The fantasy season is over, but for dynasty league managers, this is the best time to shake up your roster. The stretch between the end of the NFL regular season and the NFL draft is when a lot of trades in dynasty leagues are made.
There are a lot of factors to consider when we are looking at who to trade for, but there are a lot of common mistakes people make when considering these factors. Most people gravitate toward trading for a specific player or rookie pick, which in a vacuum, seems fine. However, any trade that is made needs to be done so in an effort to deliberately improve your team, so the targets mentioned below need to fit what you are looking for. Some of these targets shouldn’t break the bank, and all five of these players are ones who I think are undervalued relative to their short-term ceiling.
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Five Dynasty Trade Targets
Every week that Brock Purdy leads San Francisco to another win clouds Trey Lance’s future in San Francisco. We are now at a point where there is legitimacy to the idea that Purdy, not Lance, will be the starter for the 49ers on opening day in 2023.
In the event that happens, what does it mean for Lance’s dynasty stock? That is a tricky question, even without the Purdy factor and the fact he is coming off an ACL injury. Lance’s NFL debut was an uneven one as he stumbled out of the gate in the opener against Chicago completing just 13 of 28 passes for 164 yards and an interception. However, he did rush for 54 yards which is where a lot of Lance’s perceived value is derived from, as he has the rushing upside we covet.
As we’ve seen with Purdy, Kyle Shanahan can squeeze every ounce of talent from a quarterback. So, despite the rough start in 2022, there is no reason to think Lance would have been at least an upside QB2. Even if Lance is traded or begins the year backing up Purdy, it is just a matter of time before he is given the reigns of an NFL offense. I wouldn’t target Lance outside of a SuperFlex/2QB format, but if you can get him for anything less than a first-round pick, that should be a smash accept.
Khalili Herbert was a capable fill-in for David Montgomery in his rookie season, finishing with back-to-back RB1 weeks when Montgomery was out with an injury. He followed that up with another strong season in 2022, which should have him on your radar right now. Montgomery is set to become a free agent, and it is unlikely he will be back with the Bears. That would put Herbert in a position to be the lead back in Chicago, a potentially profitable spot for fantasy managers.
Herbert has seven games with 10+ PPR points in his career, mostly in a shared backfield. He has averaged 13.9 PPR points in three starts, which would make him a rock-solid RB2. I believe Herbert has a legitimate chance to see a 60% (or more) snap share next season, which would give him an RB1 ceiling. With Chicago having plenty of cap space and draft capital to build around Justin Fields, we should see this offense take a step forward in 2023. Acquiring Herbert is a way to get a piece of the offense without breaking the bank, and he is a great piece to add to winter trade talks.
No wide receiver in football ran as poorly as Diontae Johnson in 2022. He set an NFL record that no one would want, finishing with 147 targets without scoring a single touchdown. While touchdowns are a noisy stat (Jerick McKinnon scored nine receiving touchdowns on 71 targets out of the backfield), we should expect to see Johnson score at least once based on volume alone. While he finished as the PPR WR29 this year, he was just two touchdown catches away from being the WR24 which makes his year look a lot less disappointing.
Touchdown variance aside, Johnson should bounce back in 2023. While the Steelers have made the inexplicable decision to bring Matt Canada back, he’s been a net positive for Johnson. He has target counts of 144, 169 and 147, with Canada being involved as the play caller. Only a handful of receivers in the NFL can command that type of target share. One of the league’s best route runners, Johnson should benefit from Kenny Pickett being in his second year under center as well. Though Pittsburgh may not be a juggernaut offensively in 2023, Johnson is a slam dunk to bounce back. Grab him now while the sour taste of his 2022 season is still fresh in his manager’s mouth.
Sometimes the art of trading has as much to do with determining who is available as it does with their value. For example, if you are in a dynasty league where Kyle Pitts is being dangled, there’s a good chance the manager who has him is either frustrated, looking for someone to overpay, or both. If someone is looking for an overpay, ignore that and move on. But if you are in a league with a frustrated manager looking to move Pitts, this is a no-brainer.
Pitts has been a polarizing player in his first two years in the league. First, the lack of touchdowns in his rookie season put a blemish on an otherwise tremendous year. Then an injury cut short what was an already disappointing 2022 campaign. Still, Pitts is just a year removed from a 110-target, 1000-yard season. That type of production is hard to find at fantasy’s weakest position, and Pitts might be the most physically gifted player at the position in the entire league.
While Atlanta will remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, there aren’t many options in the passing game outside of Pitts and Drake London. In fact, Pitts still managed to finish 2nd on the team in targets despite missing the final seven games of the year. Atlanta has the potential to have one of the most condensed offenses in the league next season, and getting Pitts at any type of discount makes a ton of sense.
Putting another tight end in the article might be taboo, but there is a good reason for it. Chigoziem Okonkwo is a guy I want on as many rosters as I can get him on. While it took until Week 12 for Okonkwo to be fully involved in the offense, once Tennessee bumped his snap share, he was targeted on 33% of his routes. He also led all tight ends in fantasy points per route run and yards per catch this year. The trouble is, he only had 32 receptions, but for a guy who only had two games with a better than 50% snap share, there is a lot of meat on the bone.
Tennessee will have Austin Hooper back in the fold in 2023, but Okonkwo offers them versatility that Hooper does not. From a formational standpoint, Okonkwo lined up in the backfield, split out wide, and as an in-line tight end. The Titans have a dearth of talent on the offensive side of the ball (Robert Woods is a pre-June one cut candidate), so Okonkwo could find himself as the second option in the passing game behind Treylon Burks in 2023. He is my favorite tight end target this offseason.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.
