Cowboys vs. 49ers: NFL DFS Lineup Advice (Sunday)

The Divisional Round is here as the DFS season marches on. This week presents a beautiful four-game slate with high-powered offenses and high total games. As I’ve mentioned previously, if a player isn’t mentioned in this write-up, they aren’t part of my player pool for the week. There are many ways to build lineups this week as we all look for ways to get different.

Good luck in your DFS contests, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards.

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NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Cowboys vs. 49ers

Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -3.5, O/U 46
• Cowboys vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Dak Prescott: Prescott silenced some doubters last week logging the highest PFF passing grade, second-highest yards per attempt, and highest adjusted completion rate among quarterbacks. Talent and weekly upside has never been the question. Prescott ranks 11th in fantasy points per dropback, 13th in accuracy, and 13th in yards per attempt. Prescott gets a 49ers’ pass defense that has looked middle-of-the-road over the last few games. Since Week 14, San Francisco has been 17th in success rate per dropback, 11th in EPA per dropback, and 20th in yards per attempt allowed. Prescott is a strong GPP gamble because some gamers will be hesitant to roster him as they tell themselves “well, it’s only one good game.”

Brock Purdy: Purdy flashed a ceiling last week that we had previously not seen. He posted 34.9 fantasy points with his first 300 yards passing day, a season-high 11.1 yards per attempt, and the second game in a row with three passing scores. Purdy ranks 13th in PFF passing grade, second in yards per attempt, and 13th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 150 dropbacks). Purdy faces a Dallas secondary that shut down a floundering Buccaneers passing attack last week. Let’s not pretend that the Cowboys have been playing good defense though over the last few weeks. Since Week 14 they have been 23rd in success rate per dropback, 24th in EPA per dropback, and 27th in passing yards per game, and 21st in explosive pass rate allowed.

Weeks 18-19

Christian McCaffrey: Last week McCaffrey played 74% of the snaps with 17 touches and 146 total yards. He remains the clear leader of this backfield despite almost evenly splitting the red zone work since Week 18 with Mitchell. McCaffrey ranks 16th in evaded tackles, 19th in breakaway run rate, and eighth in fantasy points per opportunity. Since Week 14, Dallas has been fifth in rushing success rate, third in EPA per rush, and 25th in yards per reception against running backs. McCaffrey should play 70% of the snaps while flirting with 20-25 touches. That type of volume and three down skillset is difficult to fade on any slate.

Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell is a large field or MME play. He has averaged 19% of the snaps, eight touches, and 41 total yards since Week 18. His saving grace has been heavy red zone usage and three scores over this span. Mitchell has run well this season with at least 2.89 yards after contact per attempt in five of his six games played.

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is a target-demanding alpha receiver. He ranks ninth in target share, seventh in target per route run rate, and 14th in air yard share. He is ninth in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets. Lamb ranks sixth in yards per route run and fifth in open rate. The 49ers remain a zone-heavy defense, with their outside corner duo operating in zone on 78% of their coverage snaps last week. Lamb ranks 19th in PFF receiving grade and ninth in yards per route run against zone (minimum 15 zone targets). Lamb will run about 62% of his routes against Jimmie Ward (81.7% catch rate, 93.9 passer rating). The 49ers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Lamb is the priority stacking option with Prescott and is one-off viable.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel exploded with a 32.1% target share last week with nine targets and 133 receiving yards (one touchdown). He’s primed to build upon that stellar game this week. Last week Dallas operated in zone coverage on 65-71% of their snaps. Samuel has logged 71.1% of his target volume against zone while ranking tenth in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum 15 zone targets). Samuel will run about 60% of his routes against Trevon Diggs (68.9% catch rate, 99.3 passer rating) and Xavier Rhodes (58.3% catch rate, 73.3 passer rating).

Dalton Schultz: Since Week 14, Schultz has had a 21.1% target share, a 21.4% end zone target share, an 83.1% route run rate, and 1.63 yards per route run. The 49ers’ zone-based defense will help Schultz. Schultz has seen 59.6% of his targets against zone, ranking 15th in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets). Schultz ranks seventh in red zone targets. Since Week 14, the 49ers have been giving to tight ends ranking 27th in catch rate, 24th in receiving yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per game.

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.