spots ahead of ADP, believing that Baker Mayfield might be an upgrade. Instead, both Anderson flopped and quickly hit the waiver wires.

Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN) (134th overall +67 vs. ADP)

With a new coaching staff in Minnesota, many believed that Irv Smith could take the leap and be a top-twelve tight end, ranking him 67 spots ahead of his ADP. Instead, Smith managed 7.3 points per game and only one top-twelve performance as he dropped too many high-value targets and eventually got injured.

Nico Collins (WR – HOU) (151st overall +59 vs. ADP)

2021 was a largely positive year for the Texans with Davis Mills looking good enough that he had some people thinking he could be the Texans’ quarterback going forward. The team regressed heavily in 2022 though and Nico Collins managed a single weekly finish inside the top 24 wide receivers. The ECR saw him as a perfect compliment to this offense and was five full rounds ahead of ADP on him.

Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI) (58th overall +22 vs. ADP)

Sometimes it can be easy to get swept up in ‘someone has to catch the ball’ thinking but this year we saw further evidence that isn’t always the case. Darnell Mooney flashed with a couple of highlight catches on deep balls, but this Bears offense wasn’t functional enough in the passing game to support him and he wasn’t able to command targets in the way some had hoped. Mooney was two full rounds ahead of ADP in the ECR and both should have been lower in hindsight, as using a fifth-round pick on a player in a poor offense turned out very badly.

Who did you miss badly on this year? Find me on Twitter @NFL_Tstrack and let me know your best hits and misses.

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